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| POLITICAL WRAP | |
 July 21, 2000  |
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Syndicated columnist Mark Shields and Wall Street Journal columnist Paul Gigot discuss the week's news in politics, including the search for vice presidential candidates and the upcoming Republican campaign.
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MARGARET WARNER: And for our end of the week political analysis we turn, as usual, to syndicated columnist Mark Shields and Wall Street Journal columnist Paul Gigot. Mark, this Waco issue has been with us for seven years now. John Danforth, one of the most respected Republicans going says government did nothing wrong. Do you think this is going to put an end to the conspiracy theories? |
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| Government cleared in Waco investigation | ||||||||||||||||||||
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MARGARET WARNER: What do you think the impact is going to be? PAUL GIGOT: Well, I think it's good to have Jack Danforth come in and not make this a partisan issue. Let's face it. It says that Dan Burton is to blame but the administration hasn't inspired a lot of confidence. But I think it's good to get Danforth in there and say what he did. The fact that he was willing to score some of the Justice people for not being forthcoming with him buttresses his credibility when he makes judgments and says, look, they were not responsible for the murders at Waco. And I think we owe him a debt for looking at the facts |
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Maverick McCain |
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MARK SHIELDS: Well, let's start by saying, nobody knows what it's all about except that it put John McCain back in the mix. John McCain remains, according to the Wall Street Journal, NBC News, all of the surveys and according most of all to importance of election of Republicans who are on the ballot this fall, the most popular figure, most in and out of the party. Just as one example -- Charlie Bass, Republican from New Hampshire running for reelection, a little nervous, just did his poll. McCain came back at 81 percent favorable in his district. The first thing Charlie Bass did was pick up the phone and call John McCain. So there are a lot of Republicans worried about keeping the House who'd like to keep John McCain on the ticket. George Bush may not be one of them, the governor of Texas. But it started that speculation anew, and quite frankly, I think it probably sank that speculation as well because if there's one thing we've learned out of Austin is that they don't like anybody talking about anything that goes on in their minds in their tribal councils or anything of the sort. And loyalty means secrecy and taciturn approach. And John McCain, whatever else he is, he may be very loyal, but taciturn he is not. PAUL GIGOT: Yeah. This little boomlet, I think, has more to do with House Republicans in particular from swing districts, the head of the House Campaign Committee, Tom Davis of Virginia. They like the idea of showing up in the polls. 95 House and Senate candidates requested that John McCain appear for them. MARGARET WARNER: 60 of them signed this letter urging Bush to appoint him. PAUL GIGOT: Sure. And there is no question that McCain has a lot of appeal to swing voters, even if he is the vice president. You have to think hard about that. On the other hand, George Bush, if he wins, has to make sure on January 21, next year, he's inaugurated, he doesn't regret that decision for the next four years. MARGARET WARNER: All right. So -
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| Bush and the VP choice | ||||||||||||||||||||
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MARGARET WARNER: All right. This is the last time we'll talk about it, without knowing who his choice is, so I'm going to put you both on the spot. Who do you think is the optimum choice for Bush? MARK SHIELDS: Well, there are three choices that terrify Democrats, terrify them. First, obviously, is Colin Powell. I mean Colin Powell, there was a brief flurry this week in the middle of week in Austin about a rumor that Colin Powell may be available. That would make such a profound statement about George Bush himself, that he is not fearful, unlike most presidential nominees. It speaks volumes about who somebody chooses. I mean, it said a lot about Walter Mondale when he chose Geraldine Ferraro. It said a lot about George Bush when he chose Dan Quayle; it said a lot about Dick Nixon when he chose Spiro Agnew, and said something very big about Ronald Reagan when he offered it to Gerry Ford, and Jack Kennedy when he offered it to Lyndon Johnson. For him to offer it to Colin Powell, not to be afraid of being dwarfed, of a stature gap, would be something, and race trumps choice. It would eliminate abortion as an issue for the Republicans. PAUL GIGOT: Sure. MARK SHIELDS: Okay. Second, is John McCain. Democrats are terrified of John McCain because right now among undecided voters in the presidential race, which is now narrowed to the margin of error, we're talking about two to one unfavorable toward Bush and Gore, while McCain among the same voters is three and a half to one favorable. The third one is Tom Ridge, governor of Pennsylvania who every Democrat I've talked to said would carry Pennsylvania and bring with him three House seats that are up for grabs, that the Democrats are eyeing for their new majority and Republicans are defending. PAUL GIGOT: I agree with him on the first two, but not the third. One
transforming figure in this race and that's Colin Powell. ... He brings
such special characteristics to the race and to history that it would
be remarkable, and I think George W. Bush has asked him. In fact, he
has really sat down and said, "we need you" and Powell's answer
is, "look, I'm just not interested in elected politics. I'll be
your secretary of state but not elected politics." McCain, I think
