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The 2000 Presidential
Primary in New Mexico
By Jose Garcia of New Mexico State University
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The New Mexico presidential primary election has virtually no impact
on the national presidential candidate selection process. The state's
primary election is held in June, long after the presidential nominees
in each major party are likely to have been determined through primary
elections held earlier in other states. Moreover, the number of convention
delegates from each party--pledged to vote at the convention in proportion
to the popular primary vote--is minuscule in this state with only five
electoral college votes. Thus, the New Mexico primary election is highly
unlikely to affect the national outcome, no matter how evenly divided
the national preferences between candidates. For these reasons national
candidates for president and the national media largely ignore the New
Mexico primary election. For more than two decades proposals have been
offered to shift the primary election to an earlier date as a means of
stimulating local and national interest in the primary election. These
have failed. Some party leaders--including state legislators--in state
and county organizations, where power is still relatively strong in both
parties, sense an erosion of control should highly competitive, nationally
visible campaigns compete with local party organizations even for short
periods of time.
A statewide preprimary nominating convention is held by each party several
weeks prior to the primary election. At this convention a straw vote of
delegates--chosen in precinct and county caucuses--determines the order
of appearance of names on the ballot of candidates running for national
and statewide offices, including President, in the primary election. Through
this device candidates seeking party nominations are encouraged to seek
the support of a relatively small number of loyal party activists in each
county in addition to the broader partisan public, thereby rewarding participation
in local party organizations. In the Democratic Party a quota of delegates
to the national convention is automatically reserved for party leaders
and elected officials, while in the Republican Party all delegates are
elected by the state convention. In practice, however, prominent Republicans
are inevitably chosen to the delegation. Democrats must select an equal
proportion of males and females, while Republicans hold to no quotas.
New Mexico is known as a "bellwether state," having voted
for a losing presidential candidate only once (in 1976) since statehood
was granted in 1912. This is especially remarkable since New Mexico's
population is culturally different from the nation at large. Forty percent
of the state's population is of Hispanic origin; more than ten percent
is Native American, while only about two percent is black. By a factor
of more than four to one, most Hispanic voters are registered Democrats.
Most Indian voters live on the Navajo and Hopi reservations in the Northwest
corner of the state, although Apache and Pueblo tribes occupy nearly two
dozen reservations especially in the North-Central portion of the state,
and a strong minority of New Mexico's Indians live in Albuquerque. Hispanic
voters comprise about one third of the electorate in each of the three
congressional districts. The Southeast corner of the state is known as
"Little Texas," not only because of its proximity to the neighboring
state, but also because the region is located within the oil-rich Permian
Basin, and is characterized by a social conservatism distinct from the
more typical combination of fiscal conservatism-social centrism found
in most other regions of the state.
The state's only major media market is located in Albuquerque, population
about 450,000. But it reaches an extended audience of over 700,000, or
about forty percent of the total population. Other media markets are much
smaller, including El Paso, Texas, which reaches a potential audience
in New Mexico of about 200,000, and Roswell, which covers Little Texas.
Spanish language radio, print, television, and other media are frequently
used in political campaigns and Navajo radio is becoming more common.
Politically, New Mexico is about evenly divided in the top electoral
positions between Republicans and Democrats, with a Republican trend evolving
over the past two decades. Currently there is a Republican governor, one
Republican Senator, and two of three congressional seats are held by Republicans.
On the other hand, most statewide offices, such as attorney general, auditor,
secretary of state, and land commission, are held by Democrats. And in
all but three or four of thirty three counties Democrats tend to win most
local offices. The state legislature is dominated by Democrats, although
on several occasions during the past quarter-century coalitions of conservative
Democrats and Republicans have allied to form winning coalitions in the
state Senate and House.
In 2000 statewide issues--taxation of Indian gaming, financing education,
improving the prison system--appear to be more salient than national issues.
Democratic Senator Jeff Bingaman is expected easily to win reelection,
as are Democratic Congressman Tom Udall, Republican Congresswoman Heather
Wilson, and Republican Congressman Joe Skeen. Given the late date of the
primary and the relative power of party organizations, it is highly likely
the presidential primary election in New Mexico will be won in each party
by the candidate emerging as the front-runner in primary elections held
from February-May. That is, the bandwagon effect is likely to trump other
potential considerations. For example, although George W. Bush has proven
to be relatively attractive to Hispanic voters in Texas, this factor is
unlikely to affect New Mexico, where only about fifteen percent of Republican
voters are Hispanic, and where primary elections are open only to party
members. Likewise the relatively successful Green Party, which has made
inroads among largely Democratic environmentalists in New Mexico, is not
likely to affect the primary, since there is no crossover vote and the
environment does not appear to be a defining issue among Democrats in
2000.
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