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| ELECTION EVE IN RALEIGH | |
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November 2, 1998 |
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North Carolina State University's Michael A Dimock, an assistant professor of Political Science, analyzes the 2nd Congressional District on the eve of the election. |
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By all appearances, Bob Etheridge has successfully immunized himself from challenger Dan Page's attempts to paint him as "another Clinton liberal." Etheridge's immunization formula consisted of the classic incumbent's combination of constituency service and position taking, with an extra dose of independence from the president thrown in for good measure. Page's early effort to link Etheridge to Clinton's moral scandal succeeded in raising money and attention, however it also gave Etheridge plenty of time to defend himself with the most powerful incumbent advantage of all – the ability to vote on the issues. By voting in favor of extended impeachment proceedings, Etheridge redirected the campaign's focus away from Clinton and back to local concerns (Etheridge's campaign slogan: "North Carolina always comes first.") The campaign, in short, has reverted to a typical mudfight which favors the incumbent. Etheridge attacks Page for a poor attendance record in the State Senate and for accepting legislative per-diems for days on which he was absent from the Senate. He has also latched on to a recent news story about Page's failure to pay property taxes on billboards he own (Page operates an outdoor advertising company). Page, in return, has been left to complain about Etheridge's "unfounded attacks" and claims that Etheridge simply "can't be trusted." His campaign is even running a radio spot that begins by commenting on the fact that on numerous days in September and October various animal parts and an "amputated rabbit" were found by Page's wife on the porch steps of their home. Though Page's spokesman insists that the ad is not meant to imply that the Etheridge campaign is responsible, the purpose of mentioning these gruesome offerings is left unclear. As Page himself intones in the ad "Who would stoop to that level?" Indeed. The final consideration acting in Etheridge's favor is the hotly contested
Senate race between Lauch Faircloth and John Edwards which will increase
turnout, probably to the Democrats' favor. Not only has the Senate race
raised voter interest, but the Democratic Party and the Edwards campaign
are spending big money on their "Get Out the Vote" efforts, all of which
trickles down to benefit candidates lower on the ballot. The 2nd district
can be won by Republican candidates, but it helps if the Republican
candidate can sew up the omnipresent farm vote, and keep turnout in
the city to a minimum. At this point, it appears that Dan Page won't
enjoy either of these advantages. |
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