POLITICAL WRAP
May 19, 2000

Syndicated columnist Mark Shields and David Brooks of the Weekly Standard discuss the week's news, including the China trade debate and the New York Senate race.

Online Special: Election 2000 Online Special: An Interview with George W. Bush Online Special: An Interview with Al Gore May 12, 2000: Shields & Gigot on China trade, George Bush and Rudy Guiliani May 5, 2000: Shields & Gigot on gun control and Social Security proposals April 28, 2000: Shields & Gigot on the Microsoft case, the presidential race March 7, 2000: Shields & Gigot discuss Super Tuesday results. Special Emphasis Debating the Election 2000 agenda Browse the NewsHour's coverage of politics and campaigns.     China Trade Relations Social Security Administration Rudy Guiliani Hillary Clinton	MARGARET WARNER: Now, for more on Giuliani's withdrawal, and its impact on the New York Senate race, we turn to Michael Tomasky, a columnist with New York magazine; and our team of Shields and Brooks-- that's syndicated columnist Mark Shields, and the Weekly Standard's senior editor, David Brooks. Paul Gigot is off tonight. Michael Tomasky, New York Republicans have been waiting for a decision for quite a while now. Are there many people surprised by this? MICHAEL TOMASKY: Yeah, I think there are quite a few people who are surprised. In the last few days the conventional wisdom on this flipped almost hourly by the end. But I think in the last few days people have been leaning toward the conclusion that he probably was going to run, and I think his performance on that nationally-televised interview program last night sort of indicated to people he was going to run. So I think to most New York Republicans, I think this comes as a surprise. MARGARET WARNER: From the people you've talked to, people who are close to him, is it, as he explained, his health decision, or did his - sort of the publicity about all his marital problems play a factor - were a factor as well? MICHAEL TOMASKY: The marital issue may not have been that much of a factor. It was really surprising how quickly that all died away -- and how quickly -- it speaks to his skill, I think, as a communicator, how adroitly he managed to turn the conversation back to being about his health and not about his marital problems. So I don't count them as a huge factor. One thing that I do count as a factor though and this has been true since before the marriage problems, before the prostate diagnosis, and everything, is the fact that I think he was always ambivalent about making this race and about being in the Senate. He showed signs of that, as I say, before any of this strife of the last three weeks, most notably skipping a big fundraising event that was scheduled for him in Rochester because he wanted to go to the New York Yankees home opener in early April. And that was the most dramatic of several signs that indicated to me that his heart wasn't in making this race.
	The personal side of Giuliani
	MARGARET WARNER: David, a lot of New York Republicans have become very impatient with his apparent indecision, and there were some stories … was he playing games with this. But his agonizing seemed very real today. DAVID BROOKS: I was stunned by the press conference -- not by the decision, which you could have bet on at least 50-50. But here is a guy -- he used the word "love" over and over again in that press conference. I mean, I've followed Giuliani a bit, he's a tough guy, he's a guy who used to sit around with his staff reciting lines from "The Godfather," over and over again. But now it was Mr. Love Story, it was the guy who was sensitive, who was talking about growing. It was Oprah Giuliani. And it really was. He's been through an ordeal, and has seemed to come out a better man for it -- someone we applaud for his self, for his happiness as a human being. But I'm not sure it's going to be that great for his political career, because it was not Oprah Giuliani that cleaned up the streets of New York, it was not Oprah Giuliani that cleaned up the Fulton Fish Market from the mafia. It took a battler, and it took the old Giuliani, and if we are seeing a new Giuliani, it will make him a happy person, but I'm not sure it will be great for his political career. MARGARET WARNER: What did you think of his agonizing - and his description of it? MARK SHIELDS: Well, I disagree with David in this sense. I think that Rudy Giuliani -- no one had doubts about Rudy Giuliani, including his severest critics, several of whom I know by a first name basis, about him being mayor. I mean, the city had improved, there's a palpable improvement, there's a sense of optimism in New York, which is totally alien to the city. But the doubts always about Rudy Giuliani were about him as a person. I mean, that was the sniping you get, even from his political supporters, Rudy -- he's selfish, he's self centered, he's mean -- all the rest of it. I think nothing became Rudy Giuliani's public career like his leaving the Senate race today. I mean, there was -- if you can put the two together, a successful mayor and a human being who is considerate to those around him, who does recognize that there is something other than the next Zogby Poll, I think you may have a political future. I saw a man that I thought, boy, that's got governor written all over him today, if the health matter is resolved. DAVID BROOKS: I would travel around with him and travel with him for a whole day, and parts of it would be on the record