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SAN DIEGO: Like a heavyweight contender with a glass jaw, Matt
Fong has gone down in the California electoral ring, out-boxed by a
veteran Boxer. Coming back from a 5% deficit in the polls just three
weeks ago, Barbara Boxer has cruised to a second Senate term with a
53% to 43% margin of victory.
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Labeled as too abrasive, too liberal and too ineffective as both a
campaigner and a legislator, Boxer's seat had been targeted by GOP strategists
and media pundits alike as an easy pickup for the Republicans. Operating
according to this conventional wisdom, Fong ran much of the race on
campaign cruise control. He jogged towards the moderate center on issues
like education and abortion while leaving it to Boxer's own negatives
in the polls to drag her down. Unfortunately for Fong (and Republicans
in general), in California the center has shifted to the left of where
it had been in the golden Reagan years. (Note to Newt: adjust.) Barbara
Boxer was standing there to embrace this new middle, grabbing a decisive
60% of the moderate vote.
Boxer ran strongly among women (3-2), blacks and Hispanics (2-1), and
almost split the white, Asian and male vote 50-50 with Fong. Fong's
only bedrock support was the traditional conservative vote in Southern
California and the Central Valley. Boxer also clearly dominated the
most significant issues like education, the environment and healthcare,
leaving Fong to try and build electoral success with his positions on
crime, taxes and family values, none of which resonated with the voters.
Indeed, Fong's strongest asset and the number one reason supporters
gave for voting for him (according to a Los Angeles Times exit
poll) was their hostility to Barbara Boxer. His decision to avoid using
negative ads to exploit this advantage until the last weekend of the
race probably doomed the campaign. Indeed, Fong's margin of defeat would
probably have been even greater (dare we say of Lungreenian proportions?
[Editor's Note: Dan Lungren, the former California attorney general, was the Republican
candidate for governor - ed.] had he been running against an opponent
with fewer negatives than Boxer's.
The big story in this election is that of the Republican dog that did
not bark. The party of the incumbent president has almost always historically
lost a large number of seats in midterm elections. Republicans anticipated
this election like a kid does Christmas morning, with Boxer's seat a
particularly big present. With Democrats sweeping most statewide races
in California from Governor on down and with a host of progressive voter
initiatives passing, the GOP found only coal in it's stocking. You beat
something with nothing. Fong's campaign hit all the same old buttons
Republicans have been running on since 1980, but these tried and true
slogans have become tired and trite. The only thing that can save the
Republicans now is the deus ex machina, such as international depression.
Even then, Clinton's final act in office will, no doubt, be to blame
it all on Newt Gingrich and the Republicans and the voters, no doubt,
will believe him.
-- Carl Luna & Joe Mac McKenzie
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