POLITICAL WRAP
February 18, 2000

End-of-the-week political analysis of the South Carolina primary from syndicated columnist Mark Shields and Wall Street Journal columnist Paul Gigot, who are in Columbia, S.C.

Online Special: Election 2000 Online Special: South Carolina Politics Feb. 17, 2000: A look at the day-to-day realities of campaign coverage. Feb. 15, 2000: Journalists preview the South Carolina GOP shootout Feb. 14, 2000: Does the media offer favorable coverage to Sen. John McCain? Feb. 11, 2000: Snapshots of the GOP campaign trail. Feb. 10, 2000: Snapshots of the Democratic campaign trail. Feb. 1, 2000: Following the press in New Hampshire Jan. 20, 2000: How the tax debate takes shape in political ads Jan. 12, 2000: Are ads from special intrest groups influencing the political process? Jan. 7, 2000: Republican debate excerpts Jan. 6, 2000: Democratic debate excerpts Dec. 22, 1999: Al Gore talks about his campaign Dec. 20, 1999: Alan Keyes talks about his campaign Dec. 15, 1999 Republican presidential campaign ads Dec. 7, 1999: Democratic presidential campaign ads Dec. 10, 1999: A snapshot look at the Bush and McCain campaigns Oct. 22, 1999: Bill Bradley talks about his campaign Browse the NewsHour's coverage of the media and politics and campaigns.	JIM LEHRER: And to Shields and Gigot, syndicated columnist Mark Shields, Wall Street Journal columnist Paul Gigot. They are also in South Carolina tonight in Columbia, South Carolina. Paul, is the race as exciting down there as it appears to be from here? PAUL GIGOT: Oh, it's a wonderful race, Jim, it really is. It's not necessarily at the New Hampshire levels of enthusiasm, because that New England state has such a rich tradition of these primaries, but for this state, which hasn't had one of these in a dozen years, the placards are everywhere, the -- both candidates are drawing very big crowds, and very enthusiastic crowds. One of the differences here is that from New Hampshire -- is that George Bush is also drawing very enthusiastic crowds, where that was really only true of McCain in New Hampshire. But you've really got an engaged electorate. I walk into restaurants and if I'm wearing my -- over my shoulder the media badge, I get people coming up to me and yelling at me one way or another, telling me this or that, and it's really engaged people.
	An exciting race
	JIM LEHRER: Have you found the same thing, Mark? MARK SHIELDS: I have, Jim. It's the first time it's really taken off here. This -- you have to understand we have a very new Republican Party here in South Carolina. The primary actually began in 1974 for governor -- there were only 35,000 people turned out. And the idea was to hold a primary to get people involved, to show up and vote Republican, and then they'd get their names, and you could maybe get them to be a precinct committee man or committee woman. And it grew to the point where it was 275,000 in 1996, and Paul's absolutely right; this is -- this is a real contest. There's almost the sense of self-consciousness on the part of the voters here that one finds in Iowa and in New Hampshire. But they're aware that they're doing something big, and that a lot of people are watching. JIM LEHRER: And, Paul, how would you lay that out as to what is at stake tomorrow? PAUL GIGOT: Well, it's -- it's probably not the nomination per se, but it's a big, big step toward it, Jim. I mean, if John McCain wins here, he'll have beaten George W. Bush in the state that he said was supposed to be his firewall, the first of his firewalls, and he'll probably have enough momentum to beat him in the second of his firewalls, Michigan, which comes next Tuesday. And that would be a very big blow to George W. Bush; there's no question about it, and put McCain on his way, perhaps, to the nomination. On the other hand, if George W. Bush can stop McCain here, he might be able then to win in Michigan, and he'll have demonstrated that he -- that he can dust himself off from that pasting he took in New Hampshire, and revive his campaign and come back, much as Al Gore did somewhat when he was down in the polls two or three months ago. And that's a much better story line than -- geez, what happened to George Bush, the all conquering nominee? JIM LEHRER: What would you add to that, Mark? MARK SHIELDS: I would just say, Jim, that Governor Bush, I think, has more riding on it right now. I thought for the longest time that John McCain was going right into the -- into the hammers of hell here in South Carolina, because George Bush had it lined up. He had overwhelming support; it was a good fit for him with this state. His father had done well here in the past and was still a widely admired and almost revered figure in the Republican circles. And McCain kept saying, 'I have to win New Hampshire and I have to win South Carolina.' You don't hear him saying that now. I agree with Paul. If McCain does win here, he will win by double digits in Michigan on Tuesday, and he will win Arizona very solidly the same day. If that were the case, then it would mean that the front runner with the endorsement of the entire party establishment would have lost the first four primaries in four distinct regions of the country -- the Northeast, the southern bible belt, the industrial Midwest, and the -- growth Southwest sun belt. So I think, in that sense, he's got an awful lot -- the governor does. If he does come back, it does -- there will be an enormous sigh of relief from his supporters and backers politically that he did get up off the mat.
