Scholar Assesses Kenya Politics

Whether this is a "real" solution depends on what problem(s) you are thinking this coalition pact is meant to solve. In my opinion, it is meant to solve only the electoral dispute. Assuming it will resolve deeper issues that animated the dispute, especially the deep divisions, the enduring ethnic suspicions, and the institutional weaknesses -- already known and newly exposed -- would be a mistake. A coalition government presents an opportunity for collaborative governance -- usually via means of trade-offs of very immediate concerns. I would be wary of assuming that a coalition such as this will advance solutions to fundamental challenges of the Kenyan polity. Among the several things that militate against it, the first is the penchant for Kenyan politicians to accept "satisfying" solutions that allow politics as we know it to proceed; radical solutions, whether pressed by political parties (KPU in the 1960s) or outside by movements, (Mwakenya) have never found success. It is unlikely that a momentum to fundamentally restructure the state and relations between citizens and the state will emerge from this coalition.

On the other hand, one may argue that the trauma of the last eight weeks is such that a new dispensation in politics -- one that overrides patrimonial politics, ethnic bloc voting, and mediation of personal and community fortunes by ethnic or regional barons -- will emerge. The problem with that argument is that, on the whole, all the principal actors to this agreement pursue the established politics. It is hard to see how they transcend themselves. I do, however, see hope in other institutions that have emerged stronger in the successive cycles of elections -- principally the parliament. This has been overshadowed by the electoral dispute which was fundamentally a fight for the "imperial presidency".