|
|
The Texas GOP wrangles over sending a delegation to the San Diego Convention that is completely pro-life and in line with the Christian right's agenda.
Bob Dole espouses his position on abortion
Choosing sides: Several Republican governors say they favor taking the pro-life plank out of the Republican platform.
Browse the Online NewsHour's Election Page
From Texas to Virginia, the South this year will pit Democrat against Republican and, in some cases, Republican against Republican.
Topic "A" is abortion. Deep riffs have already occurred in the Texas GOP, where the state convention for nominating delegates to the national convention in San Diego was pulled apart by the Christian right, challenging any delegate that was not completely in sync with their pro-life plank. Religious conservatives went so far as to try to prevent
Senator Kay Bailey Hutchinson from going to San Diego as an at-large delegate. Though Hutchinson was elected two years ago by the largest margin of any Republican in state history, the popular junior senator favors abortion under some limited conditions.
Texas Senator Phil Gramm came to Hutkinson's defense, saying if she didn't go to San Diego, he wouldn't go either, and he condemned the far right's challenge. Gramm believes it's a very small minority that is "bullying" the Southern GOP. But is it?
Hastings Wyman, Jr. founder and editor of the Southern Political Report answered your questions on what's going on in Southern politics. Is the South really swinging to the far right as the Texas example illustrates, or is a small minority with sophistocated tactics temporarily forcing the agenda? And how will the Democrats fair? Bill Clinton speaks more conservatively than in previous years, but is he moderate enough?
A question from Maureen Madden of Cambridge, MA
What do you see as the fallout from the recent decisions by the Supreme Court to strike down several majority minority districts in the south? Who will really benefit and who will be hurt?
Hastings Wyman responds:
The decision will hurt the political fortunes of Southern Republicans and of black Democrats in the South, and will help white Democrats. Under the old redistricting policy, in which African-American voters were combined into districts with black majorities, the number of black members of Congress from the South increased from 5 to 17. Moreover, because surrounding districts had larger white majorities, the GOP gained some 30 congressional seats in the South in 2 elections.
Under recent rulings, the courts and legislatures will not be able to draw extremely non-compact districts with black majorites. That'll hurt black candidates because they get elected mainly in majority-black districts. The decision will also put more black voters in other districts, making them more competitive for Democratic candidates, especially white candidates.
The ruling may take a while to have major effects, because a black or Republican incumbent may hold on to a district that he or she could not win as a non-incumbent candidate. But eventually, the ruling will mean fewer blacks and fewer Republicans from the South in Congress. It is also likely to eventually affect state legislative, county commissioner and school board elections.
A question from Tom O'Connor of Fairfax, VA
It is easy to see the conservative bent of southern politics. But does that equate with electing Republicans? A couple cases in point, Ollie North went down to defeat, so did the lt. governor candidate Mike Farris (both in Virginia). With things like that and the out-of-control nature of the Texas GOP convention, is it not possible that the GOP is swinging too far to the right and that "New" Democrats may lay claim to the moderate conservative vote?
Hastings Wyman responds:
To stay in the winner's column, the Republicans in the South need both the old line suburbanite/Main Street economic conservatives and their new-found allies, the Religious Right. Whether they can keep both groups happy isn't settled. Clearly, Virginia voters haven't been willing to elect candidates from the GOP's right wing, either Mike Ferris or Oliver North. The results are mixed or uncertain in other states. In South Carolina in '94, Christian conservative David Beasley won the GOP's gubernatorial primary and then the governorship. But he also had the backing of popular Gov. Carroll Campbell (R), who is from the party's traditional wing. But all the other religious right candidates lost the GOP's '94 statewide primary. Today's Georgia Senate primary (R) will also gauge the relative strength of secular and religious Republicans.
In general, the Christian conservatives control most of the official party organizations in the South but aren't as successful in either primaries or General Elections. Thus, in Texas, the Christian Coalition controls the party machinvery, but mainstream GOPers, such as Gov. George W. Bush and U.S. Senators Phil Gramm and Kay Bailey Hutchinson, hold major elective offices. Whether the GOP can keep both groups happy -- in the South or the nation -- is up in the air.
