CONFLICT IN CHECHNYA

March 2003
		The struggle for independence in Chechnya, now more than ten years old, has claimed thousands of lives and stunted economic growth in the small republic. What drives the conflict? Thomas de Waal, a journalist who has written extensively on Russia and the Caucasus, answers your questions on the complex situation. Mr. de Waal is editor of the Institute for War and Peace Reporting's weekly Caucasus Reporting Service, which carries regular reports from Chechnya and can be found at www.iwpr.net.

Online NewsHour Special Report: Conflict in Chechnya Forum Introduction Why is Russia not letting Chechnya go since others were let out of the old Soviet Union? Do you feel that the Russian government's main interest in Chechnya has been the oil line that runs through the territory? If the Cold War is supposedly over, why does the American Press so play up the unrealistically anti-Russian angle of "the Chechens are (supposedly) freedom fighters, and the Russians are oppressors?" Are there any lessons to be learned from the struggle in Chechnya in terms of urban warfare and the particular challenge it presents? Do you see any chance for a future potential political settlement between Moscow and separatist Chechen leaders?

The Online NewsHour asks: Do you see any chance for a potential political settlement between Moscow and separatist Chechen leaders? If not, does Chechnya have any chance to rebuild and establish any kind of civil rule anytime in the near future? Thomas de Waal responds: Last Sunday (March 23) Moscow conducted what it called a "constitutional referendum" in Chechnya for a new charter, which directly asserts that the republic is part of the Russian Federation and hands over powers to a pro-Moscow Chechen administration. The results say 96 per cent of the population voted "yes." I need hardly tell you how dubious that sounds, particularly coming from a place like Chechnya which has had such a long history of suffering at the hands of Russia and given there were no international observers on hand. The danger is that the Kremlin will use this outcome as an excuse to say the problem of Chechnya is "solved" and that Chechens have no complaints against Moscow. But of course that is not so. The legitimately elected rebel leader of Chechnya Aslan Maskhadov is still leading armed resistance from the mountains. He is probably not as popular as he was when he was voted into office in 1997, but it is fair to say that many Chechens still support him. At the moment there is no political process at all and Moscow has declared Maskhadov -- who is, relatively speaking, a moderate -- to be a "terrorist." There is a real danger that, as long as Moscow refuses to have any dialogue with the moderate rebels, the radicals will gain in influence. And by those I mean fighters with links to the Middle East and al-Qaeda. So even if Chechnya is out of the headlines and relatively quiet at the moment, I'm afraid it has the potential to come up with more news-grabbing horrors at any time. That makes me very pessimistic.