| In
the wake of Hurricane Isabel's powerful winds and storms, thousands
of East Coast residents continue to assess the full impact of
the storm, which raced across the mid-Atlantic and up the Eastern
seaboard in late September.
A week after
the Category 2 storm made its initial landfall in North Carolina
on Sept. 18, thousands remained without electricity while others
attempted to repair waterlogged homes, their belongings all but
destroyed.
"It was
no Fran or Floyd, but for the folks who have trees in their living
rooms, that's little comfort," North Carolina emergency management
spokesman Mark Van Sciver told Reuters, referring to powerful
hurricanes in the 1990s that caused similar damage.
In all, Isabel
knocked out power to more than 3.5 million people, a condition
that affected water supplies, snarled traffic and shut down schools
and businesses for days in North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland,
Delaware, Pennsylvania, West Virginia and Washington, D.C.
Like other
hurricanes and organized storm systems, Isabel was tracked using
satellite and radar technology from the very beginning of its
formation.
It took shape
in early September as a tropical storm, some 1,400 miles east
of the Leeward Islands heading toward the Caribbean.
When the storm
gained in intensity and produced maximum sustained winds over
80 mph, weather officials at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration (NOAA) officially classified it as a hurricane.
Numerous branches
of NOAA's weather watchers, including the National Hurricane Center
and the National Weather Service, track hurricanes and issue public
advisories at different stages of the storm's development as it
moves across the ocean toward land.
Isabel continued
to gain strength, size and speed, reaching the maximum Category
5 classification on the Saffir-Simpson scale at its peak over
the Atlantic, measuring sustained  wind
speeds upwards of 160 mph.
A hurricane's
intensity and destructive power is largely judged by its wind
speed, temperature, barometric pressure and other valuable data
collected in the storm-chasing, or "hurricane hunter"
flights of both NOAA and the Air Force Reserve.
The planes
used for these flights hold scores of instruments and computers
as well as teams of engineers and meteorologists who collect key
data by flying in and around a storm. This information is then
used to create computer models of a storm's potential path.
In the case
of Hurricane Isabel, the National Hurricane Center issued a five-day
forecast on Sept. 13, predicting the storm would hit the Cape
Hatteras vicinity by Sept. 18.
While subsequent
computer models of the storm's possible path showed the potential
for a wide area of impact stretching as far north as New Jersey,
the forecast was remarkably accurate.
"I am
really concerned that people will expect us to do this well every
time,'' National Hurricane Center Director Max Mayfield told the
Virginian Pilot. "We've always been about telling the truth,
and we will not do this well on every storm. That's not going
to happen.''
Even with
the best computer model, some storms can increase or decrease
sharply in intensity with little warning.
"We've
got a way to go with intensity forecasting," Mayfield told
the newspaper.
Guided by
extended hurricane center forecasts, officials ordered widespread
evacuations along the North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland and Delaware
coasts ahead of Isabel's landfall.
Despite the
evacuation warnings, some long-time residents and storm watchers
in Isabel's path chose to remain in their homes, prompting police
in Virginia Beach to suggest they write their names on their arms
so they could be identified if injured or killed.
Aside from
the heavy winds and rain expected, another key concern was that
of the "wall" of water expected to rush through the
region's waterways, a process known as storm surge which is brought
about by the storm's high winds and low pressure.
"The
simplest way to understand this [storm surge] is if you're 6 feet
tall and you have 7 to 11 feet of storm surge, you have a problem,"
Mayfield told the NewsHour on Sept. 17, the eve of the storm's
landfall.
"So no
matter how well-built your house is, if you are on the Outer Banks
of North Carolina, or in these areas, even the sand side, the
sound, they could have very high values of storm surge in these
areas, and even that greater Hampton Roads area there, we're really
concerned about that if they do get the 4 to 8 feet of storm surge
in that area," said Mayfield.
 Storm
surge proved a major factor in Isabel's impact even after the
storm's initial winds and rain had passed, with significant flooding
reported from the narrow Outer Bank islands to parts of the Virginia
suburbs lining the Potomac River near the nation's capital.
As forecasters
predicted, homes and businesses in the fragile coastal areas of
North Carolina's Outer Banks and southern Virginia were particularly
hard hit by the storm.
"All
the towns along the coast have lost houses or hotels. … It
will be months before we get back to normal, it will be next summer,"
said Renee Cahoon, a commissioner for Dare County in North Carolina,
on Sept. 19.
Isabel has
been blamed for over 30 deaths in six states and the nation's
capital. Some 19 deaths in Virginia alone were blamed on the storm
and included fatalities resulting from carbon monoxide poisoning
from electricity generators improperly operated inside homes.
Three utility
workers were electrocuted trying to restore power, one in North
Carolina and two in Maryland.
Federal assistance,
much of it coordinated through the Federal Emergency Management
Agency (FEMA) and the Department of Homeland Security, was quickly
granted to North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, West
Virginia and Washington, D.C., in the hurricane's wake.
As of Sept.
25, the Red Cross was operating 25 shelters in 10 states with
1,900 volunteers assisting hurricane victims.
Isabel was
the ninth tropical storm or hurricane of the Atlantic season,
which runs from June 1 to Nov. 30.
--
By Maureen Hoch, Online NewsHour
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