POLITICAL WRAP

December 24, 1999
		Syndicated columnist Mark Shields and Weekly Standard senior editor David Brooks discuss the unexpected success of Bill Bradley and John McCain.

Special Emphasis Debating the Election 2000 agenda Dec. 22, 1999: One-on-One with Al Gore. Dec. 20, 1999: One-on-One with Alan Keyes Dec. 17, 1999: One-on-One with Sen. Orrin Hatch Dec. 10, 1999: A snapshot look at the Bush and McCain campaigns Dec. 7, 1999: A Republican debate in Arizona Nov. 24, 1999: Gary Bauer talks one-on-one Nov. 18, 1999: A Steve Forbes campaign snapshot Nov. 11, 1999: A George Bush campaign snapshot Nov. 4, 1999: A Gary Bauer campaign snapshot Oct. 29, 1999: A Republican town meeting in New Hampshire Oct. 28, 1999: Bradley and Gore debate in New Hampshire Oct. 22, 1999: An interview with Bill Bradley Oct. 20, 1999: Elizabeth Dole quits the Republican race Oct. 15, 1999: One-on-one with John McCain August 1999 The NewsHour's coverage of the Iowa Straw Poll June 17, 1999: A look at Al Gore's campaign Browse the NewsHour's coverage of the media and politics and campaigns. Browse past Political Wraps	JIM LEHRER: And that brings us to some Friday night analysis of the Presidential campaign and other matters political from Shields and Brooks, syndicated columnist Mark Shields and the Weekly Standard's senior editor, David Brooks, who is substituting tonight for Paul Gigot. Mark, the two presidential nomination races, where does the Republican race stand now as we speak and we're about to go into January and the real thing actually begins? MARK SHIELDS: The end of what Arthur Hadley called the invisible primary, the first year before the voting begins. Jim, I'd have to say that George W. Bush, in the press he's gone from wire to wire from -- a year ago he's been at 52/53 percent in every match up against the Democrats against Al Gore consistently twelve or thirteen points ahead, all the way through, he's led his own field. The surprise of course is that it's John McCain. It wasn't Pat Buchanan who won the New Hampshire, Dan Quayle, the vice president, the wife of the last presidential nominee. It's John McCain, the first time candidate out of Arizona who's the only one that's given - some eight or nine points ahead - according to the most recent surveys in New Hampshire. JIM LEHRER: Generally speaking, David, would you say Bush is still the one to win? DAVID BROOKS: You'd have to put your money on him, but McCain really is moving. He's eight or nine points ahead of New Hampshire, and the thing that's happened recently is in South Carolina, which is the next state, he's showing real movement, again not likely to win but increasingly likely, and in Michigan, which is the next big one, there was always this theory of the Bush firewall where they'd stop McCain. Well, the firewall keeps moving back and back and back, Michigan, Virginia, and the weird thing about the Bush campaign is they don't know how to beat McCain; they expected the attack to come from the right, from Steve Forbes. How do you beat a Republican who's running on campaign finance reform? There's been no such creature before, and they really don't know how to do it; it's like fighting a dodo bird. JIM LEHRER: But going through the list that Mark just did - the candidates who were in - and now, there's McCain, who's the one-who were in and now are out - now here's McCain, who is the one who's really giving Bush the race. Does that surprise you at all? Did you expect one of these other guys to -- DAVID BROOKS: I thought there'd be a conservative in the top two, and this is deep and lasting. You know, I grew up - National Review - conservative movement. We had a sense of teamwork. When you went around the world, there were other movement conservatives you were with. Now we're not talking to each other anymore. The conservative movement, as we knew it, from National Review through Goldwater, Reagan, and Gingrich has just collapsed this year. And that's a lasting influence on American politics. JIM LEHRER: Do you see it the same way? MARK SHIELDS: Yes. I was surprised that there was not a candidate who emerged from the cultural conservative side of the Republican Party that produced Pat Buchanan in the past, someone where people could really get excited. Jim, any movement gets in trouble when it starts looking for heretics instead of converts. And I think that's what's happened to the conservative movement; they're now looking for heretics. People look straight from the orthodoxy rather than welcoming and recruiting in new members. JIM LEHRER: Do you think that's the problem? DAVID BROOKS: I think that's part of it, though there was also the problem of success, you know, the conservative movement was built as an opposition movement - oppose Communism - oppose liberalism. Communism is gone; liberalism is not what it was. And then it became sealed off in itself - a lot of corruption, a lot of egomania, Newt Gingrich, and then the good people are still around - they're still conservative - but that sense of cohesive movement is all gone.
