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 | WHERE TO FROM HERE?A Look at Russia's Future |
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Click here for Simon Marks' answers to your questions on Alexander Lebed and Russian politics.
NewsHour Backgrounders
On June 18 Simon Marks fielded your questions about the Russian elections.
November 5, 1996:
A report on the apparently successful heart bypass operation on Russian President Yeltsin.
October 17, 1996:
A background report and panel discussion on Alexander Lebed's dismissal as National Security Chief.
October 3, 1996:
An interview with Michael DeBakey, Boris Yeltsin's American surgeon, prior to the heart bypass operation.
August 21, 1996:
A report on the Chechen cease fire brokered by Alexander Lebed.
July 4, 1996:
A Simon Marks report on Boris Yeltsin's victory in the Presidential runoff election.
July 4, 1996:
A panel of Russia experts discussthe implications of Boris Yeltsin's victory.
June 17, 1996:
A Simon Marks backgrounder and a Warren Christopher interview about Boris Yeltsin's first round election victory.
May 24, 1996:
A Simon Marks interview with the Russian Communist Party leader Gennady Zyuganov.
Complete NewsHour coverage of events in Russia.
"Anyone who knows anything about medicine knows that after three heart attacks, five bypasses and with concerns about a number of other organs, a person cannot work at full strength." -- Russian Communist leader Gennady Zyuganov
When you look at Russia, there are many questions about the direction the country is taking. This remains true despite the fact that last summer's Presidential elections returned the politician that most observers viewed as providing stability -- Boris Yeltsin. But Yeltsin, as Zyuganov's quote above indicates, hasn't been in good shape physically since before the first round of elections in June. Since then, every rare appearance he has made has been reminiscent of ailing leaders of the Soviet era being propped up at May Day parades.
There are other considerations beyond Yeltsin. The apprehension of another Russian double agent in the CIA reveals that spying on the United States actively continues.
Other highly visible events include Yeltsin firing his Secretary of National Security, Alexander Lebed. Lebed was accused off trying to amass power in the wake of Yeltsin's illness. The ex-general and hero of the Afghan war had successfully negotiated a cease fire with rebel forces in Chechnya and ousted the head of the Russian army after a very public struggle. His popularity amongst the lower ranks of the army, disgruntled by low, infrequent pay and the war against the Chechens, led many to believe that his dismissal would prompt a military coup. While that has not happened, he remains the loose cannon of Russian politics.
The economy too has been shaky. October brought the news that the IMF withheld a second $340 million dollar loan to the government because of it's inability to crack down on corporate and individual tax evaders. Less than 75 percent of projected tax income for 1996 has been raised, according to the IMF, and the picture has actually darkened in recent months.
Another scene projected to the world likens Moscow to Chicago in the 1920's, complete with mobsters and machine driven local politics. The two most recent images to reinforce this stereotype were the gangland shooting of an American businessman, and a bomb-blast that killed 13 and injured dozens more at a meeting of Afghan veterans in the capital. There have been no arrests in these cases, nor in the murders of a number of other prominent figures in recent years, including a reporter, a TV personality, a priest and several bankers.
And the situation in Chechnya, though stalled, remains unresolved.
Our Forum asks: What does the future hold for Russia with Yeltsin at the helm? How much of a threat does Lebed represent to Yeltsin? With Lebed's support amongst the a large portion of the disgruntled and underpaid army, is there a real threat of a coup? Are western reforms of the economy making any headway? How do the Russian people perceive the outlook for their country? Is the war in Chechnya over?
Our forum guest, reporting from Moscow, is Simon Marks, the NewsHour's special correspondent in Russia. Simon Marks has been covering Russia since 1991, and was Moscow bureau chief for Christian Science Monitor Television from 1991 to 1993.
Scroll down to find Simon Marks' answers to your questions.
Additional Comments
- Is Alexander Lebed another form of the Tsar-like leader that Russians often seem to turn to?
- How important an issue is health care reform in Russia?
- How much of a political influence does Lebed have? Will Yeltsin invite him back into government?
- What is Lebed's outlook towards America-Russia relations?
- What kind of following does Lebed have?
- What are the chances that the Russian army will revolt?
- Are the Russian people getting fed up with the upheaval brought by economic reforms?
A question from Suzanne Reymer of Seattle, WA
Lebed seems to be in the traditional Russian mold of a Father Tsar, the sometimes benevolent, sometimes angry and intimidating figure that Russians love and hate. Do you think that he would be an authoritarian leader? Is this what the Russian people actually want and need at this point in time?
Simon Marks responds
Last time we conducted an online forum about Russia (on June 18th) Alexander Lebed had just been taken into the government by President Yeltsin. I see that I remarked then that "General Lebed is now center-stage in Russian politics." That's perhaps even more true today than it was just 5 months ago, although Alexander Lebed has, in the intervening period, gone full circle through the famous revolving doors of the Kremlin!
