A subtle turning point occurred in Iraq in the fall of 2007 when security improved and violence abated to a point where grassroots reconciliation and community rebuilding efforts could take root.

Rear Adm. Gregory Smith, deputy spokesman for the Multi-National Corps-Iraq, reported in November that terrorist attacks were 55 percent lower than when the troop surge began in June 2007. Iraqi civilian deaths fell by 60 percent and Iraqi security forces deaths dropped 40 percent since the beginning of the troop increase, he said, though he noted that suicide attacks by the al-Qaida in Iraq group are continuing.

"The progress has been remarkable," said Michael O'Hanlon, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution. Helping contribute to the reduction in violence are the emergence of "awakening councils" -- Sunni fighters cooperating with U.S. counterinsurgency efforts in places such as al-Anbar province -- and improved patrolling by the U.S. military and Iraqi security forces in Baghdad, he said.

In addition, radical Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr's al-Mahdi Army, which had been battling coalition forces, announced a six-month cease-fire in August.

Not only were Iraqis able to hit one of their national reconciliation targets -- adopting a law allowing Baath Party members back into the government -- but local-level programs aimed at resolving differences and rebuilding neighborhoods began taking off as well.

"The continued improvement in the security situation has, among other things, resulted in a surge of outreach from PRTs (provincial reconstruction teams) and Iraqis and local leaders for assistance in conflict mitigation/reconciliation efforts aimed at trying to capture the momentum here and prevent a backslide," said Rusty Barber, chief of party in Baghdad for the U.S. Institute of Peace.

Mahmoudiya model
USIP's first major grassroots mediation effort was just south of Baghdad in Mahmoudiya, a one-time center of agriculture before the 2003 U.S.-led invasion. The turmoil following the ouster of Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein led to gang and sectarian violence and terrorist attacks that caused many in the community of 500,000 to leave, according to USIP.

But once the U.S. military and Iraqi security forces restored some stability to the region in mid-2007, USIP and the military were able to facilitate a dialogue between Mahmoudiya's mostly Shia political and military leaders and the area's Sunni sheiks. The Sunni sheiks traditionally held a major role in the community but had fled to Amman, Jordan, for their own safety.

After coaxing them back, USIP-trained Iraqi facilitators led the participants through a goal-setting process based on the premise of where they wanted to see the region in three years.

"It was quite intense. ... We focused on what they could do and work toward making happen," said Barber.

The result of a three-day conference in October was an agreement on 37 goals to improve security and services, from rebuilding roads and bridges to re-establishing the court system and developing a monitoring system for elections, he said.

USIP is using Mahmoudiya as a model for other parts of Iraq, including in Baiji, a major fuel-processing city in the north, in the midlands region and in areas of the South, Barber said.

Currently, USIP has 15 to 20 Iraqi facilitators but is working to expand that force to 100 -- representing different ethnic and religious groups, including Shia, Sunni, Kurd, Turkmen and Christians -- by the fall.

"There's a real sense of urgency right now because we do have a limited timeframe," Barber explained. During this period of relative calm, progress made through negotiations must be underpinned with job restoration or people will start to feel frustrated and things could fall apart, he said.

Conflict mitigation
Conflict mitigation programs also are sprouting up in Iraq. In October, the U.S. Agency for International Development announced it awarded a $22 million contract to Relief International of California and Columbia University's Center for International Conflict Resolution in New York to assess communities' conflicts and develop quick responses to them.

Relief International is setting up offices in each of Iraq's 18 governorates and using Columbia University's existing network of Iraqi academics to help Iraqis analyze their sources of conflict, designate people as peacekeepers and create educational and recreational activities for Iraqi youth.

While the groups are helping Iraqis with training, they don't want to be too directive, said Silja Paasilinna, program director at Relief International. "This is something that really has to come from the communities," she said. "What we want to do is help Iraqis create a future for themselves."

The United Nations Development Programme-Iraq also is working with academic institutions, local authorities, community representatives and nongovernmental organizations to help with local development issues and planning, according to Ali'a Al-Dalli, team leader in UNDP-Iraq for the Poverty and Human Development Unit.

"Local steering committees have been set up in Sulaimaniya, Hilla and the Marshlands governorates of Basra, Missan and Thi Qar," she said. "They include representatives from civil society, while universities have been commissioned to survey and assess development needs in these areas."

Joost Hiltermann, deputy Middle East program director at the International Crisis Group, sounded a cautionary note. Despite the relative calm in places such as Baghdad, many people have not returned to their homes and communities are more segregated than they've ever been.

"In those Baghdad neighborhoods that remain mixed, I doubt there will be reconciliation efforts, as sectarianism was not strong enough there to divide the communities," he said.

According to Hiltermann, Iraqis are new to sectarianism -- something that was introduced by political actors, including al-Qaida in Iraq, the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq and the al-Sadr movement. Those groups must reconcile or work out some kind of accommodation, which can only be done at the national level, he said.

National reconciliation
National reconciliation efforts are moving forward, albeit at a slow pace. One major mark of progress was the Iraqi parliament's passage of a law on Jan. 12 to let members of Saddam's Baath Party return to the now Shiite-led government or in some cases to receive their pensions. The law is part of a series of measures aimed at bringing the Sunni minority back into the political scene.

Other national efforts are taking longer, such as approval of an oil and gas revenue distribution law. Oil reserves are located mainly in the Shiite south and Kurdish north, so Sunni Arabs who live in areas of little oil reserves worry that they will be denied profits.

But in general, Iraq's headway on the national front and other more localized objectives, including sharing resources, hiring Sunni volunteers in security and other services, and establishing a fair legal system, prompted O'Hanlon to describe the situation as: "The glass is one-third full."

The key, he said, is for the United States to maintain pressure on Iraq and make continued assistance conditional on continued progress. Observers also must be patient, he added. "Despite the pressure from the media ... and from the political debate, don't expect immediate results."

-- By Larisa Epatko, Online NewsHour