DOWN AND OUT IN CALIFORNIA

November 6, 1998
	Dr. Carl Luna and Dr. Joe McKenzie, two professors of political science at San Diego Mesa College, report on Sen. Boxer's victory.

Online NewsHour Special Report: Election '98 Return to the California index. Nov. 4, 1998: John Wildermuth reports on Sen. Boxer's victory. Nov. 2, 1998: John Wildermuth reports on Sen. Boxer's growing lead. Oct. 29, 1998: Political scientists Carl Luna and Joe McKenzie on Sen. Boxer's gaining momentum. Oct. 28, 1998: John Wildermuth reports on Mr. Fong's tough week. Oct. 21, 1998: Luna and McKenzie on the Road to the Middle. Oct. 20, 1998: John Wildermuth analyzes last week's debate   U.S. Senate White House San Francisco Chronicle	SAN DIEGO: Like a heavyweight contender with a glass jaw, Matt Fong has gone down in the California electoral ring, out-boxed by a veteran Boxer. Coming back from a 5% deficit in the polls just three weeks ago, Barbara Boxer has cruised to a second Senate term with a 53% to 43% margin of victory.
	Sen. Boxer cruises to victory.
	Labeled as too abrasive, too liberal and too ineffective as both a campaigner and a legislator, Boxer's seat had been targeted by GOP strategists and media pundits alike as an easy pickup for the Republicans. Operating according to this conventional wisdom, Fong ran much of the race on campaign cruise control. He jogged towards the moderate center on issues like education and abortion while leaving it to Boxer's own negatives in the polls to drag her down. Unfortunately for Fong (and Republicans in general), in California the center has shifted to the left of where it had been in the golden Reagan years. (Note to Newt: adjust.) Barbara Boxer was standing there to embrace this new middle, grabbing a decisive 60% of the moderate vote. Boxer ran strongly among women (3-2), blacks and Hispanics (2-1), and almost split the white, Asian and male vote 50-50 with Fong. Fong's only bedrock support was the traditional conservative vote in Southern California and the Central Valley. Boxer also clearly dominated the most significant issues like education, the environment and healthcare, leaving Fong to try and build electoral success with his positions on crime, taxes and family values, none of which resonated with the voters. Indeed, Fong's strongest asset and the number one reason supporters gave for voting for him (according to a Los Angeles Times exit poll) was their hostility to Barbara Boxer. His decision to avoid using negative ads to exploit this advantage until the last weekend of the race probably doomed the campaign. Indeed, Fong's margin of defeat would probably have been even greater (dare we say of Lungreenian proportions? [Editor's Note: Dan Lungren, the former California attorney general, was the Republican candidate for governor - ed.] had he been running against an opponent with fewer negatives than Boxer's. The big story in this election is that of the Republican dog that did not bark. The party of the incumbent president has almost always historically lost a large number of seats in midterm elections. Republicans anticipated this election like a kid does Christmas morning, with Boxer's seat a particularly big present. With Democrats sweeping most statewide races in California from Governor on down and with a host of progressive voter initiatives passing, the GOP found only coal in it's stocking. You beat something with nothing. Fong's campaign hit all the same old buttons Republicans have been running on since 1980, but these tried and true slogans have become tired and trite. The only thing that can save the Republicans now is the deus ex machina, such as international depression. Even then, Clinton's final act in office will, no doubt, be to blame it all on Newt Gingrich and the Republicans and the voters, no doubt, will believe him. -- Carl Luna & Joe Mac McKenzie