POLITICAL WRAP
February 2, 2000

Wall Street Journal columnist Paul Gigot and Boston Globe columnist Tom Oliphant discuss the upcoming Republican primary in South Carolina and Democratic "Super Tuesday" campaigning.

Visit the NewsHour's full coverage of the New Hampshire primary Feb. 2, 2000: Shields and Gigot offer political perspective on the New Hampshire primary. Feb. 1, 2000: Gigot and Oliphant review the New Hampshire primary Jan. 27, 2000: Gigot and Oliphant analyze Republican debates Jan. 27, 2000: Gigot and Oliphant analyze Democratic debates Jan. 25, 2000: Shields and Gigot evaluate the Iowa caucuses. Jan. 21, 2000: Shields and Gigot look at the Iowa caucuses. Jan. 14, 2000: Bush and McCain on the road Jan. 13, 2000: Bradley and Gore on the road Dec. 24, 1999: Shields and Brooks discuss Bradley and McCain Dec. 22, 1999: One-on-one with Al Gore Dec. 20, 1999: One-on-one with Alan Keyes Dec. 10, 1999: Shields and Gigot look at the Bush and McCain campaigns Nov. 24, 1999: Gary Bauer talks one-on-one Nov. 18, 1999: A Steve Forbes campaign snapshot Oct. 15, 1999: One-on-one with John McCain Browse the NewsHour's coverage of the media and politics and campaigns.     New York Board of Elections	JIM LEHRER: And to our Friday night political analysis with Wall Street Journal columnist Paul Gigot, and Boston Globe columnist Tom Oliphant, substituting for Mark Shields. Tom, the poll surge by John McCain in South Carolina, how do you read his going from here -- going up 20 points just in a few days just since New Hampshire? TOM OLIPHANT: Well, after a political earthquake, I think you can expect a political tidal wave. This is as big a one as I've seen since Gary Hart 16 years ago in the Democratic presidential primaries. The thing that was most interesting about this surge for Senator McCain, it came in a poll that was taken by John Zogby, who has a very good reputation these days. The poll found -- JIM LEHRER: He does them for Reuters. TOM OLIPHANT: Yes, indeed. In this case he found not only some indication of the surge in interest in the race among people who think of themselves as independents, even some who think of themselves as Democrats, what made the Zogby poll a threat to Bush was that he found a willingness to consider John McCain among normal Republicans, including born-again Christians. The result was to transform the landscape overnight from something that had been presumed to be a firewall to something that is now an even-up contest that's anyone is capable of wining. JIM LEHRER: Do you read it the same way, Paul? PAUL GIGOT: Yeah. Absolutely. It's a contest. All along, one of George Bush's big strengths was that he was ahead in the polls because he was ahead of the polls. He was inevitable. Everybody said he was inevitable. Why? Because he could win in November. Why? Because everybody said he could win in November. When you lose so decisively in a state like New Hampshire, everybody suddenly says, and Republicans who want to win in November suddenly say, well, if he can't take on John McCain, Al Gore -- that terminator over there who's taking apart Bill Bradley -- could do something like that to George W. Bush. It gives everyone a second look at the race. I think that's what's happening in South Carolina. The other thing about South Carolina is this is the first time that South Carolina is really going to have a hotly contested primary. I mean, when Pat Buchanan was going against Bob Dole in 1996, Buchanan had nothing in the state. He had him and his PR guy.
