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Creating
the Future Through Foreign Policy When
President-elect Bush settles into the Oval Office, one of the first
things he'll probably have to deal with is the messy situation in the
Middle East. It's just one of the trouble spots around the world that
the United States is involved in. The U.S. vs. the USSR The most dramatic change in recent world history has been the collapse of the Soviet Union, which for decades was America's number one enemy. During the 1950's and 60s, most of the world seemed to be divided into two teams, with the U.S. and Western Europe on one side, and the Soviets, Eastern Europe and China on the other. In exchange for their allegiance, smaller countries received military protection and economic support from one of the "superpowers." The U.S. team formed a military alliance known as NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization). The Soviets made a similar agreement with their allies, known as The Warsaw Pact. For decades, these two teams, led by the U.S. and the U.S.S.R., faced off in what became known as the Cold War. Each side spied on the other, and tried to beat them in creating new weapons and spying equipment. During this time, the threat of nuclear war between the two empires was like a shadow over the entire world. Diplomatic tensions were high, but neither nation pushed the "nuclear button." That's why the war was called "cold," because there were no actual battles. The real skirmishes were behind the scenes races to get information first and to keep the other side from finding out. But in the late 1980's, something happened that few people expected. After 72 years of Communist rule, the Soviet Union collapsed. Its leaders declared that Communism hadn't really worked, and the union dissolved into nearly a dozen separate countries that didn't necessarily see the U.S. as an enemy any more. The Cold War was over. But the relationships among the many different allies changed. Instead of two arch-rival teams, there was one team and a bunch of free agents. For the past several years, experts have been trying to sort out these changes, and predict how they relate to new developments in science, technology and population. Recently
the Central
Intelligence Agency (CIA) released a public report about what it
thinks the world will be like in the year 2015. The report, called "Global
Trends 2015," could help Bush and his cabinet make important decisions
on how the U.S. interacts with other countries. Here's the CIA's take on some hot spots around the world: The Middle East The
CIA thinks the hostile standoff between Israel China The CIA isn't sure what's going to happen in China. It thinks that the kind of government China has -- a communist one -- won't be very good at handling the economic changes the country needs to make in order to trade with other nations. But the CIA also knows that China can bounce back because it's done it in the past. A very weak or very strong China could be a "security risk" for the U.S. if it decided that war, not peace, was the best way to act. Russia The "Great Bear" is in big trouble. It isn't as strong as it used to be, and the country may not be able to adjust to having very little power among other nations. The government may have trouble keeping control, if poverty, unemployment and ethnic conflict get out of hand. Unfortunately there isn't much that either the U.S. or its allies in Europe can do about it. Russia has to solve its internal problems by itself, the CIA says. Japan Japan lost a lot of money in the mid-1990s and it still hasn't completely recovered. Compared to China, its economy is growing much more slowly. Japan may decide to have a stronger military than it does now, and this will change its relationship with both the U.S. and China. Like Russia, these decisions are up to the Japanese government. India The
CIA thinks we should watch India very closely. Its population, economy,
and technological development are growing very fast, and so is the When to get involved President Bush and his advisers will be keeping an eye on many countries at once. But they also will likely be less involved in international disputes than President Clinton was. Several key Bush advisers have said they think the U.S. is over-involved in other countries and should focus more attention on developments within the United States. At the same time, they realize that the world is more connected than ever before and what happens in once place can send ripples around the world. When things get bad in the Middle East, for example, gas prices go up in the U.S. And there are times when the U.S. intervenes in other countries to try to protect innocent people -- like ethnic minorities -- from being hurt or killed. Sometimes people in other countries ask the U.S. for help. But it's often hard to decide when to step in and when the U.S. should mind its own business. It's now up to the Bush team to make those tough calls. What do you think?What foreign policy advice would you give President Bush? When should the U.S. get involved in other countries? What obligations does the U.S. have to its friends? When should the U.S. take action against its enemies? -Contributed by Alexander S. Houston
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threaten
some places. Terrorism, both within the U.S. and in other countries,
will likely increase. And the threat of nuclear war will be replaced
with growing concerns about chemical and biological weapons. Advances
in medicine will help people live longer but these people will also
need support as they grow old. The report doesn't offer specific solutions
to these problems. But it provides information to help Bush and his
advisers figure out some answers.
and
the Palestinians in the Middle East won't get any better. In order for
this region's outlook to improve, the governments must make some basic
changes -- like improving education. But the CIA doubts these kinds
of improvements will happen.
gap between its rich and poor people. India is an ambitious country,
and this ambition may not be good for its relations with its neighbors
China and Russia, as well as Japan and the West. India will probably
continue its own Cold War with Pakistan as the two countries keep their
nuclear missiles aimed at each other. PBS Online Privacy Policy | Contact Us | Our Mission | FAQ Copyright © MacNeil-Lehrer Productions All Rights Reserved |