PREDICTING EARTHQUAKES

June 2004
Photo: Karl V. Steinbrugge Collection, Earthquake Engineering Research Center		In recent years, scientists have been moving ever closer to one day being able to predict when and where a major earthquake could occur. A leading scientist in earthquake prediction takes your questions about the latest developments in the field. Editor's Note: Click here for forum answers.

Online NewsHour Special Report: Predicting Earthquakes	As scientists make leaps and bounds in learning about why and how earthquakes occur, they become increasingly more likely to be able to accurately predict when a cataclysmic quake will occur. With the introduction of new technologies and the help of new tools, such as an observatory built right into the extremely active San Andreas Fault, scientists are on the brink of discoveries that could one day save millions of lives. Dr. William Ellsworth is a leader in research on understanding the earthquake cycle and the physics of earthquakes. He is an authority on the seismicity of the San Andreas Fault system, the analysis of earthquake locations, microseismicity, the seismic cycle, earthquake forecasting, earthquake nucleation, geophysical inverse theory and seismic tomography. Much of his research has played a central role in the long-term forecasts of major earthquakes in California, including the 1999 report of 30-year earthquake probabilities for the San Francisco Bay region. Ellsworth takes your questions on the latest developments in earthquake prediction.