Shields and Brooks Consider the Coming Obama Administration, Future of GOP

MARK SHIELDS: Well, the only place I'd quarrel with, with Pam is that it's a very simple process if you do it at this point. Universal health care is never going to be an easy process.

I do think that, quite bluntly, that Obama is weighing what David laid out, and that is, do you go for the big enchilada right now or do you try and do it incrementally? And you can be sure they're going to do - in a regulatory sense - they're going to be quite active because they can do that without any price tag.

But I think the test of Obama in 2012 and his administration, that voters will apply, as well as Democrats in 2010, is, is the economy better? Are there jobs? Is it growing? Is there a sense of optimism and confidence?

And I think that it poses a psychological and a political task and challenge that awaits him. And he's - this will test his eloquence and his ability to bring people along with him. I think even President Bush's greatest admirers would acknowledge that he was not a persuasive public leader; he did not use the bully pulpit well and I think this will be the test of Obama very early in his administration, whether in fact he can sustain that confidence and optimism right now that I think characterizes the attitude of the nation.

JUDY WOODRUFF: So, to both of you, just a quick follow-up. The argument that some make that, like Franklin Roosevelt, and, you know, coming in office as he did in the time of the Great Depression and moving dramatically across several fronts, you're saying this isn't like that?

DAVID BROOKS: Well, I think it's not. The people on the other side think it is, but I would say there are a couple of differences: One, there was a 27-percent unemployment rate when FDR came in; I think there was 19-percent even seven years into his rule. So economic times were much worse.

Second, there were legitimate people calling for FDR to appoint himself dictator and that word had not yet acquired a negative connotation. People wanted a strong dictator and there was tremendous trust in government. And those things don't apply. People do not have the same trust in government. The country has not moved in the direction where it suddenly wants a dictator or a big-government solution, I don't think.

I think, as Bill Galston of the Brookings Institution said, you've got to build that trust step by step. And then just on the legislative grounds, the energy bill, which is, I think, upper-most in Obama's mind right now after the stimulus is phenomenally complicated. Passing a cap-and-trade bill, even with 100 Democratic Senators would be very hard because you're raising prices on energy.

And then the healthcare bill - how do you design a healthcare plan without wrecking what's left of the employer-based system? These strike me as incredibly difficult, just programmatic tasks.

JUDY WOODRUFF: Steve from Urbana, Illinois, says President-elect Obama has stated that he will reach across the aisle in his administration. Which Republicans and Independents can we expect to see in the Cabinet? And I would just - I'm going to combine a question from Chris in San Diego, who asks, "Is John McCain likely to receive a Cabinet appointment?"

MARK SHIELDS: I do not know if John McCain is likely. I doubt it, frankly, but I do believe that this is a significant and important promise that Obama made. I think there were two cornerstones of the Obama candidacy that gave the uniqueness beyond his personal biography: That was that he was the anti-war candidate in an anti-war party when this whole fight, struggle began back in 2007, the end of 2006. That was the first.

The second that distinguished him was that he was the person who pledged a commitment to post-partisan politics. I think he has to redeem both promises. And the ones that are most often mentioned, and I don't pretend to any insights into Senator Obama, President-elect Obama's mind at this point, but our - Dick Lugar, the very respected former chairman of the Foreign Relations Committee, the senior senator from Indiana, a Republican, an authentic Republican; Colin Powell has been mentioned, I've heard now for three different Cabinet positions; and so has Chuck Hagel been mentioned, the former, now retiring senator from Nebraska.

But I think this is going to be a real test of the sincerity and authenticity of the Obama campaign, whether in fact he does honor this pledge.

DAVID BROOKS: I guess I agree. I have heard all of those names. Ray LaHood would be another one. I would like to see him take some chances with the actual advisors. Many of the people that are mentioned are very senior figures, would be Cabinet secretaries.

But there are people who are sort of the policy advisors who are at the undersecretary or deputy secretary level who often are more involved in policy-making. And I'm thinking of people like Chester Finn or Diane Ravich who are conservative but moderate education experts. There's a guy named Stuart Butler at the Heritage Foundation who is a very experienced healthcare expert.

There are people like that who I'd like to see sort of brought in more at the policy-making levels, and maybe in less public roles. But it just would broaden the discussions. And you know, wouldn't necessarily dominate policy-making but would be part of the conversation. And they are very honest brokers. There are a lot of people like that.

JUDY WOODRUFF: David, I'm going to use this to segue to there are a number of questions we received about the future of the Republican Party. Ryan in New Haven, Connecticut, says, "What is the future of the Republican Party? How have different power groupings in the party interpreted the elections? Who has the most clout?"