	On the Democratic side
	JIM LEHRER: Now, on the Democratic side, Al Gore versus Bill Bradley, where does that stand tonight? MARK SHIELDS: Well, again, Gore in New Hampshire, the first in the nation primary, the most recent survey there has Bradley up beyond the margin of error in the polls, some ten or twelve points ahead of Al Gore. Big surprise, Jim. I think you have to look at both parties and say the two establishment candidates, George Bush and Al Gore, backed by more money, the big names in the party, the presidents, governors, and all the rest, find as their challengers two candidates - and serious challengers - John McCain and Bill Bradley, who are riding an issue. We've had nothing but unearned cynicisms, voices tell us, nobody votes on it; campaign finance reform -- my goodness - it's only a concern of some Looney tunes editorialists and some sensible shoes wearing League of Women Voters ladies. And now you've got two Senators who have defined themselves - Bill Bradley and John McCain - on this issue who are the challengers to the money-backed candidates. And I think that Bill Bradley has to be considered certainly a serious challenger - perhaps an even more serious challenger to Al Gore - than is John McCain or George Bush. JIM LEHRER: You're nodding. DAVID BROOKS: The rules really maybe have changed. You know, we always think the good government types always say negative advertising doesn't work, the people are sick of negative advertising, and then every year it works, except for maybe this year because Gore has unleashed a torrent of negative attacks on Bill Bradley - called him a quitter - attacked his Medicare - attacked Bosnia, all sorts of attacks. Bradley's favorables in New Hampshire are up 8 percent. It could be for the first time that the conventional negative attacks that always seem to work are not working. And that could be (A) an anti-Clinton thing and (B) could be attacks the attacks are scatter shot; when George Bush attacked Michael Dukakis, all the attacks had one theme: the guy's a pointy headed liberal from this weird state of Massachusetts. But the Gore attacks don't have that single unified theme. JIM LEHRER: What about the point that's been made that once the Democratic race became a two-person race that there was just so much built-in anti-Clintonism, anti-whoever is in power -- as President - whatever - that Gore was going to have a problem - it's not so much positive Bradley - it's just that? MARK SHIELDS: Well, I think that's rear view mirror wisdom. At the time, you recall, Al Gore had a 50-point led over Bill Bradley, and Bill Bradley had this rather unorthodox campaign, going around talking to people, taking their questions, I mean, it really was a living - and it arrives in the polls. The Gore people began by denying his existence. Now, it's a twice a day. It's an AM attack, a PM attack on Bill Bradley. He's double parking outside an orphanage or something of the sort - I mean, there's just - they've gone from that, and I think that there was an advantage, no question, when you get just one candidate in a race, whether you dislike Al Gore or whether he was too loyal to Bill Clinton or not loyal enough.
	Going into the real thing
	JIM LEHRER: That's the point. In a general way, David, here we sit, as I said. We're about to go into the real thing; people are going to actually start voting here pretty soon. Has this process up till now been good for democracy? What's your overview about it? DAVID BROOKS: I think it's been quite a good, interesting election. One of the striking things is how many people are watching these debates; they're getting big audiences, those cable channels. And the other thing is the money and the way the money is affected. I don't mean the money in the campaign but the money in the country. You know, in Iowa, the unemployment rate is 1.8 percent. In New Hampshire, it's 2.1 percent. Hubert Humphrey used to go to bed dreaming of numbers like that. And yet Al Gore is not getting credit for that. The White House candidate is not getting credit for that, and I think that wealth, that tremendous wealth explosion, is sort of coloring the whole campaign, affecting it in different ways, in very surprising ways. JIM LEHRER: In fact, what do you mean, people are just so happy, so complacent, that they don't really credit anybody for it? DAVID BROOKS: There's not gratitude. I think what I sense in the electorate is that - an idea we're so rich are we going to be corrupted by all this wealth, and there is sort of a rush to character - the guys who seem a little heavier, a little weighed down-- who can hold us down amidst this NASDAQ affluence we've got. JIM LEHRER: Rush to character? MARK SHIELDS: Well, as Peter Hart, the pollster, put it, to run for national office you'd better have a telling story to tell. And this year - I agree with David - there is no overriding issue, there's no defining issue, there's no war or peace or a bad economy to -- and voters have tended, Jim, to look more at the character, who's got a story to tell? John McCain has got a story to tell that is truly compelling, and it's moved - you know - dozens - and hundreds and thousands of people in this campaign. Bill Bradley has an interesting life story to tell, and that's sort of been the interaction that I think people have gone more not to issues than certainly to biography and sort of the sense of who these people are. JIM LEHRER: Okay. Well, we'll see what happens from now on. David, Mark, thank you both very much. Have some good holidays.