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REGION: Middle East
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IN-DEPTH COVERAGE
Tracking Nuclear Proliferation
RESOURCES Posted: May 2, 2005     
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Strategy and Planning
The Bush administration's policy on nuclear weapons was outlined in the 2002 Nuclear Posture Review, a report commissioned by the president in response to a post-Cold War world and published following the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001.

Map of U.S.Though the report from the office of Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld came out in 2002, it presented a 20-year plan focused on phasing out larger weapons built during the Cold War and developing a new generation of modernized forces and an infrastructure designed to meet more modern nuclear threats.

These "modern" weapons, according to the Defense Department report, would be a response to the modern threat of "mobile" terrorists and states with increased access to weapons of mass destruction. Among the states named in the report: North Korea, Iraq, Iran, Syria, Libya and China.

This reorganization of the nuclear infrastructure already has inspired the upgrade of several of the country's weapons-making and testing facilities. Plans are currently underway to restore the Y-12 Plant in Tennessee, where nuclear components are manufactured; the Los Alamos National Laboratory in New Mexico, where plutonium used to fuse bombs is housed; and the Pantex Plant near Amarillo, Texas, used for dismantling existing weapons.

"[T]he technology base and production readiness infrastructures of both DOD and NNSA (National Nuclear Safety Administration) must be modernized so that the United States will be able to adjust to rapidly changing situations," the Posture Review said. "It is unlikely that a reduced version of the Cold War nuclear arsenal will be precisely the nuclear force that the United States will require in 2012 and beyond."

A key aspect of the government's plan to modernize is the research and development of smaller, strategic weapons designed to target underground sites where rouge nations or terrorists might be able to hide a nuclear weapon.

"Today's nuclear arsenal continues to reflect its Cold War origin, characterized by moderate delivery accuracy, limited earth penetrator capability, high-yield warheads, silo and sea-based ballistic missiles with multiple independent reentry vehicles, and limited retargeting capability," the report said.

"New capabilities must be developed to defeat emerging threats such as hard and deeply buried targets to find and attack mobile and relocatable targets, to defeat chemical or biological agents, and to improve accuracy and limit collateral damage."

Bunker buster research
Though Congress has been slow to approve financing for a full-scale upgrade and modernization of the country's nuclear weapons program, it has approved $15 million for the departments of Defense and Energy to research one such weapon, the Robust Nuclear Earth Penetrator, also known as the bunker buster.

The bunker buster would be a low-yield, strategic warhead that could potentially deliver a nuclear weapon to a precise, targeted area with little radioactive fallout. The new design on an old bomb would burrow 10 feet into the ground before detonating.

"The theory behind this was that there should not be anything a potential adversary could do that would put them out of reach of the United States," National Nuclear Safety Administration chief Linton Brooks told the Online NewsHour.

According to Brooks, development of the bunker buster has been halted due to lack of funding from Congress.

"Congress, at least for now, has concluded that it was not a good idea," Brooks said.

Supporters of the bunker buster's development argue that the ease of use and precision of such a weapon could serve as a deterrent to U.S. enemies.

"That's part of this argument by nuclear advocates," said Robert Norris, a senior analyst for the Natural Resources Defense Council. "We got stuck with these big old weapons; who's going to believe us. To better enhance the power of intimidation, I need a weapon they believe I might use against them and this will enhance the pressure on them."

Arms control advocates argue that such a weapon, if fiscally and scientifically feasible, could foster proliferation for the very same reasons the administration wants to build it to reduce proliferation.

"Maintaining and expanding the role of U.S. nuclear weapons not only violates accepted international norms of nonproliferation behavior, but it invites countermoves by former adversaries and would-be nuclear powers," Daryl Kimball, executive director of the Arms Control Association wrote in the group's December issue of Arms Control Today.

"The devastating power and collateral effects of the proposed new weapons also make it clear that their use or threat of use is no more credible, necessary, or justifiable than existing nuclear weapons."

Brooks, who oversees the country's military nuclear development, argues the bunker buster is not a new weapon but a redesign of an old one.

"We proposed the same bomb ... and put a new case on it so that it would penetrate a few feet into rock. It's not a new weapon," he said.

Brooks also said the Bush administration is not undertaking new weapons development.

"We have sought to do some research and development, primarily to look at safety and security and some have taken that as an indication that we're trying to develop new weapons. There is no development of a new nuclear weapon underway in the U.S. right now and as far as I know there are no plans for a new nuclear weapon."

Adhering to nonproliferation treaties
As the departments of Energy and Defense try to overcome funding pitfalls to move forward with plans to reinvigorate the country's nuclear weapons program, however, opponents say any move toward the design of new nuclear weapons would breach the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty signed by the United States in 1968.

  
  A minuteman nuclear missile stands ready for launch.  
U.S. Department of Defense

A minuteman nuclear missile stands ready for launch.
The treaty calls for global nuclear non-proliferation and disarmament and asks ratified countries to abstain from transferring or receiving nuclear weapons. Article 6 of the treaty also asks nuclear weapons states to disarm "in good faith."

"All of this, conflicts with Article 6 of the non-proliferation treaty which is a treaty we signed which theoretically says we should be working toward disarmament," Norris said. "All parties to the treaty should be working toward general and complete disarmament. It's in good faith. And there's no good faith here."

But international obligations aside, it may be the cost of building new weapons that remains the most difficult issue to overcome. Research and development of the bunker buster was expected to cost $484 million over a five-year period, according to a report from national defense specialist Jonathan Medalia to Congress in March 2004.

In its 2005 budget request, the Bush administration asked Congress to support a $4 million Department of Energy study of the weapons.

"People don't realize that we're getting back into the nuclear bomb business in a big way, and it's a very expensive business," Joseph Cirincione, director of the non-proliferation project at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, told the San Francisco Chronicle soon after the release of the Nuclear Posture Review.

Some members of Congress have worked to cut funding to President Bush's proposed projects.

In November 2004, Ohio Republican Rep. David Hobson, chairman of the House Appropriations Subcommittee on Energy and Water Development, helped eliminate an additional $27 million requested by President Bush to further develop the bunker buster, and $9 million to explore new weapons and build the facilities to make them.

"We cannot advocate for nuclear nonproliferation around the globe and pursue more useable nuclear weapons options at home," Hobson said in an August speech to a group gathered for a post-Cold War nuclear symposium sponsored by the Carnegie Endowment, according to The New York Times.

Weapons testing
Though the United States is in the process of researching upgraded weapons, the country has maintained a self-imposed suspension of nuclear testing since 1992. Although the United States is a signatory of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty, which calls for a moratorium on all nuclear testing worldwide, the U.S Senate refused to ratify it in 1999 and President Bush has not re-submitted the treaty for consideration. China has similarly signed, but not ratified the treaty. North Korea, India and Pakistan have not even signed the pact.

The Department of Defense has pointed to a need to keep open testing capabilities in order to ensure "the safety and reliability" of its nuclear weapons. The department also recommended a reduction in the time needed to test a nuclear weapon from two-three years to 18 months.

"While the United States is making every effort to maintain the stockpile without additional nuclear testing, this may not be possible for the indefinite future. ... [T]he DOD and DOE will reassess the need to resume nuclear testing and will make recommendations to the president," the department said.

And, said Brooks, "the president has made it clear that we have no plans to resume testing, we have no need to resume testing. But, if we discover a problem that can only be resolved through testing, we want to be able to have that capability."


-- By Kristina Nwazota, Online NewsHour

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