DAVID BROOKS: Well, I think it's like the future of the Phoenicians or the Babylonians. It's a bright future. No, I'm exaggerating a little. It has a long way to go. You know, I think there are essentially two camps that have broken out.

The one camp that I call the "restorationist" camp, they think the Republican Party went astray by abandoning the true creed, that George Bush was a big-government conservative and really discredited and strayed from conservatism. And John McCain was a moderate and tried to wage a moderate campaign. And his defeat represents the deaths of moderate conservatives.

This camp wants to move back to the more conservative ideas - tax cuts, restrict immigration, cut the size of government, social issues, rally behind Sarah Palin. And that is one camp.

The other camp is the reformist camp that says, you know, Ronald Reagan was great for his day. But you've got to move on. You've got to modernize. You can't rely on tax cuts as your only domestic policy agenda. You have to pay attention to young people and middle-class economic anxieties.

And I'm obviously in the second reformist camp. But my strong feeling is the restorationist camp, the first camp, is going to win this power struggle, simply because they have all the institutions - all the think tanks, all the activist groups, all the grassroots organizations, all of talk radio basically is in that camp. And they just have institutions.

And what's left of moderate Republicanism? There are no big donors; there are no institutions; there are no magazines. And so, I think there's going to be a period where the party actually moves right, loses an election or two, and then finally moves to the center.

JUDY WOODRUFF: Mark, do you want to weigh in? There's a connected question I can tack on here, Mark, as I turn to you. This is from Chris in Houston. He says, "The college-educated, under-30 electorate voted in favor of Obama. If the Republican Party is to have a meaningful future, it will have to find a way to recapture this segment of the electorate as they age into leaders. How should they do this? Is there hope that Republicans will stand for fiscal conservatism and an energetic, intelligent, yet limited government without all the moralizing?"

MARK SHIELDS: Well, I think as you look at the electoral map, I mean, I think John - about two out of three of John McCain's electoral votes came from the states of the old South. And that is the base of the party. Now, do you assume that base? Do you move away from that base? Do you test your base?

Richard Nixon, who knew something about presidential politics, says every successful politician is testing his base or her base at every moment in their political career, trying to expand it, trying to ask it to do things that it may be uncomfortable doing while acknowledging its importance.

And I think this is what is first going to confront the Republicans. I mean, the presidential campaign of 2012 has already begun. We can be sure of that. And whether it's Mitt Romney or Mike Huckabee or Bobby Jindal, the governor of Louisiana, Governor Palin of Alaska or whoever, there is a whole host of people ready to make the race. And they will, to some degree, define the party.

But between now and then, I think the more conservative wing of the party will be strengthened. It will be strengthened both in the Congress and because of the financial base as well. And the Republican Party in the House now is a far more Southern party than it has been in the past in its definition and its profile. It's far less, obviously, Northeastern or even Upper Midwest.

So unless you have anything to add to that, I want to turn to a question from - let's see - this is Jenny in Dayton, Ohio. And she asks, "It's my feeling the biggest losers in this election were the women, both Hillary Clinton and Sarah Palin. It seemed Hillary was abandoned by her own party and Sarah Palin and family was beat up by a hateful and disgraceful media. In my generation, I've not seen women at their high level of public service receive such mistreatment. Number one, what's you perspective on how you think they were treated? And two, do you think either one of them will ever rise above this election to pursue higher levels of office?" Mark?

MARK SHIELDS: You know, I always felt that the treatment of Senator Clinton was not nearly as negative, hostile as many of her most ardent supporters believed. Two factors in this race - one was that she was the favorite and the frontrunner going in, and the press does have a bias. We are - the late Mary McGrory put it very well: "You scratch a political reporter and you find a fight promoter."

We don't want to see the established order go where the frontrunner just moseys onto the nomination at any time, whoever that frontrunner is. We want to find out who that challenger, that David taking on the Goliath, whoever it is. And Obama did qualify for that role. And plus, it was a fascinating story, as the first authentic African-American running against the first serious woman candidate for president.

And I think there's no question that many in the press showed a tilt toward Obama early on. And I think it changed, quite honestly, with the Saturday Night Live skit where the press was portrayed, caricatured in a debate situation of asking Senator Clinton difficult questions and then asking the Obama figure whether he is happy, whether he was comfortable, whether they could get him a pillow, something to drink.

I think there was a bout of introspection after that. And I do think that was the - I think that really did even up the coverage. I think then Senator Clinton became a more interesting narrative. She bounced back and fought back and, I thought, became a better candidate.

