The White House released an updated bird flu plan May 3 that details how the United States should react if the bird flu virus that has infected birds in 48 countries and humans in nine reaches the United States.

The plan predicts that 40 percent of America's workforce will stay home from work at the peak of a pandemic and 1.9 million Americans will die in the worst-case scenario.

To minimize the damage of an outbreak, the plan calls for closing schools and asks that businesses allow employees to stay home. It includes a checklist of 300 tasks for each federal government agency.

Quarantines and border closings will do little to stop the disease's spread, the plan states, and America will have to let the virus run its course.

Bird flu is still considered an animal disease and transmission to humans from birds is rare though experts fear it could mutate to spread from human to human and spark a global pandemic.

President Bush originally released a bird flu pandemic plan in November 2005 and asked Congress for $7.1 billion to fund it.

The updated plan stresses the need for businesses and schools to have bird flu response plans, and a large part of the government's response hinges on action at the state and local level.

State and local responses
The Department of Health and Human Services began educating municipal and state governments on how to strengthen their preparedness plans through a series of state summits. Additionally, the federal government is monitoring bird migration patterns and poultry farms for early signs that the virus has reached North America.

HHS also regularly updates its Web site www.pandemicflu.gov to answer the public's questions about the flu and government response.

Secretary of Health and Human Services Michael Leavitt has been touring the country outlining how his department will spend the $3.3 billion allocated to them by Congress and stressing the need for preparedness.

"We are in a race. We are in a race against a fast-moving virulent virus with the potential to cause an influenza pandemic. ... We are in a race against time and complacency," said Leavitt in the "Pandemic Planning Update" published by HHS. "It is only a matter of time before we discover H5N1 in America."

In spite of these efforts, an April 2006 Associated Press-Ipsos poll revealed that only half of Americans are confident that the government will be able to contain the virus and effectively protect its citizens.

The poll also shows two-thirds of those surveyed expect there to be an outbreak among the bird population in the United States, and one-third worried that a family member will become infected with the virus.

Planning for a pandemic
In a nationwide series of state summits, Leavitt is attempting to allay these fears and outline how HHS will use the funds provided by the federal government, citing five major objectives: monitoring the reach of the virus, developing vaccines, stockpiling anti-viral medication in case of an outbreak, coordinating local and federal epidemic plans and improving communication measures.

In order to ensure that the virus will be caught early enough to prevent an outbreak, the Food and Drug Administration, in conjunction with HHS, approved a laboratory test for birds that will allow samples to be diagnosed within four hours.

Government scientists are looking most closely at bird migratory patterns in the North Pacific for initial signs of the avian flu reaching the continent. The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service devised a $29 million surveillance program that will monitor over 100,000 birds -- nearly 20,000 in the Alaskan peninsula alone.

A significant aspect of the Alaska monitoring program involves the creation of 50 campgrounds reaching far out into the Aleutian Islands as an early warning system for the H5N1 virus.

"We're looking in all places, but we're looking most intently in the place we most expect to find it, Alaska," Rick Kearney, head of the program for the U.S. Geological Survey, told the Associated Press. Kearney also explained that any early detection of the virus appearing in Alaska would give poultry farmers and government scientists several weeks as warning.

Scientists also are focusing on monitoring the Pacific flyway, which stretches from the Canadian border to southern California. The possibility of infection via this migration pattern has worried poultry farmers in California, home of a $2.5 billion poultry industry.

If there is an outbreak of H5N1, the federal government is working with pharmaceutical companies to devise a vaccine for the virus by implementing an expedited approval process.

"This action illustrates FDA's high level of commitment and key role in preparing for influenza pandemic, which is a top priority for our nation," acting FDA Commissioner Dr. Andrew von Eschenbach told reporters.

The FDA has helped GlaxoSmithKline start human trials on an experimental vaccine that uses additives to boost the effectiveness of the immune system.

The viral strain, however, is expected to evolve, making it difficult to stockpile a vaccine for a virus whose composition has not yet been determined. Until the mass production of a vaccine is possible, the FDA is stockpiling the anti-viral drugs Tamiflu and Relenza.

Ideally, these drugs would prevent the spread and virulence of the virus. In March 2006, HHS purchased more than 14 million courses of Tamiflu, and the government hopes to have over 80 million courses by the end of 2008.

To help ensure that state governments are well-informed, Congress allocated $350 million for HHS to support the local governments in preparing for a possible outbreak. At each of the state summits, HHS officials organized quarantine procedures and locations and communication matrices, and worked to prepare the local governments for panic-induced situations.

The poultry industry
Since the initial outbreaks of the virus in Europe and Asia, the United States has banned the import of any poultry goods from any of the 30 countries affected by the bird flu.

Should the virus reach the United States, industry analysts are concerned that it will severely hurt the $29 billion poultry business that produces over 42 billion pounds of poultry each year, 14 percent of which is sent abroad.

In hopes of addressing these concerns, the Department of Agriculture's Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service is trying to restore confidence among foreign buyers that the virus will not spread throughout the entire poultry industry. The agency has placed restrictions on Canadian and French imports from areas that have suffered bird flu outbreaks and expects similar action if the virus reaches the United States.

"It's one of those situations where we need to treat others as we would want them to treat us, and we have done that," Ron DeHaven, head of the Animal and Plant Inspections Service, told the Associated Press.

In the event of a bird flu outbreak among U.S. chickens, the government plans on quarantining the infected farm and testing all birds within a 6-mile radius.

In 2002 and 2003, the highly contagious Newcastle disease killed more than 3.1 million birds. To avoid similar loses in the future, many bird farmers have enacted biosecurity measures to protect their own business interests.

For example, at one chicken egg farm in California, all trucks have to be bathed in ammonia and all workers must exchange their street clothes for sanitized pre-washed uniforms. Other farms have henhouses built to be impenetrable to wild birds, in hopes of preventing the spread of avian flu to their chickens.

Despite all these precautions, there is still a chance bird flu could surface in the United States. While attending a summit in California, Leavitt told reporters, "It is almost certain that a wild bird will find its way into the United States with H5N1 on board."

-- Compiled by Brian Wolly for the Online NewsHour