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Texas Is Bush Country
By Cal Jillson, Department of Political Science, John Tower Center for
Political Studies, Southern Methodist University
Texas will be Bush Country in 2000. Gov. George W. Bush won reelection
in 1998 with almost 70 percent of the vote. The question of whether he
would complete a second term as governor if reelected, or leave the governorship
to seek the presidency, was part of that campaign. Bush indicated that
he just might seek the presidency, so no one was surprised when he did
edge his way slowly into the race, and there is virtually no hint in Texas
of voter concern that the governor is abandoning or ignoring the state
in his quest for the presidency. The state's business in getting done
in the governor's absence and, in fact, voters recently acted to ensure
a smooth transition should George W. Bush win the presidency in November.
Texas voters went to the polls Nov. 2, 1999, to decide 17 proposed amendments
to the Texas constitution. Voters focused most of their attention on Amendment
#1, which was designed to resolve contradictory language in the Texas
constitution about whether a lieutenant governor replacing a governor
who leaves office before the end of his term could hold both offices simultaneously.
This question captured the attention of Texas voters for two reasons.
One reason is that Texas voters know that the office of lieutenant governor,
currently held by Republican Rick Perry, is very powerful, almost as powerful
as the office of governor, and that a person holding both offices would
be absolutely dominant. The more important reason is that Texas voters
overwhelmingly expect that their current governor, George W. Bush, will
depart Austin for Washington early in January 2001. Seventy percent of
voters approved the amendment requiring a lieutenant governor to give
up that office in order to assume the governorship. The Senate would then
select a new lieutenant governor, and several senators are already lining
up support should such a choice be required.
The presidential contest in Texas is expected to be uneventful. While
presidential candidates from both parties have made fund-raising forays
into Texas in recent months, Republicans concede the March primary to
Gov. Bush and the Democrats concede Texas to the Republicans in the general
election. Nonetheless, issues that Gov. Bush has dealt with in Texas,
like education, taxes, immigration, guns, child poverty and the environment,
may play a large role in the national campaign. Education, taxes and immigration
are expected to be Bush strengths, while guns, child poverty and the environment
may be sources of vulnerability.
Education was a focus of the 1999 legislative session. Gov. Bush supported
sweeping changes in education policy, including an end to social promotions
and record funding for Texas public schools. Cuts in property, sales and
business taxes totaling $1.85 billion (Bush wanted more) were adopted
in 1999. Bush continued to build on Texas' special relationship with Mexico
and its receptivity to Hispanic immigrants. The state's Hispanic voters
rewarded him with strong support in his 1998 reelection bid and Hispanic
voters nationally have been a focus of his presidential campaign.
Nonetheless, Bush has taken a number of issue positions that, while popular
in Texas, are less popular nationally. Texas is a gun state, so Bush has
resisted limitations on individual's right to bear arms and on the rights
of Texas cities to sue gun manufacturers for damage done by their products.
The governor lost a voucher bill in the last legislative session and would
face stiff opposition in making the case for vouchers nationally. Moreover,
his record in Texas on addressing high rates of child poverty (Texas has
1.4 million uninsured children; only California has more), and on his
stewardship of the economy have drawn fire and will have to be defended
nationally.
Moreover, there are lots of down ballot implications of a strong Bush
showing in Texas. Texas politics has been in transition from staunchly
Democrat to staunchly Republican since John Tower's election to the Senate
in 1961. All of Texas's statewide elected officials are now Republican,
including its U.S. senators, Phil Gramm and Kay Bailey Hutchison. Hutchison,
though up for reelection in 2000, has yet to draw any hint of a challenge
and seems confident that she can raise whatever funds might be necessary
to defend her seat. She does not discourage speculation that she might
give up her Senate seat to contest the Texas governorship in 2002.
The U.S. House delegation and the Texas legislature are both evenly balanced
between Democrats and Republicans, but the long-term movement clearly
favors the Republicans. The U.S. House delegation, all of whom are up
for reelection in 2000, is currently split 17 Democrats and 13 Republicans.
Most incumbents can be expected to win election (incumbents have been
successful about 95 percent of the time during the 1990s). Still, many
analysts are watching the 5th district closely, in which two-term incumbent
Pete Sessions is likely to get a stiff challenge from former Clinton domestic
policy adviser Regina Montoya Coggins.
The Texas legislature will also be in play. Democrats have controlled
the House of Representatives, usually with large majorities, since the
end of Reconstruction. Though the Democrats still control the House, the
margin of control has narrowed to 78 to 72. The Senate, also traditionally
Democrat, swung to the Republicans in 1997 for the first time since Reconstruction.
The current partisan split in the Senate is 16 Republicans and 15 Democrats.
Fifteen of 31 Senate seats are up grabs in the 2000 election. Democrats
intend to make a strong bid to hold the House and recapture the Senate,
but Bush coattails could produce Republican majorities in both houses.
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