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The Nevada Playing
Field
By Professor Michael Bowers of University of Neveda
July 1, 2000 -- For most voters in Nevada, the federal races will be
the most visible ones; two House seats and an open U.S. Senate seat will
be on the ballot. In addition, half of the upper house (Senate) and all
of the lower house (Assembly) of the state legislature will be up for
election in 2000. The stateís six constitutional officers (governor,
lieutenant governor, attorney general, secretary of state, controller,
treasurer) were elected in 1998 and will, thus, not be competing in the
2000 elections. However, three supreme court justices (out of seven) will
be up for election.
U.S. SENATE
As expected, the competition for the open Senate seat being vacated by
Democrat Richard Bryan has come down to two major candidates. Personal
injury attorney and Democrat Ed Bernstein faces no primary opponent while
former member of Congress John Ensign faces two unknowns in the Republican
primary. In addition, four minor party candidates have also joined the
fray; the Libertarian, Independent American, and Citizens First candidates
can be expected to take a few votes in the general election that might
otherwise have gone to Ensign while the Green Party candidate will likely
siphon some off of Bernstein. As of summer 2000, however, the race does
not appear to be a close one and any votes garnered by these four minor
party candidates is unlikely to change the outcome of the election. In
the most recent public poll (March) Ensign led Bernstein by a 54-32 margin
with 14 percent undecided. Clearly the race will tighten as Bernstein,
a political neophyte, becomes better known by the voters and Ensignís
record as a member of Congress is targeted. Likewise, the issues likely
to affect the race are advantageous to Bernstein: in a pro-choice state
that is highly unionized and increasingly made up of retirees, he favors
a woman's right to an abortion, labor unions, and providing prescription
drug help to seniors.
At the same time, Bernstein lags far behind Ensign in campaign contributions.
Compared to the more than $2 million raised by Ensign, Bernstein has raised
slightly more than $1 million, with half that in the form of personal
loans he has made to the campaign. In part this gap is explainable by
the small number of donations the Democrat has received from the stateís
chief industry and campaign funding source: gaming. Although Bernstein
has received some donations from members of the gaming industry, Ensignís
status as the son of the chair of the Mandalay Resort Group (formerly
Circus Circus) has allowed him to sew up most of that powerful blocís
largesse. Bernstein also suffers from a lack of charisma that characterizes
Ensign, who is handsome, gregarious, articulate, and self-assured. Given
that Ensign lost to incumbent and Senate Minority Whip Harry Reid by only
a few hundred votes in 1998, the election appears to be his to lose, thus
further setting back the Democrats' plans to retake the U.S. Senate.
U.S. HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES
The race for the 1st Congressional District (Las Vegas) is expected
to be a heated and expensive one given that the national Republican party
has targeted it as one they believe can be taken from the Democrats. Incumbent
Shelley Berkley faces no challengers in the primary while her major opponent,
State Senator John Porter, has two. One is a little-known and underfunded
school teacher while the other is a former university regent with numerous
political connections and an ability to raise campaign funds. It is, however,
unlikely that Porter will be defeated in the primary by either. In addition,
candidates are being put forward by the Libertarian, Independent American,
and Citizens First parties, all of whom will likely take votes away from
the Republican candidate in the general election. Further complicating
the Republican plan is the fact that the district is heavily Democratic
and that Berkley is a prodigious fundraiser who had raised over $1.25
million by April. Porter's half-million dollars pales in comparison and
is complicated by its source. He has relied on House Republican leaders
Dennis Hastert, Dick Armey, and Tom Delay to raise money for his campaign.
Unfortunately for him, all three have been vocal proponents of placing
nuclear waste in Nevada, a sentiment not shared by Nevadans.
The 2nd Congressional District (generally all of the state outside of
Las Vegas) is quite different from its counterpart. Whereas District One
is primarily urban and majority Democratic, District Two is primarily
rural and majority Republican. Incumbent Republican Congressman Jim Gibbons
has easily won this seat in the past against token Democratic candidates.
This year Gibbons faces an unknown primary opponent and, assuming he wins,
a similarly unknown Democratic schoolteacher in the general. Gibbons is
such an overwhelming favorite that the presence of five minor party candidates
is unlikely to have any affect on the outcome in November.
STATE LEGISLATURE
Currently the State Assembly is held by the Democrats (28-14) and the
State Senate by the Republicans (12-9). Although all forty-two seats in
the Assembly are up for election in 2000, it is unlikely that the Republicans
will win the eight seats necessary to take the lower house. The Republicans
appear to have had difficulty recruiting candidates to take on Democratic
incumbents and will, at best, raise their numbers in the Assembly by two,
although even that more modest goal is unlikely. On the Senate side, Democrats
have targeted two Republican incumbents for defeat, which would give them
a bare 11-10 majority over the GOP in the upper house. Although it might
be possible for the Democrats to win one of these, it is unlikely that
both will fall their way and, thus, the Senate likely will continue to
have a Republican majority.
STATE SUPREME COURT
Three of the seven seats on the Nevada Supreme Court are up for election
in 2000. As expected, all three incumbents filed for reelection. Unsurprisingly,
Justices Bob Rose and Myron Leavitt drew no opponents in their nonpartisan
races. Somewhat surprisingly, incumbent Nancy Becker drew two opponents
in her race. However, neither are well-known and it is unlikely that they
will be able to raise the money to fund a competitive campaign.
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