Examining Myanmar's Military Regime

The current military leadership in Burma is very strictly controlled by a top general known as Senior Gen. Than Shwe. He is elderly and unwell and is not expected to remain in power much longer.

We don't really know what the attitudes of his successors will be, but we hope that some of them can see how much damage his policies have done to the country's economic and human resources. When others in the military leadership appear to be challenging the senior general's policy, they are quickly removed from office and sometimes jailed, so those who may disagree with him are careful to keep it to themselves right now.

It is possible that there could be an internal military coup; this has happened in the past. However, it would not necessarily end military rule in Burma and could well lead to a period of political instability. Much work must be done to build and rebuild the political, economic, and social structures in Burma that will be required to support and sustain democratic governance. This will require some form of mediation and agreement with the military leadership that comes after Than Shwe.

It will not happen so long as he heads the government.

What is needed for these leaders within junta to act in accordance with their conscience is some level of assurance and political space inside Burma that they can trust so that they have other options rather than the posts they are holding in the junta. This space has to be created by the opposition, namely the National League for Democracy (NLD), inside Burma.

The NLD made the first significant offer to the junta on February 12, 2006, to convene the parliament with the winners of the 1990 elections in turn for the recognition of junta as an interim executive power holder.

In addition, the 1988 Generation student groups began to use the language and strategies to create such a space to protect these leaders. They began to mobilize the public with the Open Heart Campaign and the White Expression Campaign right before 2007 monk-led protests broke out in Burma. The junta re-arrested key leaders of the 88 Generation groups inside Burma. The creation of this space will be just the beginning. There is no simple answer to your question.