	McCain could bounce back from loss
	JIM LEHRER: Paul, what does coming close mean tomorrow? If one of them -- it's very, very close and one of them wins by, you know, 1 percent or 2 percent, something like that, is a win and a loss still going to mean the same, or are we going to be in for a lot of spin after that? PAUL GIGOT: Well, we're going to be in for a lot of spin, but I think that coming close is better for McCain, because he can bounce back, I think, more easily from that in Michigan -- JIM LEHRER: Why is that? Why is that? PAUL GIGOT: Well, because he's ahead right now, and because George W. Bush has got to win in a state like this. I mean, it is lined up for him -- I mean particularly with the last two weeks, what he's been doing to -- you had McCain coming in on that great wave of enthusiasm, biography, and character, and it's a very powerful message for Republicans and independents. It's -- Lindsey Graham says he was his supporter and impeachment manager who introduces him everywhere -- he was the anti-Clinton -- and he stole that character appeal from George W. Bush. now, George W. Bush has fought back by using philosophy and issues and trying to say 'I'm the conservative in the race,' appealing to the Republican electorate. There's no better state to make that kind of conservative case than South Carolina. And if he can't do it here, even if he -- even if he wins by -- you know -- 1 percent -- it's going to be a big sigh of relief. But I think McCain is better prepared to bounce back. JIM LEHRER: Do you agree, Mark? MARK SHIELDS: Well, I'd just add one wrinkle to it, Jim, and that is that both campaigns have agreed in the closing hours of this race on the subject, the defining difference between the two candidates. And that is John McCain. I mean, John McCain's campaign is saying, this is the man of courage and character and integrity in the Ronald Reagan tradition, vote for him. And the Bush campaign has been geared -- I mean, it's wall-to-wall, Jim. You can't turn on a radio station without hearing an attack on McCain. Now, McCain gave a great opening to George Bush when the McCain campaign pulled a real gaffe by doing that Bill Clinton ad. That legitimized to a considerable degree the negative attacks upon McCain to the point where George Bush could still brandish that one Xerox copy of a leaflet as sort of the justification for another $600,000 television buy. But I mean that's -- in that case if he does lose, having run that kind of a campaign, then it's really a kick in the teeth, and I don't think -- I don't think Governor Bush can recover from a loss after this campaign, where he has made McCain the issue. PAUL GIGOT: Jim, the one thing I would add is that the attacks on McCain are not on McCain as a man; they're on his -- a lot of is issues. He's attacking him on his tax plan, for example, he's attacking him on the campaign finance reform, and some of the -- not Bush himself but some of the right to -- National Right to Life Committee and some of the social conservative groups are attacking him, for example, for -- on abortion and the Supreme Court, who potential Supreme Court nominees would be. JIM LEHRER: Paul, speaking of -- yeah, go ahead. MARK SHIELDS: I just -- he's winning with a pretty -- if he wins, there are some people here that aren't going to be on Christmas card list. I mean, the Bob Jones folks -- these are people that George W. Bush did not associate with for 10 or 11 months. That's why winning is so urgent and so central to his candidacy here. If he loses ugly, it's going to be an awful, sickening and really depressing feeling.
