SHADOW BOXING IN CALIFORNIA

October 14, 1998
	Dr. Carl Luna and Dr. Joe McKenzie, two professors of political science at San Diego Mesa College, take a look at the U.S. Senate race in California and what it reveals about the Golden State.

Online NewsHour Special Report: Election '98 Return to the California index. Oct. 13, 1998: John Wildermuth reports from San Francisco on the U.S. Senate race in California. Oct. 12, 1998: Jeffrey Kaye reports on the U.S. Senate race in California.     Matt Fong, Republican Senate candidate for California. Barbara Boxer, incumbent Senator from California. U.S. Senate White House San Francisco Chronicle	SAN DIEGO: California, the state that gave the Union a populist tax revolt and Ronald Reagan, which signaled the conservative resurgence of the last two decades, has been drifting, in fits and spasms, back to the center.
	Moving back to the center.
	No race more clearly demonstrates the state's political schizophrenia than does the race for the United States Senate. Barbara Boxer, a first term Democratic Senator, should have a number of advantages over her challenger, Republican State Treasurer Matt Fong. Boxer has a higher profile as an incumbent U.S. senator which, coupled with her personal polish as a campaigner, a well funded war chest and a booming California economy, should give her a decisive advantage over the lower profile, lower key and lower funded Matt Fong. Boxer, however, with 3 weeks to the election, has seen her early lead erode into a statistical dead heat in the polls with Fong. Boxer and Fong present a stark contrast in style and beliefs. On every issue, from crime to the economy, education and social programs to defense, Fong has staked out the right of center position to Boxer's left. Indeed, Boxer has often been attacked as being too liberal--out of step with California's voters. Yet polls show that the majority of Californian voters actually prefer Boxer's stance on the issues to Fong's. Fong paints himself as the moderate, a consensus builder, which he contrasts with Boxer's "divisiveness." The race, as polls show, is more a referendum on Boxer's six years in the Senate, during which she consistently posted lower than average approval ratings. Indeed, almost 30% of Fong's support is based on voter antipathy for Boxer rather than any particular affection for the GOP candidate. Two debates between the candidates have done little to alter popular perceptions. The Republican high-water mark in the Golden State may well have been 1994, when a Republican governor was reelected and the State Assembly went GOP for the first time in decades. In 1996, voters again went for Bill Clinton and the State Assembly went back to the Democrats. The rise of a diversified population means trouble for the traditionally powerful conservative white middle class. A bell weather of current politics was the 1996 defeat of ultraconservative Republican Bob Dornan by Hispanic Democrat Loretta Sanchez. Almost by accident, however, the Republicans have nominated the one person who could cross this ethnic divide and win the general election--the great grandson of a Chinese immigrant laborer.
	The political fault lines.
	The race betrays a number of diversity fault lines in California politics. Boxer polls strongly amongst women, especially those under 44 (a 2:1 lead) and leads 5:3 amongst all voters under 44. Fong's support lies with the older, male conservative vote, and conservative woman over 44. Boxer has more supporters, but more of Fong's supporters are likely to vote. No political initiatives or campaigns have caught the electorates attention or conversely, current events invites voters to stay home in disgust, voter turn out is bound to be low, which should help Fong. --- Carl Luna & Joe Mac McKenzie