As far as Senator Palin - Governor Palin was concerned, you know, she - probably the worst decision that was made in the whole campaign in her behalf was agreeing with CBS News that the interviews would be parceled out one a night over a week's period. And they were just so devastating. People did like Sarah Palin. They still did like Sarah Palin on Election Day. They just really questioned whether she was qualified to be president. And they had grave doubts about that by Election Day. I don't think that was gender-driven.

JUDY WOODRUFF: David, what about this question of women?

DAVID BROOKS: Well, I would say, I don't think either one of these two women are going anywhere. I think Senator Clinton is going to be a very prominent senator, especially on healthcare matters. And Governor Palin is probably going to be running for president.

So you know, I think they both took some hard knocks in the press. But I think almost everybody who runs for president takes some very hard knocks. My main view is that our main bias in the press is to prove how much smarter we are than everybody else, so we tend to attack other people - everybody except Barack Obama, of course.

So I thought they took some hard knocks. But you know, they both survived it in their way, I think, especially Senator Clinton.

And I genuinely do not think her gender was the determining factor in her defeat and I don't think gender was a determining factor in the public view of Sarah Palin. It was other things.

JUDY WOODRUFF: David, I was going to bring you this follow-up question from Jim in Hightstown, New Jersey. "Do you think Sarah Palin has a political future outside of Alaska?" It sounds like you think she might or she does.

DAVID BROOKS: She's got a lot of fans. There are a lot of people who - a lot of Republicans who like her better than John McCain. It's a question of how she develops and grows. I mean, there are a lot of people who think she's a very talented - she's obviously a very talented political performer.

The question is does she have the innate interest in politics and government and policy to really deepen into a very persuasive performer that people want to trust with high office. I don't think she's there yet. But you know, she's smart. So maybe she can get there. But it's really up to her.

Does she really want to deepen herself so she has some of the depth that - you know, Barack Obama is not that experienced. But you felt pretty confident that on most policy issues, whether you agreed with him or not, he did know what he was talking about.

JUDY WOODRUFF: Mark, last question . . .

MARK SHIELDS: Just one thing on Sarah Palin. I think the question of her survival in the press corps will be determined in large part by what her original sponsors in the press corps.

I mean, there was really the conservative press were the ones who found her, discovered her, promoted her. Good friend - David's former colleague - my friend, Fred Barnes at the Weekly Standard, Bill Kristol of the National Review, they really promoted her and put her on sort of the national radar. And I don't know whether in fact they feel let down or whether they still feel that she is a major national player.

And Judy, I'd just point out one problem she has. If she does appoint herself - assuming that Senator Stevens' career in the Senate is terminal - to that position or does win that position even in an election, she is in far better shape, in my judgment, than being governor of Alaska, where logistically it is all but impossible to get back to the lower 48 and to campaign in places like Iowa and New Hampshire, which, as we learned in 2008 are still critically important to being nominated.

JUDY WOODRUFF: All right, very quickly, one last question for both of you. And Mark, I'll start with you and then turn to David. This is from C. Warren in Quincy, Illinois. "Down here at ground level, in west-central Illinois, the mood of those who felt a loss in this election is one of depression and expectation of the worst. What will it take for some who voted for McCain to get past the 'gloom and doom' created by believing their own propaganda?" He says, "More seriously, how can this nation avoid the dangerous potential fallout from hate and suspicions, which has been so actively fed?" Mark and then David.

MARK SHIELDS: Well, I mean, I really am hopeful, given almost the universal reaction I've had from friends, colleagues who are quite conservative Republican who are quite upbeat about the prospects of the Obama presidency. I think he has an advantage. Give George W. Bush great credit for the transition that he has organized. And he's making every effort to be sure that it works. And for that, he does deserve credit.

But there is going to be an enormous sense of relief that he's no longer the president. And I think it cuts across party lines. And I think there is hope. I mean, those pockets of hate are still there.

In spite of Obama's improvement among white men in the first question, in a number of southern states, he got nine percent of the white male vote. And so, there is a resistance. And there are problems. And listen, he won over an awful lot of people that had never met him before. Don't underestimate his ability to do so as president. He's a rather captivating and compelling public figure.

JUDY WOODRUFF: David.

DAVID BROOKS: I'd only add that it's his burden now. It's his - when you get power, you get this burden of leadership. And he's going to have to go out of his way to live up to the post-partisan rhetoric. And that will involve calling Republicans to the White House, having real meetings with them. Maybe even if they say nasty things, still calling them back and having them back.

You know, if he believes what he says, he'll do all that. And that will go a long way to changing the culture.

JUDY WOODRUFF: Well, thank you both, Mark and David, for joining us. And we want to thank all of our online visitors for submitting these excellent questions. Until next time, thanks for listening. I'm Judy Woodruff.