	Buchanan's 1996 South Carolina campaign
	JIM LEHRER: He had the same situation. Buchanan had done well in New Hampshire, not as well as McCain. But he had done well, and he was to be stopped in South Carolina. PAUL GIGOT: He had no money. He was eating off nuts and berries. He's trying to call up radio stations. It wasn't a campaign. It was just Pat on a -- doing what Pat does. This is a real threat and a real fight. I think you're going to see South Carolina voters really interested in this because it's going to go down to the wire. TOM OLIPHANT: Though there are obstacles to it. This is a primary that occurs on a Saturday. Unlike New Hampshire, South Carolina doesn't have much of a tradition of voting. I think the turnout four years ago was not really very much higher than in New Hampshire, a much smaller state. But I don't think there's any question that Bush is going to respond to this by going at McCain as hard as he can. It's not going to be pretty from here on in. JIM LEHRER: Well, we'll get to that in a minute. But what about McCain? McCain said today that something magic going on. He was talking about the poll, talking about 2,000 people at this huge rally that showed up in Myrtle Beach today. Is something magic going on? PAUL GIGOT: I think he's captured the public mood. He's caught the mood of the country, at least of the Republican and Independent electorate of the country. They do after seven years of Clinton want somebody they can admire in the White House. They want somebody they can look up to and tell your children, that's the kind of life I want you to lead. And he's setting that kind of example. People have been looking for that. And there is some magic with that. And he's captured something that none of the other candidates so far with all their ideas and their agendas and their plans have captured. JIM LEHRER: Okay. What does George W. Bush do about this? TOM OLIPHANT: Pick up a two by four and hit him first on one side of the head and then the other. It may start this weekend. JIM LEHRER: You mean from the left and then from the right? TOM OLIPHANT: Exactly. JIM LEHRER: You mean that symbolically? TOM OLIPHANT: Exactly. And any other direction he can think of. The initial strategy we understand tonight because they've put out the text of a television ad that's begun running is to go right at him negatively. JIM LEHRER: Read a couple of those -- TOM OLIPHANT: Like all attack ads these days, it begins with injured innocents -- things McCain has been saying are not true and then it gets to the point - and it's on taxes -- first of all, smaller than Clinton's. That's as bad as it can get among Republicans. JIM LEHRER: The accusation being that McCain's tax proposal is smaller than Clinton. TOM OLIPHANT: And then, secondly, even worse is that he echoes the views of the dreaded Washington Democrats. And for Bush to do this -- JIM LEHRER: And then he adds a line about conservatives, right? TOM OLIPHANT: That we need a conservative leader to challenge what he's done. So, you put all that together. And compared to what's been going on in this campaign up until now, that's a frontal assault right at John McCain, to which, by the way, he'll have to respond quickly and effectively in order to maintain his position in South Carolina. PAUL GIGOT: If that's a negative attack, man, we have entered the Marquis of Queensbury's Rules -- I mean - campaign -- this is something George Bush should have done two weeks ago in New Hampshire. Because John McCain was running an ad that said "George Bush wants to cut your taxes and he doesn't want to do a thing about Social Security." That's flat not true. Bush does take a lot of money from the payroll tax and devotes it to Social Security. Bush left that McCain ad unanswered and he left it too long unanswered in South Carolina and McCain defined the tax issue in a way that neutralized it. If Bush can't turn that around in South Carolina, he's going to lose. TOM OLIPHANT: It does set the stage for an interesting debate again on the Republican side about how to use the non-Social Security surplus. McCain would put most of it also into Social Security. Bush would not. There is both a political and substantive debate here waiting to happen.
	McCain and the New York ballot
	JIM LEHRER: All right. Now, there's another development regarding the Republicans. That is the New York ballot decision, Bush and Governor Pataki backed off, McCain will now be on all the ballot in all districts, in all ballots in the March 7th New York primary. What happened there, Paul? PAUL GIGOT: First of all, it's about time. I mean, New York's Republican Party is in many ways old Tammany Hall Democratic politics; it is designed for the front-runner, designed to protect the favorite. It's been used against candidates for years. Steve Forbes suffered from it in 1996 against Bob Dole, and McCain was going to take it this time. But McCain had a couple of assets. One, Steve Forbes had fought a court fight in 1996 which loosened it somewhat. And McCain was following that up with his own court challenge, which he was likely to win. The second thing he had -- and this is where the media support for John McCain comes in because he had a media echo chamber that was beating this like a drum and turning around to George W. Bush and saying, "aren't you playing unfairly?" The fact is he was. This was an affront to democracy and McCain deserves to be able to get on the ballot. TOM OLIPHANT: Interesting view of the Bush campaign as this lumbering battleship that is very slow to turn. A week ago, Jim, a federal judge in New York essentially signaled -- JIM LEHRER: He said he was going to get McCain -- TOM OLIPHANT: Beginning a week ago the bush campaign had the option of taking that towel, throwing it into the middle of the ring and maybe getting some credit. JIM LEHRER: Before New Hampshire. TOM OLIPHANT: That's right. And before it looked like they were being forced to. But by dragging it out six days, they gave McCain a bonanza of free publicity in New York that you could not buy for $5 million. JIM LEHRER: And he's still got the issue, doesn't he? TOM OLIPHANT: Right through to the primary. JIM LEHRER: What did Pataki and his folks think they were going to do? PAUL GIGOT: They were going to rig it so they could deliver the state for George W. Bush. JIM LEHRER: And he thought nobody was going to notice? PAUL GIGOT: There's precedent here. In 1996 the only people that noticed that I remember were the Wall Street Journal editorial page. We kept running editorials saying, this is an outrage. Al D'Amato is sewing it for his pal, Bob Dole. Nobody paid attention. This time McCain had the New York Times, he has every columnist - JIM LEHRER: The Times was on this every day editorially. PAUL GIGOT: Sure. McCain is their guy now. TOM OLIPHANT: With the same fervor that the Wall Street Journal showed for Steve Forbes indicating that perhaps it was a matter of whose ox was being gored. PAUL GIGOT: It deserves to be opened up for whatever challenger.
