POLITICAL WRAP: NEW HAMPSHIRE
February 2, 2000

Syndicated columnist Mark Shields and Wall Street Journal columnist Paul Gigot analyze the New Hampshire primary and the upcoming Republican primary in South Carolina.

Visit the NewsHour's full coverage of the New Hampshire primary Feb. 1, 2000: Gigot and Oliphant review the New Hampshire primary Jan. 27, 2000: Gigot and Oliphant analyze Republican debates Jan. 27, 2000: Gigot and Oliphant analyze Democratic debates Jan. 25, 2000: Shields and Gigot evaluate the Iowa caucuses. Jan. 21, 2000: Shields and Gigot look at the Iowa caucuses. Jan. 14, 2000: Bush and McCain on the road Jan. 13, 2000: Bradley and Gore on the road Dec. 24, 1999: Shields and Brooks discuss Bradley and McCain Dec. 22, 1999: One-on-one with Al Gore Dec. 20, 1999: One-on-one with Alan Keyes Dec. 10, 1999: Shields and Gigot look at the Bush and McCain campaigns Nov. 24, 1999: Gary Bauer talks one-on-one Nov. 18, 1999: A Steve Forbes campaign snapshot Oct. 15, 1999: One-on-one with John McCain Browse the NewsHour's coverage of the media and politics and campaigns.	GWEN IFILL: That's syndicated columnist Mark Shields and Wall Street Journal columnist Paul Gigot, joining us for a political reality check. We just heard, Mark, John McCain talking about his big plans for the future. But what really happens to him now after New Hampshire? Can he make this work in South Carolina and beyond?
	Republican victory and fall-out in New Hampshire
	MARK SHIELDS: Well, Gwen, first of all, New Hampshire by itself, John McCain didn't overstate the reality there. I mean it was... he was outspent at least 2-1, maybe 3-1. He had all three previous Republican Governors lined up there. They brought in all the face cards of the Republican party-- Jack Kemp, the last Republican, Elizabeth Dole, his father the last president, Governor Bush -- and the entire establishment was lined up against him, and he just whomped them. He won by the biggest margin in the history of contested Republican primaries in New Hampshire's running. GWEN IFILL: That said, where does he go? MARK SHIELDS: Well, where does he go? The question is: What kind of a bounce is he going to get out of that? I mean the margin in South Carolina is about 20 points or maybe a little more. And if in fact it's down... Lindsey Graham, the Congressman from South Carolina who is up in frigid and absolutely frostbitten New Hampshire, said that if they could win by seven points, he said this Monday night, if they could win by seven points in New Hampshire, he could take it to South Carolina and make it competitive, bring it down to ten points by this weekend. If he gets that kind of a bounce, he's got a shot in South Carolina. It's a long shot. It's a different electorate. The religious right is a lot more prominent. And Governor Bush went down there today; his first stop was at Bob Jones University, affectionately known as a buckle on the bible belt, a place where interracial dating is not tolerated, where women wear nylons and skirts, and went in there and in the space of two minutes, by one report, used the word conservative 12 times. So he's got to run against John McCain as liberal, liberal, liberal. GWEN IFILL: And we just heard John McCain do the same thing with Jim Lehrer, which is use the word conservative over and over again. My favorite quote today was a Bush aide today said that in spite of John McCain's win last night in New Hampshire, he's still a couple of French fries short of a Happy Meal, which is a terrible way of saying he's still got a long way to go. PAUL GIGOT: Yeah, sure, he has to run the table. He has to win South Carolina and then he has to win his home state of Arizona, and then he has to compete against George Bush head to head all the rest of the way, and Bush has the money to do it, there's no question. It's daunting. But Judd Gregg, the head of the Bush campaign in New Hampshire, told me that John McCain had to win by ten or twelve points to get a big bounce. Well, he won by 18. This was when they thought they'd only lose by about three or four if they lost. So I mean there's a danger here for the Bush campaign that... two really: One is that head to head with John McCain, he doesn't look as presidential. He doesn't look like the same kind of leader. He lost 4-1 among... MARK SHIELDS: Governor Bush you mean. PAUL GIGOT: I mean Governor Bush. He doesn't have the some kind of stature. And unless he can present himself in a way that measures up to that, he may really... he could lose this thing because this is a year in which issues don't seem to matter as much as the man, as leadership, as character. And that's McCain's great appeal. His appeal may be like Jimmy Carter's in 1976 for Republicans... That was for Democrats. His appeal for Republicans this year may be similar in that it may transcend issues.
	The tax issue
	GWEN IFILL: Did the tax cut issue that George W. Bush was basing his campaign on so much in Iowa and New Hampshire, to a different degree, will it work for him as we go down the road in a better way? Does he need to figure out a better way to use it? MARK SHIELDS: I hate to say that I thought the Bush people were running Jack Kemp's presidential campaign for the fourth time. There's nothing more durable -- there's nothing more durable in American politics than a political idea that once won the White House. Republicans are back... I mean Ronald Reagan won in 1980 pledging a tax cut. And every Republican - that's become the Holy Grail every since. And yesterday it didn't have traction, it didn't have saliency among New Hampshire voters. Only one in six listed it as that important to them. So you know, it's a real question whether in fact they look at a strong leader, stands up for his beliefs. And what Paul said about that looking for the person rather than the issue, that worked for John McCain yesterday. GWEN IFILL: I want to move on to the Democrats. Al Gore won... PAUL GIGOT: Let me answer the tax issue. GWEN IFILL: Okay, go ahead. PAUL GIGOT: I just think - I mean, I talked to Karl Rove, George Bush's strategist, and he said that the mistake they made was to let John McCain frame the tax cut issue as a Hobson's choice between tax cuts and Social Security, one or the other. In South Carolina, George Bush has to stop that and make the case that you can do both. If he does that, it may work better for him.
