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The October 7 debate was a crucial night for Senator
John McCain. Senator Barack Obama is pulling ahead,
up 8 and 9 points in Tuesday's Gallup and Rasmussen
national tracking polls, respectively. McCain, who has
admitted his weakness on the economy, is at a serious
disadvantage in current conditions.
However, McCain was supposed to be the master of the
town-hall format. The Democratic National Committee
came out with a video Monday playing up expectations
of McCain's performance because he is supposed to be
so comfortable in town halls.
Unfortunately for both candidates, the town-hall format
seemed to find that perfect combination of boring and
awkward. The candidates were forced to balance talking
to the moderator, NBC's Tom Brokaw, to the audience,
and to the questioner.
When they decided to allow follow-ups on the Pakistan
question towards the end of the debate, they had to
address each other as well, which made things even messier.
To Brokaw's frustration, both candidates had issues
staying within time limits, which made them both look
bad.
Given the awkwardness of the format, portraying an air
of confidence and looking "presidential" was
even harder than usual. But Barack Obama clearly won
on style and body language.
McCain was visibly nervous, repeating phrases like "my
friends" and wandering around the stage. Obama
seemed more focused, smiling while McCain criticized
him, avoiding direct jabs, and generally staying above
the fray.
In terms of content, three questions are crucial to
understanding who won tonight: Who were the candidates
talking to, what were they saying, and what weren't
they saying?
The target audience
The target here was clear: the middle class. Middle-class
voters are at the core of this election. They are worried
about their jobs, they are worried about their mortgages,
and they are looking for someone to fix the economy.
Undecided voters across the country want specific plans
as to how the candidates plan to address financial regulation,
home loans, health care and energy issues. Foreign policy
is important to these undecided voters, but it is definitely
secondary to the economy. The key about the target audience
of this debate, though, was that it was the same for
both candidates.
Tough economic questions
The candidate responses to one economic question in particular
were telling. A voter identified as Oliver Clark asked
how the bailout will help ordinary Americans. McCain answered
first, but strayed off the point and talked about himself,
lobbyists, and "cronies" of Obama's.
Obama did a much better job addressing the question as
it was asked, probably because he watched McCain do so
badly. Right off the bat, he said, "Oliver, first
let me tell you what's in the rescue package for you."
He went on to tell the questioner, "You're not interested
in politicians pointing fingers." Obama connected
to middle-class voters much more effectively than did
McCain.
Obama won more points on the economy when Brokaw asked
the candidates to prioritize energy, health care, and
entitlement reform. McCain looked like a hypocrite proposing
a "spending freeze" while arguing that energy,
health care, and entitlement reform can all be tackled
at the same time. Obama had a logical answer for prioritizing
energy, then health care and education. McCain did not
win the question back by saying, "We are Americans.
We can, with the participation of all Americans, work
together and solve these problems together."
Foreign policy differences
On foreign policy, McCain used the traditional argument
that he has the necessary experience. Answering a Pakistan
question, he briefly referenced "Waziristan, where
I've visited-a very rough country" to emphasize
how seasoned he is on foreign policy issues.
But Obama scored big when he turned the inexperience
argument on its head by saying, "There are some
things I don't understand. I don't understand how we
ended up invading a country that had nothing to do with
9/11, while Osama Bin Laden and Al Qaeda are setting
up base camps and safe havens to train terrorists to
attack us."
With that answer, Obama placated liberal pundits who
said he hadn't been aggressive enough in the last debate
and positioned himself as a Washington outsider.
Better left unsaid
Two names not mentioned in this debate: Joe Biden and
Sarah Palin. The intense discussion of Palin and her
record has died down, and last week's vice-presidential
debate was not the unmitigated disaster that both parties
feared it might be, so the VP candidates have largely
lost relevance in this race.
Another name not mentioned: Phil Gramm, now an unofficial
adviser to the McCain campaign. Gramm was a major proponent
of the deregulations that are now being blamed for the
financial crisis, and he famously called the U.S. "a
nation of whiners." Obama had a couple of opportunities
to attack McCain on this but he didn't-a clear indication
that he has made a conscious strategic decision to stay
positive.
Snap polls of debate-watchers suggest a big win for
Obama, but with 27 days now left on the least predicable
campaign in recent history, anything is possible.
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