MARGARET WARNER: And a distraction for whatever they're trying to say. PAUL GIGOT: And a distraction. He is trying to say I've got a message of compassionate conservatism, I've got a message on education that's about me, and Tom Ridge, let's have a fight about abortion, and it opens up Pat Buchanan potentially. Pat Buchanan is nowhere in the polls; he has flat lined. Ralph Nader is doubling his vote in the polls. But you give Buchanan that opening. And I everything I know about the Bush campaign tells me they are probably not going to make that kind of a risky choice. The decision you have to think about is, does he go really safe then with somebody like Frank Keating, governor of Oklahoma, Dick Cheney former Defense secretary, maybe a Jack Danforth from Missouri, well regarded. These are people who have real stature, they've been vetted nationally. Certainly Dick Cheney has, Frank Keating. We saw in the Oklahoma bombing aftermath, he performed very well. But they're not going to excite people but they're not going to do you any harm. MARK SHIELDS: All this about connecting the dots, we heard Senator Danforth talking about Waco. What led to Oklahoma City...Waco - that's what McVeigh and the paranoids said. That was part of it; that's what led to it, that was their retaliation. The very fact that Frank Keating, governor of Oklahoma, handled himself well and one thing he is remembered for alt all nationally... Or made any conspicuous contribution was the Oklahoma City bombing, a direct consequence of Waco. |
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| Gore and the Texas budget | ||||||||||||||||||||
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PAUL GIGOT: He's doing this because he needs to make sure - the best argument he has is that George Bush is too risky. He's too risky because he's from Texas, and it's too conservative for the rest of the country, just like New York is too liberal, Massachusetts is too liberal for Republicans - Texas is too conservative; he's trying to make that case. The other one is he's too inexperienced. And that's why Gore is zeroing in on the budget surplus, because he's trying to say, look, if he can't control the budget surplus in Texas, he's not going to be able to manage responsibly the budget surplus in Washington. The problem he has is he doesn't have a good factual case in Texas right now, because there really still is a very big surplus in Texas. What we're talking about here is just a fill-up in spending that has been popped up here. It's more than amply taken care of by the revenues that they expect. But that's why he is making the argument. MARGARET WARNER: Does it have legs for him? MARK SHIELDS: Sure it has legs. The only public record the man has
is as governor of Texas. I agree with Paul on the point - I mean, it's
a place where first of all Gore has standing unlike anybody else in
the history of the country. This is the only eight-year period in the
history of the United States in our entire history where deficits have
gone down and surpluses have gone up every single consecutive year of
a presidency. That's a remarkable record. I think Paul is absolutely
right about Michael Dukakis had to explain Massachusetts, where a convicted
murderer could have a weekend pass -- something that hadn't been debated
in Massachusetts -- PAUL GIGOT: But the reason he is going after the budget deficit is the gun control argument hasn't worked as well for Gore as he thought it would. The lesson of Dukakis... if you're a Republican right now, and the lesson Democrats took away is you better respond and Gore is going to win this argument unless the Bush campaign comes back more strongly, I think, than it did this week. I mean, the governor was not at his best when he was responding to this, and then they did issue press releases. I mean, my e-mails are filled with their responses. But I don't sense that they were engaging in this quite the way they need to, to make sure that this argument doesn't sink, because if it does sink in that somehow there's something a little dangerous about Texas, it's going to hurt George Bush. MARK SHIELDS: It's more than just gun control. I mean, it is the lowest number of children with health insurance in the country and the - and sort of a Texas ethos, which is if things are good, if you're a success, this is a great state, low taxes, no taxes, very low public services, but if things are going for you, if you're old, young or sick, this may not be. Is that George Bush's view of America? MARGARET WARNER: All right. Thank you both. |
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MARK
SHIELDS: I hope it does, Margaret. I mean I would just eliminate your
qualifier. He is one of the most respected men in American public life.
And I thought he spoke eloquently in his interview with Jim about that
obsessive... whatever it is, compulsion on the part of some people in
office, probably most conspicuous, the chairman of the House Investigating
Committee, Dan Burton of Indiana, always to ascribe some nefarious,
perverse sinister motive, especially to public service. I'm grateful
to hear him, especially in view of the charges against the FBI and the
American law enforcement, that they did their job…and to hear the
terrible... I mean this suicide-murder described in full. 
MARGARET
WARNER: All right. Let's turn to the presidential race. The speculation
is just at a feverish pitch now about Bush's vice presidential choice.
Headlines this morning-- Mark, I'll start with you-- reviving speculation
about John McCain based on some purported conversation between McCain
and the governor of Pennsylvania, Tom Ridge. What is this all about?
PAUL
GIGOT: There... just to finish that point, to connect the dots, there
is a problem of loyalty and whether or not George Bush picks John McCain,
whether he thinks he can live with him as Vice President, because John
McCain is an independent man. He doesn't like to be number two. He would
tell you that himself.
it's
a question of, it would help for the election? I don't know whether
Bush can live with him for four years or whether McCain could live in
that job for four years. Tom Ridge, one thing we know about the Bush
campaign in Austin is they like to control the message. If you name
Tom Ridge, it is an abortion story. And it is an abortion story leading
up to the convention, it is an abortion story at the convention, and
that creates potential problems. 
MARGARET
WARNER: Okay. Now the one issue on which Bush and Gore actually engaged
this week was when Gore went down to Texas yesterday and attacked Bush
for squandering the budget surplus in Texas. Why is Gore doing this?
Michael
Dukakis didn't pay a price for. George Bush didn't pay a price in Texas
for being the first and only governor in 125 years to endorse the NRA-backed
concealed weapons law. That strikes most people in American suburbs
in places like Michigan and Illinois and California as loony. So what
you want to do is not simply the deficit - you want to do Texas outside
the mainstream.