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 source: NOAA | THE WRATH OF EL NIÑO October 3, 1997 |
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Return to this forum's introduction.
Questions answered in this forum:Where does El Niño get its energy? Will this El Niño be the biggest in 150 years? How does the NWS model El Niño? Does El Niño have any positive effects? What factors determine the frequency of El Niño? Who will suffer the most from El Niño?
NewsHour Coverage
September 9, 1997
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Outside Links
The National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center page on El Niño.
Debra Price's English Class from Osaka, Japan, asks: YUKA KIRIHARA: There were so many typhoons in Japan this summer. Was it El Niño?
AYA MIYAJIMA: Where is the area in the world which is (in danger of being) most damaged by the phenomenon of El Niño?
Dr. Robert E. Livezey of the National Weather Service responds:
Dear Yuka,
Well, you've stumped me. Frankly, it would not be unreasonable to think that El Niño played a substantive role in the weather variability over the western Pacific region this summer, but I know of no studies that have clearly linked the two. This is an area that needs more attention.
Dear Aya,
Its really impossible to say which area on the globe will be most severely impacted by El Niño but I can at least list some potential problem areas. Probably the single biggest concern during an El Niño is the increased risk of drought in several parts of the world where food production is particularly sensitive to rainfall deficits, including Indonesia, Australia, Northeast Brazil,and Southeast Africa. The Ohio Valley, Montana and the northern Rockey Mountains in the United States, and parts of the high plains of Canada are quite likely to be dry this Winter. In contrast, increased vulnerability to storms from the Pacific led to localized flooding in parts of Chile this Summer (their Winter)and the heightened risk of such flooding is clearly a concern for California and other parts of the southwestern United States this Winter. As I suggested to Mr. Davison it is difficult in many other effected locations to say who will be adversely impacted by El Niño and who will not.
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