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 source: NOAA | THE WRATH OF EL NIÑO October 3, 1997 |
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Return to this forum's introduction.
Questions answered in this forum:Where does El Niño get its energy? Will this El Niño be the biggest in 150 years? How does the NWS model El Niño? Does El Niño have any positive effects? What factors determine the frequency of El Niño? Who will suffer the most from El Niño?
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The National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center page on El Niño.
Walt Davison of Centerville, OH, asks: We've heard a lot about the negative effects of the El Niño phenomenon, but probably they are certain areas and people who may benefit (temporarily, no doubt) from the effects as well. Could you please include this other side of the story? What geographic areas may benefit? Who may profit? What are the extents of possible benefits? Please don't just say fishermen off the California coast.
Dr. Robert E. Livezey of the National Weather Service responds:
Dear Mr. Davison,
I'm a climatologist/meteorologist and not an expert on economic impacts, but even if I was your question would be very difficult to answer. Certainly I don't think there can be a simple answer that applies to everybody in a particular area under El Niño's influence. For example we know that El Niño decreases the risk of Atlantic and Gulf hurricanes and tropical storms. On the other hand a good part of the normal precipitation that falls in the Southeast and mid-Atlantic states in the Summer and Fall has its origin in tropical systems, and there are reasons to think that the ongoing mid-Atlantic drought may be related to the current El Niño.
One group for which it is probably safe to say will benefit from El Niño are home owners and building managers in the western two-thirds of Canada and the north central United States who are responsible for heating buildings this winter. These areas have historically been warmer than normal during El Niño Winters.
What factors influence the frequency of El Niño?
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