The Year Ahead: The Next Crisis

BY Business Desk  December 14, 2009 at 2:26 PM EDT

trader at the NYSE; Spencer Platt/Getty Images

Paul Solman: As the end of a tumultuous economic year approaches, we’ve asked a number of economists to weigh in on the year ahead. We’ll be featuring their responses here all week.

The responses to today’s questionWhat’s the likeliest crisis of 2010? – are joltingly plausible. Indeed, the Greek debt crisis mentioned by both Kenneth Rogoff and Simon Johnson is already well underway. Dubai appears to have been a near miss.

But most sobering of all, to me at least, is David Smick’s warning about China. I’ve been referring to pessimists about the Chinese economy — the so-called “China bears” — as The Pandas. In that spirit, Smick’s remarks suggest the term Panda-monium. Thank goodness for Barabesh’s consensus forecast, which is none too rosy. But we hope he’s right.

You can read responses from Nariman Behravesh, Simon Johnson, Kenneth Rogoff, and David Smick here.