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SAN DIEGO: In the California Senate race, Barbara Boxer is striking
back. Boxer is now up by 5% over Matt Fong in polls, a ten point swing
from her previous 5% deficit, helped by outspending him 2:1 in TV adds
and a voter backlash against Republican impeachment efforts. Boxer has
captured moderate voters (with a 62% to 26% advantage) portraying Fong
as an anti-environment, pro-gun, anti-choice footsoldier of ultra-conservative
interests.
 The
recent revelation that Fong made a $50,000 contribution last spring
to a pro-life, anti-gay rights conservative religious group doesn't
help dispel this association. She's received $2.5 million from the Democratic
Party to help her advertising blitz supplemented by fund-raising support
by the White House. Fong, meanwhile, has received little national support
in what should be a priority race for the Republican Party.
Meanwhile, the political winds from Washington that have buffeted the
race all fall now seem to be lifting Boxer's wings. In September, those
voters who saw scandal as a major political issue supported Fong by
a 2:1 margin; now the margin is 50%-44%. Of those more likely to vote
because of scandal, slightly more now indicate they will vote Democrat.
If Fong loses to Boxer, it may well be because of a critical strategic
miscalculation. Fong has chosen to run the race "on the issues" and
has avoided "going negative." Yet if any race should be negative, it's
Fong's. Polls repeatedly show that the pro-Fong vote is more an anti-Boxer
vote-these are the flames Fong needs to fan. Fong's error in not going
after Boxer was masked in the earlier by the negatives inflicted on
Democrats by the Lewinsky scandal. As the scandal has temporarily receded
from the media headlines, that advantage is evaporating, leaving the
Fong campaign depending on the issues. The issues, however, belong to
Boxer, with 55% of voters feeling her views are closer to their own,
as compared to 40% for Fong
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 Statewide
trends also bode ill for Fong. Democratic candidates are leading in
the race for Governor and four of the other six top statewide positions.
The Democrats are successfully forming a Democratic left to moderate
Republican coalition because the right wing of the Republican Party
has forced its candidates so far over the edge that they're losing the
center. Control of the center was what the Reagan coalition was all
about. The end of a political party's dominance occurs when the radical
wing takes over. This happened to the Democrats in the 1960's and may
be happening to the Republicans now.
Moreover, voters like Republican economic opportunism in good times,
but seem to flock to the Democrats and their social safety net during
bad times. When the bull market became bearish this summer, the baby
boomers, worried about their futures, began to run home to momma Democratic
Party. These Golden State trends may have boxed in Fong's hopes and
may knock out any Republican Presidential aspirations in this state
in 2000.
-- Carl Luna & Joe Mac McKenzie
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