	Gary Bauer bows out
	JIM LEHRER: All right. Now, Gary Bauer dropped out today. What memories does he leave behind, Tom? TOM OLIPHANT: I'll tell you. Some real passion on a subject that still divides Republicans, you'll see it in Congress all this year, even if it's no longer reflected in the presidential campaign. And that is that the increasingly close economic relationship with China is at the expense of basic American values and even national security interests. Other than Pat Buchanan, I can't think of somebody who brought more passion to that point of view and it's gone. But there are still Republicans who think he's right. And secondly, you get this somewhat with Alan Keyes, but not with the kind of policy-grounded fervor you got from Gary Bauer, that if you're right-to-life as a matter of conviction, you have to be right-to-life and you have to stop fudging. And that clarity, again, is reflected in all kinds of Republicans who continue to believe that way but may not have anybody to speak for them as the election starts to be directed toward the center. JIM LEHRER: Toward the middle. How do you see Gary Bauer? PAUL GIGOT: He made a contribution on the anti-abortion movement. He brought a civility, even an eloquence to the argument, framing it in terms of Lincoln and bringing everybody to the table. I think he did a service to his cause there. The passion that Tom sees on China I don't think was there. I think he made a colossal blunder to make China trade his signature issue. He spent $400,000 in the last week in Iowa on TV and radio ads to try to make that an issue. JIM LEHRER: It just doesn't resonate. PAUL GIGOT: He said in his defense if I hadn't been talking about it, nobody would. Yes, that's right. Nobody cared. And I think with that failure has probably done more to guarantee the World Trade Organization - China's entry into it passes this year -- than anything -- all the TV ads that Boeing and everybody else could run.
	The Democrats after New Hampshire
	JIM LEHRER: Finally, before we go, the Democratic race, Gore, Bradley, how does it look at the end of this New Hampshire week? TOM OLIPHANT: Coming out of something as enormous as this McCain earthquake, the real question was whether one or both of the Democratic candidates could be heard over the din. Obviously Bill Bradley has the greater need to be heard. And my sense throughout the week that was he was not able to come up with something that provided a message over this noise. So in a sense, ever since Tuesday night, it's as if McCain -- it just didn't happen for him. PAUL GIGOT: Page A21, "New York Times" I think. That's where Bradley is now relegated, at least until this McCain wave crashes. That's not good news for the Bradley campaign. JIM LEHRER: We got e-mail from viewers from people saying, "Wait a minute. You folks, meaning people like us, need to be reminded it was Al Gore who won the Democratic race in New Hampshire and all the talk was about Bradley." Did we, I don't mean "we," the three of us - but the big we, overstate what Bradley did in New Hampshire? PAUL GIGOT: Well, no, I don't think so. I mean, Bradley did catch up, but he probably -- but in the comparison with McCain, his victory was so large and it changed that race so much that Bradley is having so much of the oxygen and the energy sucked out of that that he doesn't have the same élan, the excitement on the Democratic side. And he does need that excitement, as Tom says, to overcome Gore's significant advantage. But we both said that Gore is the front runner for sure -- JIM LEHRER: But a lot of people thought, Tom, that McCain's storm would help Bradley because, oh, my goodness this is the year of the insurgence and this would help him. The last few days it has not. TOM OLIPHANT: I don't think the system has room for more than one insurgent. And in a sense in New Hampshire, McCain could be said to have beaten Bradley just to an extent Gore beat Bush. JIM LEHRER: A Democrat looking for a choice that doesn't -- TOM OLIPHANT: Not yet. He has to provide that reason and then he has to do it in such a way that he can be heard. Just hasn't done it yet. JIM LEHRER: Okay. Still plenty of time. Thank you both very much.