PREDICTING EARTHQUAKES

August 18, 2004
		In recent years, scientists have been moving ever closer to one day being able to predict when and where a major earthquake could occur. A leading scientist in earthquake prediction answers your questions about the latest developments in the field.

Online NewsHour Special Report: Predicting Earthquakes Forum Introduction What is the difference between a "return interval" and a "recurrence interval"? Seismologists study earthquakes, but who studies how to mobilize society for disaster? Why is it that the New Madrid Fault is very rarely mentioned in quake discussions? If people could turn on their TVs to find out an earthquake was coming, wouldn't there be widespread panic? Are we going to have a 19-year quake cycle here in California? What are the chances of a major earthquake through the mid-U.S.A., where none has occurred since the early 1800s?	Eric Paul of Bloomfield, N.J., asks: Seismologists specialize in the study of earthquakes, but what group of scholars studies how to mobilize society for disaster? Obviously it takes far more willpower to prepare for a magnitude 8 San Francisco quake in, say, 2004, than it takes in, say, 1907, since the 1906 quake was fresh on everyone's mind. Who studies this? Dr. William Ellsworth responds: Social scientists are very much involved in the study of and planning for natural disasters. A good source of information about this work can be found at www.colorado.edu/hazards.

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