Known as one of the most heavily armed cities in the world, Mogadishu has seen sporadic violence erupt between Islamic militants and government forces since the Islamic Courts Union was driven out of power in December 2006.

For years, weapons have been readily available throughout the city thanks to a flourishing illegal arms market that thrived in spite of a long-standing U.N. arms embargo.

"The problem was people could go and buy weapons at that market and sell them to whomever -- anybody with money could buy them," said Idd Mohamed, Somalia's deputy permanent representative to the United Nations.

According to Mohamed, the fledgling national government, with support from Ethiopian forces, is in the process of successfully disarming the capital. He described a threefold approach comprising tighter border security, confiscation drives and the closure of Irtogte, Mogadishu's main arms market.

But David Shinn, an adjunct professor at George Washington University's Elliot School of International Affairs and former U.S. ambassador to Ethiopia and Burkina Faso, called the TFG's plan a "fantasy." He pointed to similar attempts -- and subsequent failures -- by the United States in 1993.

"The US would block off the equivalent of a square block to prevent anyone from coming or going, knock down doors and confiscate a hundred or so weapons, but everyone knew that there were thousands of weapons in that area alone," said Shinn, who coordinated the State Department's Somalia policy during that intervention.

Mohamed contends the new government is using a combination of methods, such as communication with traditional leaders to show them the dangers of having weapons in the hands of civilians, along with forcibly removing weapons.

Shinn said Somalis will find ways around these efforts.

"People wrap [weapons] in plastic bags and bury them in the sand. The whole idea of disarming hand-carried weapons is ridiculous," Shinn said.

Other analysts have said that the weapons program, combined with other hard-line policies from Mogadishu, could end up alienating the marginally supported government that relies on its Christian neighbor Ethiopia to supply security in the Muslim nation.

"People are terrified, the police have been forcibly removing the headscarves of women, checking to make sure they are not men hiding," said Kenyan newspaper columnist Salim Lone, who grew up in a predominantly Somali suburb of Nairobi and said he often talks to displaced Somalis. "It's hard to meet a Somali in favor of the government, not because they all support the Islamic Courts, but because they're opposed to Ethiopia's presence."

A failed arms embargo
Following the collapse of Somalia's military government in 1992, the UN Security Council passed resolutions banning arms sales to the country and establishing a committee to monitor implementation of the embargo.

Various state and independent actors have violated the weapons prohibition, according to reports from the UN Monitoring Group on Somalia. The latest dossier, released in November 2006, detailed increasing activity "in terms of numbers of arms, frequency of delivery and sophistication of weapons."

The UN accused Ethiopian rival Eritrea of landing a large shipment of assault rifles and machine guns intercepted at the port of El Ma'an that were destined for the Islamic Court Union.

Trucks of ammunition also were reported going from Ethiopia, en route to Baidoa, and specifically contracted to deliver the cargo to TFG President Yusuf.

While agreeing transgressions persist, many Somali watchers have found faults with the UN report's claims, such as a link between the ICU and Hezbollah, and its overall credibility.

"It didn't mention the US breaking the embargo, which everyone knows has been and still is going on," said Lone, who served as director of the UN news division for six years. "It referred to all of these other armies coming into Somalia, but not a word about the Ethiopian troops already there."

Complicating the issue of arms networks in the country, international officials have accused Islamic militants there of collaborating with global terrorist networks. In January, the United States launched air strikes against al-Qaida operatives believed to be escaping with the remnants of the ICU.

"We have Islamic fundamentalists who harbor international terrorists," said UN representative Mohamed. Somalia was used as a staging ground, Mohamed said, for terrorist attacks against Kenya, including a 1998 bombing at the US Embassy in Nairobi.

Lone rejected the allegation that Somalis and the ICU are involved with terrorists and said the group was able to "create a relative environment of law and order" when it had control of the capitol and the surrounding areas.

As the TFG struggles to exert control over the divided city, violence has returned in force. John Holmes, the highest ranking UN official to visit Somalia since the 1990s, reported that violence displaced nearly 400,000 civilians, the majority of whom had yet to return as of April. Those who remain lack shelter, food, clean water and medical care, he said.

Forming political accord
Going forward, nearly all sides agree international support will be needed to forge a political solution and establish an effective arms embargo.

"The issue here is of power sharing between the clans. Hawiye -- Mogadishu's largest clan -- is divided, as it has been since the early 1990s" said Brynjulf Mugaas, an independent consultant to the TFG and a member of the Monitoring Group on Somalia from 2002 to 2003. "The clans need to feel secure and have a police force that they can trust."

Shinn agreed. "If the clan leaders are brought into the government, then they have a chance of succeeding," he said. "If this is a temporary cease-fire, then this is just temporary."

And he said he is not optimistic the peace will last.

"There are just so many arms. There are enough arms to keep the conflict going for another year or two," he said. "It basically requires the will of participants and or of countries to stop it, and the will is not there."

Mohamed wants the United Nations to provide an international peacekeeping force, as it has done in Liberia, the Congo and the Ivory Coast, to complement the African Union force, comprised primarily of Ugandans, currently operating in Somalia.

"We have no strong local revenues to be used for security," he said.

Lone acceded the international community should lead the reconciliation process but objected to the involvement of Ethiopia.

The issue is expected to arise at a national reconciliation conference scheduled in Mogadishu for mid-June.

-- By Josh Miller, Online NewsHour