with your tape recorder with him and he was dazzling, he's among the smartest politicians in America. Then at the end of that you'd be tired, you'd turn off the tape recorder and you'd want to talk about the Yankees, and he was awkward. He was not a normal human being off the record. And maybe this is the new personal Giuliani, which is good for him, I suppose. MARGARET WARNER: All right, Michael. Let's talk about what's coming ahead. Immediately, Congressman Rick Lazio announced he was going to run. One, does he have a lock on the nomination, and two, what kind of competitor will he be? MICHAEL TOMASKY: I think he has a virtual lock on the nomination. The only other person who has declared interest is Peter King, also a long island Congressman, but King has also said just this afternoon that he'll defer to the decision of his party leaders, that means Governor Pataki and Bill Powers, who is the chairman of the state Republican Party. They both seem pretty clearly to want Rick Lazio to be their candidate. The Republicans have their state nominating convention on May 30, and I think we'll have a clear candidate coming out of that, and it will probably be Lazio. There won't be a Republican primary or anything like that, in other words. As to what kind of competitor he'd be, well, he's a pretty good candidate on paper, I think. Being white and Catholic and suburban and from Suffolk County are pretty good things to be when you're running for statewide office in New York. Of course he's going to emphasize obviously that he's from New York, and he's got a moderate record, he's pro-choice for the most part. And he takes away weapon from Hillary, because she could run against Rudy's abrasive personality and the fact that - you know -- black people didn't like him and so forth, and she can't do that with Rick Lazio. So there is a stature gap, I guess the phrase some people have been using today. But he presents different sorts of problems for her.
	A changing campaign
	MARGARET WARNER: Mark, how do you think this changes the dynamic of the race? MARK SHIELDS: Completely, Margaret. You said Rudy versus Hillary, and everybody knew what you were talking about, I mean that was the marquee race. You had two celebrity candidates who were both evoked intense feelings on the part of voters. Somehow Hillary against Rick or Pete or George doesn't have the same kind of ring. And now you've got a more of a generic Democrat versus Republican race, which probably works for the Democrats, in a presidential year in New York. But at the same time, I believed going in that the only candidate that Hillary Clinton could beat was Rudy Giuliani, and I thought the only candidate that Giuliani could beat was Hillary Clinton. And I say right now you have a greater chance with Rick Lazio, if he is the anointed one, of making Hillary Clinton the issue in this campaign, which I don't think Democrats will be pleased with. DAVID BROOKS: Right. It becomes a referendum on Hillary Clinton, it's going to be vote Lazio, he won't get on your nerves. He is a moderate; Michael referred to this. He's for the Brady Bill, he's for federal funding for the arts, he's for family and medical leave, he's pro-choice with the exception of partial birth. So if you look at his National Journal voting rating, it's right down the middle of Congress. That's the kind of Republicans in New York like. MARGARET WARNER: So how does Hillary Clinton and her strategist take aim at him? What do they do? DAVID BROOKS: They're trying to portray him as a real conservative, as a Newt Gingrich conservative. I'm not sure that will be effective. I suspect … they sudden say, this is Hillary Clinton, she'll be a star in the Senate - who do you want representing the great state of New York? MARK SHIELDS: Republicans ran against Jimmy Carter and George McGovern for 25 years. I guess the Democrats can run against Newt for four years or six years. But this at a personal level is a terrible blow, this decision today, because, I mean, Gore versus Bush race is not - has electrified very few people. MARGARET WARNER: You mean this is a personal blow to you? MARK SHIELDS: All of us in the press. I mean, Michael had the home court advantage. But this was one that everybody wanted to cover. If things got slow with Prince George against Prince Al, you could go to New York and have a field day. And I don't think Lazio will rise to that level of interest and intrigue, but I think he'll be a formidable candidate. MARGARET WARNER: Michael, do you agree with that, that this is going to be a less electrifying race for the press? MICHAEL TOMASKY: Yeah, how can you disagree with that. We in New York have watched Rudy for all these years and watched him call people idiot and jerk and all this stuff - just sort of couldn't wait for him to mix it up with Hillary Clinton -- without question it's not a heavyweight title match any more. But I still think that she, she's the story in national terms. If, for example, Rudy had been running against Nita Lowey, Democratic congresswoman from Westchester County, that's a race we wouldn't have been covering yet. When Hillary showed up at Pat Moynihan's farm last July, we started covering this race, we've been covering it intensely ever since. I think that will keep up, but just not quite at the pitch with Rudy in it. MARGARET WARNER: We have to leave this here. But don't go away because you're coming back on another topic. Michael, thank you very much for being with us.