	Smelling the money
	JIM LEHRER: Paul, talking about the TV and radio ads, much has been made in the last few days about all the money that's been spent and that George Bush has now spent $50 million, not in South Carolina, but he's spent $50 million. Can you smell the money down there? PAUL GIGOT: Well, I'll tell you if it's available, George W. Bush is buying it. JIM LEHRER: Like what? What's he spending it on? MARK SHIELDS: Gardening shows. (laughing) PAUL GIGOT: The mail. People are getting two or three phone calls. People are getting two or three or four direct mail pieces. People are looking, they've got newspaper ads, you've got radio spots. I mean, the talk radio programs, you can't -- every time they have a break, it's some kind of radio spot. TV is all over it. But I think you can make a little too much of George Bush's spending advantage here because McCain is going to be able to spend about $3 million overall. And that's an awful lot of money in this state. Remember, this is a campaign which is on the -- it's the lead story on the local news stations every night. It's the lead story in the newspapers every day. It's what people are talking about at barbershops and at coffee shops. It is out there in free media so I don't think that that big spending advantage is all that great in the end. JIM LEHRER: How do you smell the money, Mark? MARK SHIELDS: Well, it is. I mean, there's collateral material. There is no gimmick that's ever been used in a campaign that's been passed up here. It's cassettes. It is -- Paul is right -- it's direct mail. It's recorded telephone calls. And McCain is not been bashful in this area. They're spending as well. But I mean, it has ginned up interest in this state like it's never been before in any presidential campaign. Remember, South Carolina has been crucial in the past. Bob Dole did not win -- he won the Iowa caucuses in 1996. He lost Alaska, he lost Louisiana, he lost Delaware, he lost New Hampshire. He came in here and won in South Carolina and he never lost again. So I mean South Carolina is, I mean, boy, this is a central, central place. PAUL GIGOT: Jim, McCain has an awful lot of direct mail, too. All of his isn't exactly St. Francis of Assisi stuff. I mean, he's attacking George W. Bush, for example, one of his flyers, for trying to nationalize education, which is simply not true. He's attacked him on Social Security pretty hard as well. JIM LEHRER: Yeah. Meanwhile and before we go, there's been this campaign between Al Gore and Bill Bradley going on at the same time, and nobody has paid any attention to it. What have we missed, Paul? PAUL GIGOT: Well, nobody's paid any attention to it and Al Gore is very thrilled by that. He doesn't want people to pay too much attention to him. He hasn't had a press conference I don't think since before Iowa. He's been tending to the Democratic base, to the union members in New York, to the feminists and others who form the base core of the Democratic Party, African Americans in the South and elsewhere. And he thinks that he has a substantial enough lead that he can use those on March 7 to win. The problem, the frustration that Bill Bradley has is John McCain sucked all the oxygen out of the -- out of this race, all the news coverage for him. But I think the Bradley people -- they are rooting for John McCain here Saturday. They'd like him to win because they figure if he wins, they can start using the argument against Al Gore in the next two weeks that if John McCain wins the Republican nominee, he's going to go right at Al Gore on the campaign finance stuff and on character and ethics and truthfulness and maybe Al Gore can't win. Bill Bradley is a better candidate. JIM LEHRER: How do you see the Democrats this week, Mark? MARK SHIELDS: Well, Jim, there was a rather poignant report in the New York Times about Bill Bradley traveling in a bus with three staff members in the bus and traveling bus behind him with just a handful of reporters. I mean, it's a terrible thing about the -- this business. I mean, politics is a very, very cruel and publicly painful business for those in it. You lose and you lose the crowd. You lose the attendance. There's no question McCain is the story. I mean, McCain is the story to the point where George W. Bush this week was billing himself as a reformer and talking about, you know, a soft money bill which would, you know, was immediately attacked by Russ Feingold and a bunch of other people. I mean, this has been McCain's campaign in setting the style, the tone and the direction as well as the format. JIM LEHRER: OK. Well, we'll leave it there and we'll see what happens tomorrow. We'll see you all here Monday night to talk about it. Thank you. MARK SHIELDS: OK, thank you.