When he exited the Kremlin, many commentators observed that Lebed would prove far more dangerous to Boris Yeltsin outside the government than within it. I think that still holds true, despite the President's seemingly remarkable recovery from quintuple heart bypass surgery. With Yeltsin slowly clambering back into the saddle, Lebed himself no longer seems to sense that a snap Presidential election is going to occur. But during his visit to the USA last week, and in his NewsHour interview with Elizabeth Farnsworth, he made it clear that he is focussing on a bid for the Presidency in 4 years' time.
I think you're correct to observe that Lebed fits the traditional mold of "benevolent dictator," though he's working very much to his own unique script. Lately, he has started consistently to express his belief in democracy in what is clearly an attempt to persuade Western officials that he's on their side of the fence. But Lebed's personal background is entirely rooted in the vertical command structures of the Red Army... never much of a democratic institution at the best of times. It's important to remember that until a few weeks ago his ONLY experience of life outside the former USSR was his tour of duty in Afghanistan. Last week, he saw the United States in person for the first time.
So, I think it's likely that Lebed would be an authoritarian ruler, in the sense that his politics are largely built around his personality, and around an 'iron fist' that he has described as "intelligent, powerful and commanding." We'll find out in 4 years time whether that's something Russians want -- if an election were held in Russia tomorrow, opinion polls suggest Lebed would become President. As for whether it's what Russians need... that depends on your view of developments in Russia to date. Clearly there is a craving for law and order in a society now riddled with disorder; but law and order policies in the hands of men with little political experience have often led to chilling consequences in the past.
A question from Dr. Sheldon Levy of Providence, RIIn Lebed's interview this week on PBS, he was asked what the first things he would do if he were president. The first thing he mentioned had to do with cleaning up the environment because only 10% of children in Russia were healthy. I've been working on some health care reform projects in Russia through USAID and also have consulted with the U.S. government about health care reform in Russia so I'm very interested in Lebed comments. Here is the question: Has health care reform in Russia become a high profile political issue and if so how are the various political factions addressing this issue?
Simon Marks responds
First, we should take General Lebed's figures on the health of Russian children with a large pinch of salt. Remember, this is the man who a few months ago claimed that 74 per cent of the world's inventions were dreamt up by Russians." Quite where he found such a scientifically precise figure continues to bemuse many observers!
However, there is no doubt that standards of public health have catastrophically deteriorated in the years since the Soviet Union's collapse. Figures published last month by the Russian government show the country's; population continues to shrink -- by 350,000 over the past year. The death rate (14.5 per every 1,000 people) now exceeds the birth rate (9.1 per 1,000 people), and in the first 2/3rds of this year, the number of births registered fell by nearly 5 per cent compared to the same period one year ago. Demographers say they've never seen such a radical decline in an industrials nation's population for reasons other than war or famine.
Until now, the decline in public health has not been a significant political issue, and it's noteworthy that Lebed chose to single it out last week. He may sense that the health issue is a weak spot for President Yeltsin. In his NewsHour interview last Friday, Lebed said that "when people are healthy, they can do anything", and this may become a significant subtext to his bid for the Presidency four years hence. However, there's no indication at present that other political forces in Russian society are preparing to focus on the same issue.
A question from Jim Leonard of Denver, COWhat impact will Alexander Lebed have on current government policy?
Gen. Lebed indicated that Yeltsin will call him back into the government. Will this happen? If yes, when?
Simon Marks responds
The second question first; at this point, it seems highly unlikely that Boris Yeltsin could ever invite General Lebed back into the government. In announcing the General's dismissal, the President was witheringly critical of the man to whom he had turned only 120 days previously. He claimed Lebed was unable to get along with his colleagues in the government; and while he didn't offer any support for claims by some government members that Lebed was planning a coup d'etat, the President did accuse the General of general disloyalty, given his alliance with former Presidential bodyguard Alexander Zorzhakov (of whom more below).
However, we are talking about Russia .... and the Kremlin's revolving door works in both directions. The current Presidential Chief of Staff, Anatoly Chubais, has been in favor, out of favor, and then back in favor again, so it isn't entirely inconceivable that President Yeltsin might seek to Co-opt Lebed in the future. It's the Russian leader's habit constantly to play his aides off against one another, and the cast of characters regularly changes with the President playing numerous variations on a theme.
