Cynthia Decker of Chicago, IL asks:

There seems to be a fundamental disagreement over who is truly running the Republic of Srpska. In your opinion how influential is the presidency that this nationalist politician has won and how concerned should the West be?

Steven Walker responds:

The West should be very concerned about Poplasen's victory in the Bosnian Serb entity. The entity presidency can be very influential, since the president appoints the prime minister and can exercise significant control or influence over the media, police, and army.

Three factors could limit Poplasen's power -- or enhance it. First, in much of Bosnia, real power has existed at the local level. War criminals and Mafia-like warlords have run the towns and villages in much of the Bosnian Serb entity. Poplasen will find allies with many of these local leaders, especially in the eastern part of the Bosnian Serb entity. This could enhance his control. If, however, local leaders, especially those who were allied with Plavsic or more moderate politicians, resist his influence, he could be constrained.

Second, the position of prime minister of the entity -- the head of the government -- could provide a counterbalance or even marginalize Poplasen. Poplasen will obviously try to engineer the election of an ally to the post. But the parliamentary election results may make it difficult for him to do so. A coalition of Serb moderates and Muslims and Croats could, as last year, keep moderate prim minister Dodik in power. Then the question, again, will be whether the U.s. and the West are finally going to make Dodik deliver on his promises of allowing major refugee returns in return for the significant western aid he has received to date.

Third, a less nationalist Serb was elected to the national collective presidency of Bosnia, replacing a staunch Karadzic ally. This offers a chance for the West to significantly strengthen and develop the national government which could further constrain Poplasen's ability to control events.