A TOUGH MAN TO TAR

October 26, 1998
	North Carolina State University's Michael A Dimock, an assistant professor of Political Science, discusses why attempts to tie freshman Bob Etheridge (D) to President Clinton have thus far failed.

Online NewsHour Special Report: Election '98 Return to the North Carolina index. Oct. 19, 1998: North Carolina State professor Michael Dimock on the impact of President Clinton's problems. Oct. 10, 1998: NC State professor Michael Dimock reports on this year's campaign landscape. Oct. 4, 1998: Jeffrey Kaye reports on the North Carolina race     U.S. House of Representatives Rep. Bob Etheridge's Web Site at the House. The Raleigh News & Observer.	Dan Page's early efforts to link incumbent Democrat Bob Etheridge to the Clinton scandal served him well in terms of drawing support from the Republican party (who are running "issue advocacy" advertisements on his behalf) and attracting campaign donations from conservative supporters. However, there is little evidence that this issue resonates with voters. Page has yet to convince voters that Etheridge deserves to be voted out of office. Part of the problem Page faces is that Etheridge is a difficult person to tar. There are no personal or political scandals upon which comparisons to Clinton can be made. Claiming that Etheridge is "too liberal" for the district is difficult, given the incumbent's unwavering support of tobacco farmers and the tobacco industry, his votes in favor of banning late-term abortions and his support of impeachment proceedings against Clinton. The only issue on which the L-word sticks is education, and his support for education spending probably helps him more than it hurts him. The impact of redistricting. The importance of Etheridge's support among tobacco farmers, and his position on the House Agriculture committee, cannot be overlooked. As a Republican, Dan Page's core support should come from the rural areas of the district, where "Jessecrats" dominate the political landscape. However, Etheridge has earned the support of the farm community not only through his voting record, but his efforts since first running for the seat in 1996 to make himself personally visible in the farm community. Though most rural North Carolinians may agree with Page on most issues, the reputation Etheridge has built as a "friend of the farmer" is difficult to overcome. Page might also hope to gain Republican support from suburban communities around Raleigh, however redistricting has placed most of North Raleigh, and all of suburban Cary in the neighboring 4th district, represented by Democrat David Price. Another aspect of the 1997 redistricting may work in Page's favor, however. Whereas the 2nd district used to contain much of politically active and heavily Democratic Durham county, under the current map Durham belongs to Price, and Etheridge is left with still heavily Democratic, but not nearly as mobilized central Raleigh. The concern about depressed Democratic turnout on November 3rd that all Democratic candidates are feeling is an even stronger concern within the Etheridge campaign, where these voters are also new to his district. Fortunately for Etheridge, most voters in Raleigh are familiar with him even though he has not directly represented them till now due to the common media market shared by the 2nd and 4th districts. This common media market may end up benefiting Etheridge in another way between now and election day. Given a neck-and-neck Senate race between Lauch Faircloth and John Edwards, and two contested House campaigns in the 2nd and 4th districts, local viewers are being bombarded with negative advertising from all sides. In this late stage of the game, Page's best chance to overcome Etheridge's 17 point lead in the polls is to mount a surprise attack on the airwaves. Though he may now have the resources and support to do so, such an attack is likely to be lost in the overall flood of campaign and issue advocacy advertisements, and even if they do register with voters, may be unconvincing, or even backfire as a result of public fatigue. In short, Page has yet to convince conservative Democrats to cross party lines. Whether he can do so in the next eight days is the key question.