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RUSSIA'S CRISIS
Will Russia survive its economic and political crisis? September 17, 1998 |
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Questions asked
in this forum:
Is Primakov the right man for the job? What does the appointment of Primakov mean for Russia's relations with the West ? What should the United States and the West do to help Russia get through this crisis? What does the average Russian think about the current crisis? Can the appointment of Primakov be interpreted as a defeat for the reformist policies of Yeltsin? Is there any possibility that Yeltsin will dismantle the monopolies?
David Miller of Chicago, IL, asks: What does the appointment of Primakov mean for Russia's relations with the West? Michael McFaul, assistant professor of political science at Stanford University, responds:
Primakov has been a difficult person for the West to deal with over the last several years. He has promoted the idea of trying to balance the United States by allying Russia with China. He also has talked about renewing Russia's role as a major player in the Middle East. In an earlier period, the United States coulds always check Primakov's influence on foreign policy by getting on the phone with Yeltsin. This will no longer be the case as Yeltsin will be too weak to play this role.
However, remember that Primakov's plate is very full dealing with domestic problems. Russia cannot afford to devote attention to international issues now, but must focus on averting anarchy at home.
Leon Aron, resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute, responds:
Russian foreign policy will remain the same as it was under Primakov: tough on rhetoric critical of the U.S., attempting to re-create (at least symbolically) Russia's status as a superpower (as France has done since the 1950's), challenging the U.S. (e.g., in the Middle East, or arms trade), but, at the same time, accepting the status quo and avoiding direct confrontation with the West and cooperating with the West (and the U.S.) in many vital areas.
This is what is known as a "non-revisionist" foreign policy -- which is quite different from the policy of the Soviet Union, which was engaged in a zero-sum, global and ideologically-motivated competition with the United States in an effort radically to alter "the correlation of forced". You may read more about the Primakov foreign policy in Chapter One ("The Foreign Policy Doctrine of Russia and Its Domestic context"), which I contributed to Michael Mandelbaum, ed., The New Russian Foreign Policy (New York, Council of Foreign Relations, 1998)
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