POLITICAL WRAP
June 2, 2000

Syndicated columnist Mark Shields and Wall Street Journal columnist Paul Gigot analyze the week in politics.

June 1, 2000: U.S./Europe Relations May 31, 2000: Nuclear Weapon Debate May 30, 2000: New York Senate Race Online Special: Election 2000 Online Special: An Interview with George W. Bush Online Special: An Interview with Al Gore Browse the NewsHour's coverage of Shields & Gigot.     The White House	TERENCE SMITH: We get that analysis from Shields and Gigot; syndicated columnist Mark Shields and Wall Street Journal columnist Paul Gigot. Gentlemen, welcome. Mark, I'm not sure the public's paying much attention, but there is a rumor that there's a presidential race under way. Is this a fact? If so, how is it going?
	A new Al Gore?
	MARK SHIELDS: There is a presidential race under way, and it is going. I mean both campaigns are moving. This -- John Zogby, the New York pollster, Reuters pollster, came out with numbers with the first good news Al Gore has had since the 7th of March -- showed him in a statistical dead heat -- African American voters, Hispanics, labor union families coming home to Gore. And that's good news for Gore and as I mentioned, it is among a small sprinkling or shower of good news in an otherwise drought, but once again he had trouble earlier in the week with the news Terry, that there's a new Al Gore. And every campaign begins with a candidate, whoever that candidate is, trying to address some problem. Bill Clinton was, the suggestion was in '92, he was a provincial figure, that he was maybe McGovern liberal. He obviously emphasized his Rhodes credentials -- his Rhodes Scholar credentials. He did things like Sister Soulja and so forth, proving he wasn't a traditional liberal. Al Gore had to prove as all vice presidents do who run, in their own right, that he is his own man. And he tried that -- albeit ineffectively in the Elian Gonzalez case - where he tried to establish daylight but did not establish necessarily strength or independence. So I think the poll news is good news for him. TERENCE SMITH: And, in fact, Paul, this week the Gore campaign actually all but advertised this change in strategy. PAUL GIGOT: Well, to reassure the nervous nellie Democrats who had been beginning to fret a little bit that he was behind in the polls and saying let's get it on, Al, let's get it up. It helps that there is no question about that. They're talking here about the new nice guy Al Gore. This is a reflection of some of the problems they've been seeing in the polling that's not the good news, which is that his negatives are very high. People don't like him. He was coming a little off too harsh, too much like the one-trick pony, attack, attack, attack, the way he did Bill Bradley -- this is carrying over to the broader race. It might have worked against Democrats... against a fellow Democrat with loyal Democratic voters who like the way things are going in the country. Among independents, it hadn't been playing as well. They're not changing strategy. There are going to be a lot of Democrats attacking George W. Bush, including Bill Clinton. TERENCE SMITH: As a surrogate. PAUL GIGOT: As a surrogate -- I mean, the ultimate surrogate, the President in the White House. In a way, they switch roles. Usually it's the Vice President, the vice presidential candidate who attacks for the presidential nominee. In this case you have the sitting president doing the attacking for his vice president who is now the presidential nominee. So it's a very nice surrogate to have. But it is a change of tactics that Al Gore will not be doing the attacking. I think they're trying to address that perception of him as a negative campaigner. MARK SHIELDS: Terry, just in the interest of historical perspective, one will recall that in 1988, it was the great communicator himself, Ronald Reagan, who took the cheapest shot of all at Michael Dukakis, suggesting that Michael Dukakis had been hospitalized after a nervous breakdown and depression and saying I should not attack an invalid, after the Washington Times published that report, totally unsubstantiated and erroneous and fabricated. Bill Clinton is borrowing from the playbook of one of the master politicians. The other thing I think, in fairness to Gore, I think the plan and idea he had about cancer and attacking cancer this week, and making it sort of a man on the moon project was a good one. I mean it is sort of setting a goal. This is what we can do. It's something that isn't just breast cancer. It isn't like he is appealing to a particular constituency or it isn't AIDS. It's cancer. It's a big serious problem. And it's something that, you know, it gives a certain gravitasse and purpose to his campaign which I think has been lacking up until now.
