PREDICTING EARTHQUAKES

August 18, 2004
		In recent years, scientists have been moving ever closer to one day being able to predict when and where a major earthquake could occur. A leading scientist in earthquake prediction answers your questions about the latest developments in the field.

Online NewsHour Special Report: Predicting Earthquakes Forum Introduction What is the difference between a "return interval" and a "recurrence interval"? Seismologists study earthquakes, but who studies how to mobilize society for disaster? Why is it that the New Madrid Fault is very rarely mentioned in quake discussions? If people could turn on their TVs to find out an earthquake was coming, wouldn't there be widespread panic? Are we going to have a 19-year quake cycle here in California? What are the chances of a major earthquake through the mid-U.S.A., where none has occurred since the early 1800s?	Mary George of St. Louis, Mo., asks: Why is it that the New Madrid Fault is very rarely mentioned in quake discussions? They say it is going to be very bad and with no quake building codes being used and everyone has basements, how bad do they expect it to be? Dr. William Ellsworth responds: The New Madrid earthquake zone actually gets a lot of attention in the media. The U.S. Geological Survey office for the study of the New Madrid region, and more generally earthquake hazards in the central and eastern U.S. is located in Memphis, Tenn. Their Web site at http://www.ceri.memphis.edu/usgs/ contains a wealth of information about earthquake hazards and mitigation strategies. The risk posed by earthquakes in the New Madrid region plays a significant role in the national building codes. Information about the National Earthquake Hazard Maps is available on the Web at http://eqhazmaps.usgs.gov/.