The Year Ahead: The Next Crisis
Paul Solman: As the end of a tumultuous economic year approaches, we’ve asked a number of economists to weigh in on the year ahead. We’ll be featuring their responses here all week.
The responses to today’s question – What’s the likeliest crisis of 2010? – are joltingly plausible. Indeed, the Greek debt crisis mentioned by both Kenneth Rogoff and Simon Johnson is already well underway. Dubai appears to have been a near miss.
But most sobering of all, to me at least, is David Smick’s warning about China. I’ve been referring to pessimists about the Chinese economy — the so-called “China bears” — as The Pandas. In that spirit, Smick’s remarks suggest the term Panda-monium. Thank goodness for Barabesh’s consensus forecast, which is none too rosy. But we hope he’s right.