Less
than a week after he unveiled the government's new color-coded threat assessment
system, Homeland Security Director Tom Ridge -- who had only been on the job for
five months -- said he had already weathered criticism and quips for the seemingly
innocuous nature of a system addressing such a somber subject.
"I guess
you know you've arrived when you become the subject of political
cartoons," he told an Association
of Firefighters conference last March 18. "There was one
that was rather unique. As I was getting prepared to announce
the level of threat, they had me dipping into a bag of M&M's
to determine the color."
"I
assure you," Ridge said. "while there is some art to the threat advisory
system, there's a little bit more science than that." The
color-coded Homeland Security Advisory System rates the country's threat level
in one of five stages: Low, signifying a low risk of terrorist attacks; Guarded,
marking a general risk; Elevated, meaning a significant risk of a terrorist strike;
High, signifying a high risk; and Severe, declared when the government determines
a severe risk of a terrorist attack. According to Homeland Security Director Tom
Ridge, U.S. officials developed the system to help law enforcement officials quantify
the often-vague threat intelligence information they receive. The
White House recommends different responses for federal agencies for each of threat
level, ranging from ensuring training in antiterrorism measures continues under
the Low level to closing public facilities and constraining transportation systems
during a Severe alert.
Changing
the Threat Level When the system was inaugurated in March
2002, the president put Attorney General John Ashcroft in charge of recommending
changes to the national threat level on the five-tiered system in consultation
with Ridge's homeland security office. However,
as the new Department of Homeland Security develops and organizes, administration
of the advisory system will become the duty of the Under Secretary for Information
Analysis and Infrastructure Protection, according to the White House's reorganization
plan submitted in November. The department will administer the system and assume
responsibility for issuing public alerts when necessary. According
to the president's directive establishing the advisory system issued last March,
a change in threat level comes after officials review FBI, CIA and other intelligence
data to determine whether the threat is credible, whether the information is corroborated,
the degree to which the intelligence is specific or imminent and the severity
of the potential consequences. From
there, the president's directive says, threat information can either be relayed
throughout the country or to specific local assessment teams, since the system
allows for different parts of the country to be placed on different stages of
alert. The national
alert level has only been raised once from the Elevated or yellow stage. Ridge
and Ashcroft increased the level to High, or orange, on Sept. 10, 2002 -- just
ahead of the first anniversary of the terrorist attacks on New York and Washington. According
to Ashcroft, the threat level change came after conferring with the Homeland Security
Council -- composed of Cabinet members and top White House advisers -- and with
the president's approval. Their
recommendation to increase the threat level followed the discovery of specific
information that al-Qaida operatives may have been planning an attack on U.S.
interests to coincide with the Sept. 11 anniversary. Ashcroft
said that the threat level was not increased to its highest level, Severe, because
intelligence pointed to an attack overseas. According to the attorney general,
a move to the highest threat level "would have been triggered by specific
credible intelligence and analysis pointing toward an imminent attack on the United
States homeland." After
the Sept. 11 anniversary passed without an attack and the threat level was returned
to Elevated on Sept. 24, Ridge wrote in a USA Today op-ed that the brief alert
level hike proved the advisory system works. "This
is exactly what was envisioned when the system was launched in March," Ridge
wrote. "We sought to communicate terrorist threats to the public in a clear
and understandable way. And we coupled the threat levels with protective measures
that can be tailored to the specific needs of a community, a business or even
a family. It's a system made to be adapted, not just adopted." He
told a December 2002 gathering of employees soon to become part of the Homeland
Security Department, for example, that private companies should plan their own
safety precautions around the terror alert system. He
said that, while the advisory system specifies what government agencies should
do at different alert levels, "we want companies to do the same thing...
It's not just the level of threat; what do we do as a country based on our assessment
of the threat to protect ourselves."
Praise & Criticism
The advisory system has not been without its critics, though. Some have argued
the Bush administration has not fully defined the threshold for a change to the
threat level. "Ridge's
warning lights are meant to reflect the terrorist threat, but instead they are
cause for confusion and a staple joke on late-night television," writer John
Miller said in a June 2002 edition of The National Review. "People don't
need a set of lights with vague significance; they need useful information and
practical advice." After
the FBI sent a warning to police in November about a possible "spectacular"
al-Qaida attack planned against the U.S. and its interests – a warning that
did not spark a threat level boost – The New York Times asked how Americans
could be asked to prepare against a terrorist strike without more precise information. "The
only thing warnings this vague are good for is providing political cover in case
of disaster," the Times wrote in a Nov. 17 editorial. "They offer no
specific information about the location, timing or method of attack, and are all
but useless tot he average citizen, or even to local law enforcement officers." Others
said it is more appropriate for such specific warnings to come from local or state
governments rather than the federal advisory system. "Nobody
knows what the color levels mean. That's okay, they're declaring a level for the
entire country. But the further down you drill, the more specific you need to
become." Washington, D.C. Deputy Mayor for Public Safety Margret Nedelkoff
Kellems told The Washington Post in November. Despite
the criticism, Ridge says state and local law enforcement officials are pleased
with the system because it allows agencies to work off of the same page. "[The
advisory system] was embraced by the 50-plus homeland security advisers because
we all think we need a standard vocabulary that says to the country what level
of risk we're at," Ridge said in May. "I think the system is working
very well."
-- Compiled by Greg Barber for the Online NewsHour
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