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AN IRISH PEACE?
Will the new peace deal hold? April 17, 1998 |
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Questions asked
in this forum:
So who won in the peace talks? Will this improve relations between Catholic and Protestants? Will the deal really stop the violence? Will the different structures in the peace deal really work together? How will the release of political prisoners impact the stability in the region? How institutionalized have the "Troubles" become? 
A question from Ian Donaldson of Dover, DE: It was my understanding that the final stumbling block in the negotiations was the plan to release paramilitary prisoners and that they finally agreed that they would release all prisoners within two years. How do you think this move will impact the political stability of the region? Won't these hardened loyalist and republicans go right back to killing one another?
Dr. Joseph Thompson, former State Department Scholar-Diplomat for Irish Affairs, responds:
If the electorate ratifies the April 1998 agreement, the UK will set up an independent sentence review body by June to examine each case of incarcerated paramilitary inmates. The majority of these 340 paramilitary prisoners are already eligible for release by the end of this year. According to the agreed 50% remission rule, 235 will be free by 1999, an additional 34 by the millennium, and the final third by the following year. This release program is tempered by the fact that it only applies to those groups which keep the cease-fire agreement. Released inmates will be recalled to prison to fill out their sentence if their group takes up violence again.
When I had the opportunity to visit republican and loyalists inmates in the Maze prison three years ago, two things struck me. First, these paramilitary men and women sincerely believed that they were involved in a military campaign. When such conflicts end, terrible anger exists but not the desire to continue the killing. Second, when I asked them what would happen if the conflict would ever end in their lifetime, republican and loyalist prisoners told me that they would gladly return to a normal life (or as normal as possible) as quickly as possible. My conclusion, therefore, is that such prisoner releases will not negatively impact the overall political stability of the province.
Dr. John Darby, of the University of Ulster, responds:
The release of prisoners is also likely to be a priority in the coming months. Both Republicans and Loyalists regard them as political prisoners who would not be in jail for ‘normal' crimes and therefore should be released following an agreement. This position is challenged by a number of people, including some whose families and friends have been killed or injured during the Troubles. The political add-on is that releases will be needed to keep both Loyalists and Republicans locked into the process.
In practice the early release of prisoners has already started in the Irish Republic and may soon follow in Northern Ireland. This is likely to shift the debate to a more positive level, with greater interest in how prisoners might be integrated into normal society through jobs, training and education. The process of integrating ex-prisoners and ex-paramilitants is a common problem for any violent society which has reached an agreement, and South Africa (for Example) has managed it very sucessfully.
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