A question from Alan Fried of Columbia, SC
According to Politics Now electoral college maps, Georgia is now in the Clinton column and Texas is evenly divided. What is the reason for these changes in Democratic appeal from 1992? Also, how do you foresee the Gantt/Helms Senate contest going?
Hastings Wyman responds:
State polls show Clinton currently leads in 6 southern states (AR, FL, GA, KY, LA & TN) with 72 electoral votes. Dole is ahead in 6 (AL, MS, NC, SC, TX & VA) with 83 electoral votes (his leads in TX & VA are razor-thin). In my judgment, the following factors have led to Clinton's resurgence in the South:
1) The GOP congress closed down the government and looked extreme.
2) The GOP medicare/medicaid proposals made lower income voters nervous.
3) Women -- especially working women -- aren't comfortable with many GOP proposals, including its anti-abortion position.
4) Prosperity continues -- there's nothing for voters to worry about.
5) Dole hasn't offered an alternative that looks more attractive than the status quo.As for the North Carolina Senate race, Jesse Helms usually wins narrowly -- by 53-47 percent or so. It'll be close again and Harvey Gantt could pull an upset, but polls show Helms leading -- by 46 percent to 38 percent in late April -- and my guess is he'll win again, narrowly.
A question from Lisa Mohler of Harrisburg, PA
I am wondering about the stability of the Republican party in the South. I know the pundits all say that the south is solidly Republican, but my question is: isn't the party starting to splinter? If you look at the Texas GOP fight and the in-fighting in the Virginia Senate Primary, it looks like the GOP isn't so grand. Are these intra-party fights an aberration or is it the beginning of real rifts in the southern GOP?
Hastings Wyman responds:
See my answer to Mr. O'Connor, above. The GOP does have a problem, particularly when there's no over-riding issue -- the economy or war -- to help unite the 2 Republican factions. But remember that the Democrats maintained a working majority in Congress and across the nation by maintaining an alliance of Southern conservatives and non-Southern liberals, an alliance that was often strained, but still served the Democrats well. Today, the 2 Republican factions have lots of incentives to fashion a workable compromise: The mainstream candidates want to win elections and the Christian Coalition, including its leader Pat Robertson, want greater influence in national affairs. But whether the 2 groups can manage to subjugate their differences to their common goal remains, as I noted above, uncertain.
A question from William Tobis of Washington, D.C.
What effects, if any, do you think will occur now that two southern Republicans are running both houses of Congress? Will these leaders further isolate those GOPers from the Northeast and rust belt? Or are they the future of the GOP?
Hastings Wyman responds:
The prominence of Southerners in the GOP's congressional leadership is a logical result of the voting trends of the past several decades -- Republicans have been gaining in the South, Democrats gaining in the Northeast. My guess is that Southerners will remain a prominent part of the leadership, whether in the top spots or just below that level.
The influence of Southerners in the GOP is different from their role in the Democratic party. Southern Democrats were a minority in their party, often at odds with the majority. Southern Republican reinforce the GOP's conservative majority. I see no major change in the near future.
A question from Matt Corey of Austin, TX
Speaker Gingrich has been pummeled in the polls and by the pundits, but what do people in the south think of him? Is he locally popular or are we going to see a second Speaker go down in defeat?
Hastings Wyman responds:
A statewide survey in Georgia in late April showed voters approved of President Clinton's performance in office by 54-38 percent, but disapproved of Speaker Gingrich's by 50-36 percent. Nevertheless, Gingrich has a lot of influential supporters in the business community and in the Southern GOP establishment. I think he'll win reelection and will probably continue to be a national figure. If the GOP loses the House bad, however, I wouldn't be surprised to see an anti-Newt move among House Republicans -- though I doubt it will get much Southern GOP support.
Click here for a forum menu.
| |||||
 | |||||
| |||||
|
|
| |||
| |||||
| |||||
| Support the kind of journalism done by the NewsHour...Become a member of your local PBS station. | |||||