	Democratic victory and fallout in New Hampshire
	GWEN IFILL: Now to the Democrats. Al Gore won, but who did he win when he won, Paul? PAUL GIGOT: He won Joe "Six Pack" Democrat. He won lower income Democrats. He won the rank and file. He won women, he won union members. He won the teachers. He won the standard-issue Democrats. He lost among men. If... 61% of the electorate in that primary was women. If it had only been 55% women, Bill Bradley would have won. GWEN IFILL: What is appealing about al Gore to women? PAUL GIGOT: I think prosperity. He drove that issue really hard. He drove the fact that times are good, that your circumstances are better, that there's more security, and that Bill Clinton has been good... The Clinton administration has been good for your lives. That... Bill Clinton has always done very well with women, and I think Al Gore's trying to capitalize on that. GWEN IFILL: And Bill Bradley appeals to jocks. Where does this leave him? Does he have to start taking the gloves off? MARK SHIELDS: Well, there's no question that the late deciders in the last few days went heavily for Bradley. Bradley was trailing badly -- even though he lost and Al Gore become the first non- incumbent presidential candidate since 1976 to win both Iowa and New Hampshire in the same year, which was really quite an achievement -- Bill Bradley was cheered, as were his supporters, by his closing of the gap. But there's little question that what worked for him-- or apparently little question-- was the charge on integrity, and that's a tough one to take. It's especially a tough one to take because it's going to be tough for the Democrats, but he's taking it to places where... Paul just outlined the demographics of the electorate of minority voters, of women, of blue collar voters, of older voters. Those are the states you're describing of New York and where the Democratic vote is going to be more traditional and where Gore has demonstrated greater support. GWEN IFILL: Does Bill Bradley have to find some way to... He tried to base his attack in the last few days on the fact that Al Gore was tied to Bill Clinton. But Bill Clinton ended up being al Gore's ace in the hole maybe, somewhat. PAUL GIGOT: Well, I think this is a contest, I mean, about how you define the Clinton legacy. If Al Gore is able to bask in Clinton era prosperity, he's going to run away with it. That's why I think the only chance that Bill Bradley has is he can connect Gore to the things a lot of Democrats don't like about this administration, which is integrity, trust, character, the status of the presidency. 55% of Democrats in New Hampshire had an unfavorable view... GWEN IFILL: Personally. PAUL GIGOT: ...As a person of Bill Clinton. Bradley won those, about 60% of those voters. Those are the voters he has to get elsewhere. I think it's the only chance he has. GWEN IFILL: Mark? MARK SHIELDS: Bill Bradley has to put, "look, what we have to did is we have to clean house. We have to clean up the Democratic Party." This is it. I mean he doesn't have to go after Bill Clinton personally. We want to feel good again as Democrats. That's the kind of party we are. It ties into campaign finance reform, it ties into all of Bradley's themes about taking care of children, that "that's the kind of Democratic Party we are, and let's start right now by cleaning up our own, then we can clean the nation." PAUL GIGOT: Character to results, not just to principles and achievements, but also to results in November. "If we don't clean our house, the Republicans will clean it for us."
	Issue candidates vs. character candidates
	GWEN IFILL: Yeah. If he only could deliver that line the way you just delivered it. What happens with Steve Forbes? Steve Forbes is also running. I think if you put dollar per vote, he would have spent the most money in this campaign so far by far. What does he have to do if he's going to survive? PAUL GIGOT: Well, they're going to fight on in Delaware next Tuesday because he won that primary in 1996, and he and Governor Bush are going head to head. I think they feel that if they can beat Bush there, or wound him, then it muddles the picture for South Carolina. Maybe John McCain can then beat Governor Bush again, and then it's a topsy-turvy world and they can somehow meander through the rubble and emerge as a challenger to John McCain. That's a Hail Mary pass, and I think there's going to be increasing pressure on Forbes to get out on the right so that... National Review Magazine, for example, Bill Buckley's magazine, is going to come out and say, "Steve, for instance, should withdraw." And I think that's because they see they wanted this race to be a conservative/liberal race, and the only way George Bush can win is if he unites all the conservatives. GWEN IFILL: Mark. MARK SHIELDS: I'd say Steve Forbes has a tough, tough decision. John McCain and McCain's people would like to have Steve Forbes and Alan Keyes competing vocally and actively and energetically in South Carolina because of the large religious conservative component in the Republican primary down there, which John McCain has not had a natural affinity with so far. And they'd like to have him pulling off some from Bush. But I just don't see how you make the case to go on. I mean he got whomped death. He got no lift out of his second-place showing in Iowa where he did get 30%. He ended up at a real standstill from what he got the last time in New Hampshire. I mean this is $35 million and four years later, Gwen. It's a tough case to make that we could spend some more, even with Delaware. PAUL GIGOT: Nobody votes for Steve Forbes on charisma or personality, and... MARK SHIELDS: And he doesn't say the Hail Mary. PAUL GIGOT: And this is a year where the issues candidates have had a tough time. The character candidates have had a better time. GWEN IFILL: Okay. Well, we'll get back on all this in South Carolina February 19 and then Super Tuesday on March 7. Mark Shields, Paul Gigot, thanks a lot.