As for Lebed's impact on policy: his clearest impact during his brief tenure as head of the Security Council came in the breakaway region of Chechnya. There he appears to have succeeded in ending the bloody civil war that may have cost up to 80 thousand lives. His ongoing impact on government policy towards Chechnya remains questionable, although it's important to note that those who have replaced him in the Yeltsin entourage (former Parliamentary speaker Ivan Rybkin, and entrepreneur Boris Berezovsky) appear, at this point, to be honoring the Lebed-inspired peace treaty agreed with Chechen commanders. In part, there seems to be a genuine desire by the government not to get dragged back into the war; in part, there's also a sense that Lebed would be able to use the resumption of hostilities to his own political advantage. (And speaking of personal advantage, it was reported last week that entrepreneur Berezovsky -- once a used car dealer, now deputy head of the Security Council -- told European officials that he's keen to build an auto factory in Chechnya),
In other areas, Lebed certainly plans to make his voice heard, and could at the very least act as a brake on the government's freedom-of-movement. In a very real sense, he has an opportunity to emerge as an opposition leader in a way that Communist Party leader Gennady Zyuganov never managed. So while there seems to be genuine relief in Kremlin circles that Yeltsin is recovering, and that the Lebed thorn has been removed from his side, I suspect that Kremlin officials may come to regret the fact that Lebed is now totally out of their control. For the first time since the fall of the USSR, the Yeltsin administration may be regularly forced to consider the short-term implications of its actions, not just the long-term effects
A question from Eric Wold of Arlington, VABased on some of Lebed's past statements regarding certain religious organizations, namely the Jews and Mormons, if he is re-admitted or is elected to office, what is the future of Americans in Russia with regards to business, as well as travel?
Simon Marks responds
Alexander Lebed's widely publicized remarks about Jews, Mormons and other religious groups caused a storm of controversy in the United States. And that storm astounded General Lebed. Three days after he described the Mormons as "mold and filth," and accused a questioner at one of his appearances of "talking like a Jew", I had an opportunity to ask Lebed about his remarks. He told the NewsHour then that he had intended no offence, and "couldn't understand the withering reaction to his comments, I think he genuinely didn't understand that he had caused so much offence, and I suspect the lesson was a sobering one for him.
I don't mean to make any excuses for Alexander Lebed here. But it is important to remember that he is a career military man, totally raised on a life in the Red Army. As I noted above, he has had no widespread foreign experience; he has not been exposed to western ideas, customs or practices; and I suspect that the reaction to his comments taught him a) that he's now a public figure, on whose every word reporters hang, and b) that he's got an awful lot to learn about the wider world.
There are some indications that Lebed has altered his manner and style in recent weeks. In the USA last week, and at NATO headquarters in Brussels before that, he wowed his hosts.... cracking jokes, smiling, and choosing his words very carefully. He is also positioning himself as the investors friend in Russia today. He told the News Hour that he's planning a political party that will exist largely to protect the interests of business; he spoke enthusiastically about the role Americans can play as investors in Russia; and economists have pointed out that in the summer's election campaign, General Lebed's published economic policy was one of the most liberal on offer.
And yet, there is the ongoing fear caused by his original remarks; the sense that he could be a wolf in sheep's clothing. He remains a work-in-progress, and predictions in this particular area are too risky to venture.
A question from RJ Padbatan of Tempe, AZRussia is such a huge country with such diversity in ethnicity. So far we have heard only about General Lebed. Is there any group or any movement behind this general? He seemed very much alone except for the general masses. If he becomes president who would he chose to be his staff? Would they be from the military,all of them? Would he be forced to compromise with some of mafia-politicos for survival?
Simon Marks responds
Alexander Lebed was thrust to prominence on the strength of the 11 million votes he won in the first round of last summer's Presidential election campaign. He had a skeleton support staff, mostly made up of his trusted associates from the Russian Army, and they remain his principal backers today. Last week, at briefings in Washington D.C., he claimed that many of them are now successful business people who are bankrolling his new political party, "Honor and Fatherland."
However, Alexander Lebed remains a man desperately in search of allies. In the Yeltsin administration, he is up against not only Russia's most consummate political operators, but also a team now largely controlled and financed by an alliance of leading Russian industrialists and bankers. While General Lebed's contacts may have been successful entrepreneurs in recent years, they do not come close to matching the resources enjoyed by President Yeltsin's backers. In part, this explains Lebed's desire to be viewed as friendly towards business. It also explains his hasty alliance with another former member of the Yeltsin team: ex-Presidential bodyguard, Alexander Korzhakov,
The Korzhakov/Lebed alliance is a marriage of convenience between strange bedfellows. Korzhakov was ousted by Yeltsin after years of manoeuvering within the Kremlin; he has very few allies, and even fewer sympathizers. But he does have information: he was present at Yeltsin's side during every key event over the past 5 years, and he's made it clear recently that he's prepared to use the information at his disposal, in order to wreak revenge against the Yeltsin team. Korzhakov is also rumored to have access to large sums of money, a rumor that, correctly or incorrectly, dogs every member of the President's inner circle. So, Lebed has brought Korzahkov aboard his bandwagon, and is supporting the former bodyguard's bid for a vacant Parliamentary seat in the city of Tula. This, of course, does not guarantee Korzhakov a place in a Lebed Presidential Administration... but does illustrate the degree to which the General is prepared to compromise with unsavory characters in order to secure his political goals.
