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After Strong
Win, McCain Faces Tough Challege in South Carolina
February 4, 2000 -- After a convincing win in New Hampshire, Arizona
Senator John McCain turns to the next step of his presidential primary
strategy: winning South Carolina.
McCain skipped both the Iowa caucuses and August's straw poll, gambling
instead on New Hampshire -- and its independents -- to provide a much-needed
boost against Texas Gov. George W. Bush, who leads in the national polls
and has tens of millions of dollars more in campaign funds.
Bush, as polls predicted, won in Iowa on Jan. 24, while McCain placed
a distant fifth.
A week later, Bush lost the New Hampshire primary in double-digits and
McCain proclaimed, "We've interfered with the coronation."
"The Texas governor, enthroned months ago as the strong favorite
for the nomination on the basis of his many endorsements and his bulging
bank account has not yet performed up to expectations at the ballot box,"
wrote David Broder in the Washington Post on Feb. 2. "He defeated
Steve Forbes, who has never been elected to public office, by only 11
points in the Jan. 24 Iowa caucuses and now has been humbled in his first
confrontation with McCain, who bypassed Iowa."
But South Carolina may be a different story. Unlike New Hampshire, where
the insurgent candidate has traditionally done well, South Carolina will
reward the party favorite.
The
South Carolina "Firewall"
Bush strategist Karl Rove told the Washington Post that South
Carolina "will provide a 'firewall' of protection for [Bush], just
as it did in 1992 and 1996, when unexpectedly strong showings in the New
Hampshire primary by Patrick J. Buchanan temporarily derailed the nomination
strategies of two eventual winners, first President George Bush and then
Sen. Robert Dole."
In hopes of repeating that performance, Bush has made sure he enters
the South Carolina race with the endorsements of most influential state
figures including U.S. Sen. Strom Thurmond and former Gov. Carroll Campbell.
The New York Times theorized that Bush and his strategists will
call New Hampshire's "outcome as the work of independents rather
than genuine Republicans." Independents, the state's largest voting
bloc, can participate in the New Hampshire primary by choosing a party
at the election site.
McCain, meanwhile, hopes his decisive New Hampshire victory will boost
his standing in the polls. In January, McCain had trailed Bush in South
Carolina by 20 percent, but two polls released this week have the Arizona
Senator pulling even with or passing Bush.
Lee Bandy, the political correspondent for The State in Columbia, S.C.,
outlined what McCain must do to win in his state in a January column:
"To win, he must capture 30 percent of the regular Republican primary
vote, get a huge turnout in the veteran community, attract a number of
reform-minded independents and get conservative Democrats."
The question is whether he can do that. He has received the support of
two popular local politicians, U.S. Reps. Lindsey Graham and Mark Sanford,
but the results will not be known until the 19th.
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