FONG FADING AT THE FINISH

October 29, 1998
	Dr. Carl Luna and Dr. Joe McKenzie, two professors of political science at San Diego Mesa College, report on Sen. Boxer's return to the top of the polls.

Online NewsHour Special Report: Election '98 Return to the California index. Oct. 28, 1998: John Wildermuth reports on Mr. Fong's tough week. Oct. 21, 1998: Political scientists Carl Luna and Joe McKenzie on the Road to the Middle. Oct. 20, 1998: John Wildermuth analyzes last week's debate. Oct. 14, 1998: Luna and McKenzie on what the Senate race says about the Golden State. Oct. 13, 1998: John Wildermuth provides analysis from California. Oct. 12, 1998: Jeffrey Kaye reports on the U.S. Senate race in California.   Matt Fong, Republican Senate candidate for California. Barbara Boxer, incumbent Senator from California. U.S. Senate White House San Francisco Chronicle	SAN DIEGO: In the California Senate race, Barbara Boxer is striking back. Boxer is now up by 5% over Matt Fong in polls, a ten point swing from her previous 5% deficit, helped by outspending him 2:1 in TV adds and a voter backlash against Republican impeachment efforts. Boxer has captured moderate voters (with a 62% to 26% advantage) portraying Fong as an anti-environment, pro-gun, anti-choice footsoldier of ultra-conservative interests. The recent revelation that Fong made a $50,000 contribution last spring to a pro-life, anti-gay rights conservative religious group doesn't help dispel this association. She's received $2.5 million from the Democratic Party to help her advertising blitz supplemented by fund-raising support by the White House. Fong, meanwhile, has received little national support in what should be a priority race for the Republican Party. Meanwhile, the political winds from Washington that have buffeted the race all fall now seem to be lifting Boxer's wings. In September, those voters who saw scandal as a major political issue supported Fong by a 2:1 margin; now the margin is 50%-44%. Of those more likely to vote because of scandal, slightly more now indicate they will vote Democrat. If Fong loses to Boxer, it may well be because of a critical strategic miscalculation. Fong has chosen to run the race "on the issues" and has avoided "going negative." Yet if any race should be negative, it's Fong's. Polls repeatedly show that the pro-Fong vote is more an anti-Boxer vote-these are the flames Fong needs to fan. Fong's error in not going after Boxer was masked in the earlier by the negatives inflicted on Democrats by the Lewinsky scandal. As the scandal has temporarily receded from the media headlines, that advantage is evaporating, leaving the Fong campaign depending on the issues. The issues, however, belong to Boxer, with 55% of voters feeling her views are closer to their own, as compared to 40% for Fong
	Statewide trends.
	Statewide trends also bode ill for Fong. Democratic candidates are leading in the race for Governor and four of the other six top statewide positions. The Democrats are successfully forming a Democratic left to moderate Republican coalition because the right wing of the Republican Party has forced its candidates so far over the edge that they're losing the center. Control of the center was what the Reagan coalition was all about. The end of a political party's dominance occurs when the radical wing takes over. This happened to the Democrats in the 1960's and may be happening to the Republicans now. Moreover, voters like Republican economic opportunism in good times, but seem to flock to the Democrats and their social safety net during bad times. When the bull market became bearish this summer, the baby boomers, worried about their futures, began to run home to momma Democratic Party. These Golden State trends may have boxed in Fong's hopes and may knock out any Republican Presidential aspirations in this state in 2000. -- Carl Luna & Joe Mac McKenzie