ADDING UP THE IMPACT

October 28, 1998
	Robert Q. Parks, professor of Political Science at Elmira College, discusses the nightly ad barrage from the two candidates and the impact those ads appear to be having.

Online NewsHour Special Report: Election '98 Return to the New York index. Oct. 28, 1998: Terence Smith reports on the campaign ad war between Senator D'Amato and Rep. Schumer. Oct. 28, 1998: NYU professor Mitchell Moss on the New York voters who will decide the race. RealAudio and RealVideo of D'Amato and Schumer ads are also avaliable.	Though it is not a dramatic confrontation of issues, ideologies or personalities, the Senate race in N.Y. is an interesting study in campaigning. Will D'Amato be able to play the incumbency advantage? Will Schumer find a killer issue or theme? Will one of them stumble and fall into full fledged negative campaigning? The air barrage and women. Outside of NY City, television viewers have learned where the Hudson river flows through their state by watching upstate NY being sawed off. The announcer says that "For Chuck Schumer, the west begins at the Hudson River." And D'Amato waits for upstate voters to dismiss Schumer as a NY City liberal. The word "liberal" isn't often used in D'Amato ads, and some have called this election the beginning of the end of "liberal" as an epithet. But this may only be a tactical retreat for D'Amato. The tactical retreat is due to the character of his constituency, and the dimensions of his political problem. His problem is this: the angry male voter of 1994 has aroused a reaction among concerned female voters. Perhaps the most important swing constituency in this election is upstate women voters. As a result of a poor standing with women voters, D'Amato during the past two years has tried to refurbish his image as someone who cares about women (despite his opposition to abortion) and someone who cares about the environment (an important issue with his female constitutents). The nightly bombardment with D'Amato ads begins in early evening and gains momentum through the 11:00 news, till the peak hour - 11:00 till 12:00 - in which voters sit bleary eyed, barely awake, in front of their televisions. D'Amato ads: Schumer cast the deciding vote to raise taxes on Social Security benefits, voted for foreign aid for Mongolia while withholding money from upstate victims of the winter ice storms, and failed to vote on many important pieces of legislation. Schumer ads: D'Amato is the most anti-education Senator ever (having voted to end school lunch programs and against reducing class size), and is lying about (distorting) Schumer's voting record. Ads for both sides are agressive without being blatantly negative. Both spend more time portraying their opponent in negative light than in building their own image. But there are positive image building ads. D'Amato appeals to women voters with an ad touting his support of breast cancer research. Schumer appeals to the same constituency with ads about support of legislation reducing class sizes. The recent effort by Clinton to pin the resistance to class size reduction on the Republican party has helped Schumer, and his ads take advantage of the linkage. Are the voters in N.Y. interested in this game of games? Will they figure out that they must decide for themselves what the real issues are, or at least ask the candidates to come clean on their real and distinctive values and positions? Inevitably the votes will be counted, but it may be a long time before anyone figures out the relevance of this campaign in determining the results. But this game of games is also a waiting game. Both candidates are keeping quiet about their next steps. They are circling, looking for weak spots. Will one candidate find a weak spot? Will a "killer" issue emerge? Will someone stumble into a pit in a fit of mudslinging? The next two weeks will find some playing one game and others playing another game. On November 3 there will be only one game to play. -- Robert Q. Parks, Online NewsHour