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| POLITICAL WRAP | |
 December 1, 2000  |
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Wall Street Journal columnist Paul Gigot and Boston Globe columnist Tom Oliphant analyze the week's news in politics.
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TERENCE SMITH: And tonight it's Gigot and Oliphant-- that's Wall Street Journal columnist Paul Gigot, and Boston Globe columnist Tom Oliphant, filling in for Mark Shields. Gentlemen, welcome to you both. Our betters have just finished parsing the legal aspects. Let's get down to the politics. Tom Oliphant, what has Vice President Gore got riding on the decision, the outcome of the Supreme Court argument? |
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| The U.S. Supreme Court case | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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TOM OLIPHANT: My guess, Terry, is a lot less than they did a week ago when the Supreme Court agreed to hear the case. I think the facts on the ground politically and legally in the environment of Florida are quite different than they were a week ago. You've had this certification ceremony for the third count, whatever it is there, the documents sent up here to Washington. You've had the beginning of the contest phase of the case in Florida -- a number of developments that as some of our scholar colleagues have just noted may make the Supreme Court's determination a little less important than it might have seemed a week ago. He could lose big, it just doesn't seem very likely.
PAUL GIGOT: I think the stakes may be higher. I think he is right about the law of it. But the political, the psychological stakes may be higher because if Al Gore does lose, even if it's just 5-4, the question becomes what's the effect on his party? And one of the reasons he has been able to sustain this campaign is because this party stayed quite loyal to him. Will this decision, a defeat in the Supreme Court and now a month having passed, affect them psychologically and say, you know what -- we're going to start to break, and particularly some of the Democrats from states that George Bush won. Montana, some of the south, middle America, will they begin to say look, it's time to wrap it up? I don't know the answer to that. But the Supreme Court and its credibility could have that effect. TOM OLIPHANT: I think it is an answerable question at this point because
after all Vice President Gore, unlike Governor Bush, has looked the
abyss... looked into abyss twice already in this process. Once on Election
Night when he conceded on the telephone, and once the night the Florida
Supreme Court ruled when he was prepared to begin folding his tent had
the decision gone against him. TERENCE SMITH: And so? TOM OLIPHANT: And so having looked defeat in the eyes before he would be fully prepared to, again. It is just on the basis of this argument and the changed political and legal facts on the ground, doesn't seem very likely that the Supreme Court would be that definitive. PAUL GIGOT: I don't see any lack of determination on the Gore camp, though. TERENCE SMITH: You think they will keep going? PAUL GIGOT: I do. Every indication that I get is that they would still say that this is a separate legal question. We'll pursue our contest. The psychological impact less on Gore who seems frankly to take this as far as he possibly can and on other Democrats. TERENCE SMITH: And is it a given that if in fact Governor Bush comes out on the short end of this that he will continue?
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| The Leon County case in Florida | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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TERENCE SMITH: Let's take those one at a time. Tom, there were decisions late today in Florida courts that went against Vice President Gore.
TERENCE SMITH: Right. And what would you expect from the Bush camp now in the coming days? PAUL GIGOT: Well, I think they're hoping they win in the Supreme Court and the Democrats break and they can wrap it up this way. Or the Florida court will stop and rule against Vice President Gore and they can... the electors can be sent up and they can win that. My reporting suggests they are determined though, if they lose both of those, to still then play the legislative option. TERENCE SMITH: Well, you mentioned that earlier. What about that? We expect a special session of the Florida legislature this coming week.
TOM OLIPHANT: I've noticed in my own checking today in Tallahassee, that there are some cautionary lights being flashed on the Republican side of this equation. I think there is some daylight still between the position of the state senate and the lower house. The president of the state senate, a fellow named John McKay said he wants to take this stuff home with him and think about it and read about it over the weekend. He is a little more cautious than his counterpart in the House. Secondly, Governor Jeb Bush's rhetoric has changed a little bit today. He is noting that the contests are still going on and they could be resolved before... there is an indication here why put-- why anger the Florida judicial system if it is about to give you the presidency? Why do that? Perhaps you don't need to act this week. There is a little more caution tonight than there was last night. TERENCE SMITH: Might that persuade them to hold off? PAUL GIGOT: Well, I think there is caution in the sense that they feel, look, we don't want to antagonize and we don't want to play a card if we don't have to do it because we understand this is going to be an even bloodier fight than it has been so far. But if it comes to that, they believe that the legislature exercising its authority is no more of a problem legally than the courts exceeding its authority. TERENCE SMITH: Well, it's history making and we're history now. So thanks, both. |
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TERENCE
SMITH: All right. Paul, do you agree with that, I mean, a loss, a big
loss as Tom is talking about? 
The
situation Paul is talking about, I think, would have to involve an overturning
of the Florida Supreme Court's decision -- the effect of overturning
it. In that case, from what I can gather from the Vice President's most
senior advisors, that would effectively knock the political legs out
from under the contest he is trying to make in Florida. And knowing
the Vice President to the extent that I do, I really can't imagine him
continuing in the face of that. He's already said that he would "respect
any judicial opinions," and I think -- unlike Governor Bush --
he is not prepared to get around obstacles that the courts put in front
of him. He has no Florida legislature to go to. He has no U.S. Congress
to go to regardless of what courts do. 
PAUL
GIGOT: I think so because he is still... and on two fronts. The Vice
President, even if he wins this case, he still has a lot of hurdles
to go. Number one, he has to win in a Florida court to open up a new
be cache of dimpled ballots somewhere, or else get the ballots thrown
out in the other county, Seminole County, on the technicality. Then
he has to find the votes to put him in the lead and then he has to somehow
win the battle of public opinion to block the Republican legislature
in Florida from going ahead and challenging, which they seem determined
right now to do. So I think this is going to go on. 
TOM
OLIPHANT: Yes, they did. I think they also have the effect however of
clearing away the underbrush so that the circuit court in Leon County,
Tallahassee, can focus on the key question which is (a) Gore's contest
as it involves Miami-Dade County and Palm Beach County, and (b) these
suits that were brought by Gore supporters that some Republicans are
starting to become a little more concerned about in the last 24 hours
involving absentee ballot application handling in the counties of Seminole
and Martin near Orlando. So these decisions went against Gore. They're
procedural, however. The big game is tomorrow in circuit court in Tallahassee.