	George W. and the move towards the center
	TERENCE SMITH: Paul, George W. Bush has been staking out positions and moving step by step toward the center. How is that going? PAUL GIGOT: Well, you saw this week a continuation of his attempt to play on the Democratic turf with the speech on the environment and doing what every Republican does, which is quote Teddy Roosevelt. And so far it's worked for him. I mean it really has. He's using the environment a little bit differently than some of the other ones. This is more defensive. I mean he is trying to say, trying to prevent Gore from using it against him. He is trying to develop some armor, if you will, saying look, I've talked about these issues. He had small proposals to basically, consistent with conservative Republican principles, to use the private sector and local government as opposed to the federal government purchasing land -- private conservation projects -- a little different than what he has been doing on education and Social Security where he has been going on the offensive and saying, look, I think I can really make some votes here by hitting Gore on accountability and education, taking the positions which his constituents won't let him go. This week was purely defensive but it's smart politics because the vice president really wants to use this against him down the road. TERENCE SMITH: Mark, the other element in the George W. Bush week certainly was his decision to delay the sentence on a capital crime. And that brought up -- in Texas and that brought up again the death penalty as an issue -- a political issue. MARK SHIELDS: It's interesting. First of all the Bush part of it. I thought of 1992, Bill Clinton, then the governor of Arkansas, to prove his toughness, flew home from New Hampshire to all but pull the switch on Ricky Joe Richter, a seriously mentally disabled convicted murderer. And that was so... he wasn't that traditional -- George W. Bush who has been an emphatic supporter, advocate, champion of the death penalty, boastful of the fact that he led the nation, his state did under his stewardship in executions underlined the compassion in compassionate conservative this week for the first time suspending an execution, postponing for 30 days while DNA tests... and I think this was a little defensive, too. In other words, he doesn't want to have on his conscience subsequent proof that somebody was executed who was not, in fact, guilty of the crime. TERENCE SMITH: Indeed he did. But does it also suggest, Paul, a shifting political environment on the death penalty issue? PAUL GIGOT: No question about it. I mean I think this shows that a couple things. One is the way technology, new technology can change politics. The development of DNA technology that can inspect evidence. The public hasn't shifted against the death penalty per se but what it does want to do with this new way of being able to identify evidence is to say let's do everything reasonable to make sure justice is being done. And when Governor Ryan of Illinois came out and said this, it's easier for a Republican with good anti-crime credentials to do it. He knows the Democratic governors and Al Gore, they're not. The Democratic Governor Jean Shaheen of New Hampshire even vetoed a repeal of the death penalty in her state. The other thing that's happening now is that we've seen almost eight or nine years, a decade in real reductions in the rate of crime. New York City, 50 or 60 percent in the rate of murders. And I think the country and the electorate is saying well, maybe let's step back a little bit. There's not that same intensity about the crime issue. And when you have a reduction in the crime rate, you can think a little bit differently about it.
	The New York senate race
	TERENCE SMITH: Mark, another issue, another race became formal this week when Congressman Rick Lazio got the Republican nomination for the Senate in New York. MARK SHIELDS: Right. TERENCE SMITH: How is that race shaping up against First Lady Hillary Clinton? MARK SHIELDS: Well, it's a different race from Giuliani versus Mrs. Clinton, which was a polarizing race, an unorthodox race, a popular Republican mayor from New York City. Now it's more of a traditional race. Now you have a Republican, sort of a mainstream moderate northeastern Republican in Rick Lazio who will be stronger upstate I think than Rudolph Giuliani. I don't think Rudy Giuliani was ever going to be strong because there is a resistance upstate New York to New York City. I don't care if the mayor is a Democrat or a Republican or a liberal or a conservative... it's that's New York City and we're not. But Mrs. Clinton has had six months to get her sea legs. She is a lot better candidate than she was. And Rick Lazio who I think has had a good introduction, a solid introduction, the polls show the race essentially at a dead heat now. He came in, in my judgment, that he came into this race... the problem he has is the spotlight is on him. He doesn't have time for the New Haven tryouts. It is difficult and I think stumbles not like the one he had in the Memorial Day parade, are more likely. TERENCE SMITH: A few seconds, Paul, your view of it, that race? PAUL GIGOT: Who he has to introduce himself will. He is a blank slate. That's a disadvantage because nobody knows him and she has this great celebrity advantage. But it is also an advantage because he can define himself unless she gets it to first by saying Gingrich, Gingrich, Gingrich which seems to be her theme so far. MARK SHIELDS: Gentlemen, thank you both very much.