TRACKING HURRICANES

October 2003
		In recent years, scientists have made leaps and bounds in improving our ability to predict and track hurricanes, mitigating their destructive power. Two scientists, Dr. Naomi Surgi of the National Hurricane Center and Dr. William Gray of Colorado State University's Tropical Meteorology Project, answer your questions about the latest developments in predicting and tracking the devastating storms.

Online NewsHour Special Report: Tracking Hurricanes Forum Introduction How does your field approach view the work being done in chaos theory? Is lack of temperature soundings in the sea the main problem in track prediction? What are the flights through the hurricane like for the observers on board? Are you concerned that such warming might cause not continued warming but a total irreversible change in realities? I was wondering what role Linux and computer clustering have in NOAA's hurricane modeling efforts? Are there any hurricane models that treat a storm as an electrical model where temperature is represented as resistance?	Robert asks: Is lack of temperature soundings in the sea the main problem in track prediction? Dr. Naomi Surgi responds: No. Ocean observations will be important to improve intensity forecasts in coupled air-sea modeling systems in cases where sea surface temperatures effect intensity changes. The most important insitu observations (vs. remote observations, e.g. satellites) that have led to improved track prediction is from the GPS dropsondes. These instruments are released from NOAA's G-IV jet aircraft in the environment of the storm where measurements of wind, temperature and moisture are transmitted back to NOAA's Environmental Modeling Center for assimilation into the modeling systems. These observations have improved model track forecasts approximately 20 percent over the past several years. Future track forecast improvements will come from advancements in high resolution coupled models to include advanced data assimilation techniques to optimize future observations and state of the art physics suitable for high resolution. Dr. William Gray responds: Yes, it is one major problem to improved track prediction. Sarah Keller of Fairbanks, Alaska, asks: What are the flights through the hurricane like for the observers on board? With the prediction of possible future increase in intensity of storms, will there be increased risk for the observers? Certainly the data are important, but are there alternative ways with less risk? Dr. William Gray responds: Flights into Atlantic hurricanes have proven to be quite safe. There has not been a plane lost since 1955 and that was a two (not four) engine plane. Hurricanes are much safer to fly in than Great Plains severe weather. The turbulence is usually not so bad. There are no alternatives to observations from the aircraft.