Borders and Mexico's Drug War

The increase in violence appears to be largely related to the strategy of dismantling the cartels and jailing their leadership, which has led to divisions within groups and fights over trafficking routes.

In the past, cocaine availability has risen and fallen in cycles, so I'm not sure we have any definitive answers about whether this is a permanent trend. There does seem to be a long-term drop in demand for cocaine; however, other drugs are taking its place, so overall drug use appears fairly stable.

Officials inside the DOJ (Department of Justice) will tell you that the increasing price of cocaine and the less purity of it, since September 2007, is a measure of the success of all the interdiction efforts by the U.S. but especially in Mexico.

At the same time, the increase in violence in Mexico is related mostly to stronger enforcement efforts against the traffickers by President Felipe Calderon -- more than 40,000 military personnel in the streets. So, this is the paradoxical intersection that the government of Mexico is still failing to explain to its people: Does success in the drug war means greater violence? Until when?

The explanation given by the Mexican attorney general is that the violence will continue until authorities disband the operations of the current four huge drug cartels -- only contained through military operations -- into 100 smaller and less powerful syndicates that can be controlled through law enforcement.