A question from K. Reich of Washingtonville, NYI have been reading numerous articles about conditions in the army and other services. Do you think that there is going to be open rebellion if conditions do not improve.
Simon Marks responds
In his NewsHour interview last Friday, and at his appearances in New York and Washington, Lebed again made dire predictions about the state of morale in the Russian armed forces. It would be wrong to dismiss his views as hyperbole, especially given his level of experience in the Russian military.
In the aftermath of the Chechnya fiasco, the Russian army is in dire straits. Anyone who has visited a Russian military base can tell you about the appalling conditions in which career servicemen are forced to live; about the lack of reliability of the military's equipment; about the hazing, and often the suicide of young recruits; and about the failure of numerous Yeltsin-appointed government commissions to deal with the problems
Lebed has been warning darkly of imminent rebellion for many months now. So far, there is no indication that the level of organization for any kind of uprising exists, nor any indication that an uprising is planned. In my view, this is partly because the Russian military is not a monolith, and should not be viewed as such. In the West we often make a mistake when we ask: "What will the Army do?" There is no single, identifiable "army"; there is no unity in decision-making; and different branches of the forces receive different treatment from the government. In short, while not ruling out 'open rebellion', I suspect that at this point the risks remain minimal.
A question from J. M. Rice of Los Angeles, CADo you think the Russian people understand that any political upheaval, even for the better, demands hardship, sacrifice and patience? Do you think the leadership could be doing a better job in conveying this message? From the widespread discontent I've heard, it would seem that there is a lack of faith in the future in Russia. Is what I'm hearing exaggerated reporting, failure of leadership or just natural Russian pessimism?
Simon Marks responds
By now, the Russian people know better than most that political upheaval takes hardship, sacrifice and patience! I think the lack of faith and the pessimism of which you speak is rooted in the tact that millions of Russians simply haven't experienced a significant change for the better in the past 5 years, or at least don't believe that they have.
It's important to remember that the changes that often grab the headlines -- the influx of foreign investment, the availability of consumer durables, the development of a leisure industry -- remain very much Moscow-centric phenomena. Outside Moscow, St. Petersburg and the other urban connurbations, it's still very difficult to detect the fruits of change. Over the summer, the NewsHour's team in Moscow traveled to the picturesque tourist center of Yaroslavl. Despite bus-loads of western tourists passing through the city each day, the main hotel had no hot water, there wasn't a single coffee shop or diner to be found anywhere, and precious-little sign of any foreign investment. While it will inevitably going to take generations for wealth to spread through Russian society, 5 years is a long time in the life-span of any single generation, hence the widespread pessimism.
I think there's no doubt that the Yeltsin administration could be doing more to convey the message that patience is required. But it could also be doing more to spread the wealth. It's hard to get away from the impression that the Yeltsin administration remains dominated by top and middle-level bureaucrats intent primarily on securing their own personal financial future, rather than that of the nation at large. So put Russian 'natural pessimism' down to years of watching their rulers put themselves first -- a trend that continues in Moscow today.
Alain O.J. Londes of Toronto, Ontario, Canada
Russia's immediate future is confused. Despite Yeltsin's recent surgery, he is surrounded by a formidable presidential staff that is the main force behind the executive power in Russia today. Chubais is clearly one of the leading figures. When I was in Russia two years ago, I spoke to so many people who sensed a link between the executive power and organized crime.
Lebed was then and to a certain extent is still seen as a figure that can help restore "order" in these difficult and uncertain times. Russia is not a thriving modern democracy. Far from it. To assume that we can transplant our concept of democracy and free market economy to Russia is a serious mis- take. Unfortunately, Russians are all too familiar with the dark examples of a free market economy as exemplified by the Russian mob, the role of banks, etc. Consequently, they are extremely pessimistic if they don't belong to the very rich segments of society.
Lebed is not a coup threat as some have suggested. He doesn't have the military nor social support for such an initiative. Time will tell whether he has any political maturity to lead Russia. Whatever his intentions, he still has to overcome the executive power control over government and the electoral process.
On the issue of Chechnya; although there might be a ceasefire in place, Russia can't accept that land gaining complete independence.
Russia is in a major transition phase that will take a long time but is also struggling with its historical search for identity in the vast Eurasian space.
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