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| POLITICAL WRAP | |
 November 26, 1999 
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Syndicated columnist Mark Shields and Matthew Rees of The Weekly Standard discuss Hillary Clinton's candidacy, Bill Bradley and Al Gore's race for the Democratic nomination and the upcoming Republican presidential debate.
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MARK SHIELDS: Happy Thanksgiving, Margaret. MARGARET WARNER: Well, Matt, Hillary Clinton finally ended the suspense this week. She announced she did think she would run for the Senate. Now, this was sooner than she had planned to announce. Why did she do it? |
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| The First Lady announces | ||||||||||||||
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MARGARET WARNER: Palestinian children. MATTHEW REES: Palestinian children were being poisoned. Her poll ratings had gone way down, 15 points over the span of six or seven months. You had a couple of Democratic elected officials coming out and say that maybe she shouldn't run and they were going to support Mayor Giuliani. She needed to do something to signal that in fact she was in this, she was serious about it, if for no other reason to keep the fund-raising going. And this I think will probably temporarily at least, put to rest some of those doubts as to the seriousness with which she's taking this campaign.
MARK SHIELDS: I think the announcement -- I agree with Matt. The announcement was pushed and accelerated in large part by doubts among Democrats, (a), whether she was going to run; and (b), whether she could win. And by this sort of bold statement, she's quieted those doubts and you won't hear many more Democratic office-holders saying she shouldn't run. And the missteps have been there. She's a first-time candidate. You have to understand this: New York is unlike any place else politically in the United States.
So what we're talking about is - we are talking about spending probably somewhere around $60 million in this campaign to reach about 8 or 9 percent who are undecided, who are really up for grabs. I talked to one Democratic liberal, knee jerk a Democratic liberal a man as I know said to me, "I don't know who I'm going to vote for." I said, "well, I thought you'd vote for Hillary Clinton." He said, "no. I probably would, except Rudy Giuliani saved New York City." I talked to a Republican woman, who is as loyal a Republican woman, she said, "I'd do anything in my power to elect Hillary Clinton." So I mean there's this kind of passion and intensity. Sure, she can turn it around.
MARK SHIELDS: Yes. MATTHEW REES: -- that is going to make it difficult for Mrs. Clinton. And then also Jewish voters. A democrat needs to do quite well with Jewish voters in order to get elected. Mrs. Clinton has had a number of problems, her most recent trip, but also her statement a while back that she might support the creation of a Palestinian state. That's not going to go over real well. And I think that... and the most important number that you pointed out is that 8 or 9 percent that are undecided, which is really extraordinary…a year before an election, that this small a number of people say that they are truly undecided. And it's going to involve a lot of these swing voters. A lot of them may be suburban Jews who right now Mrs. Clinton probably isn't doing very well with. |
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| Bill Clinton: Home alone? | ||||||||||||||
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MARK SHIELDS: Sure. One of the criticisms Judith Hope, the Democratic state chair, said, "Come to New York." That was one of the primarily statements before Mrs. Clinton made her announcement, said, "Come here, move into Chappaqua, we'll get you a cot, if necessary, to the house they bought up there, which is unfurnished." But you have to be a candidate, you have to be here. I don't think there's any question that that was playing very much in their decision. She's abdicated as First Lady. I mean, that's what she's basically done. Bill Clinton is making a sequel of "Home Alone Part 3."
MARGARET WARNER: Do you think she should have the President campaign from her or try to separate herself? I don't know how one does that.
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| Taking off the gloves | ||||||||||||||
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MARK SHIELDS: It has. The Gore campaign is just into attack a day, I mean bang, boom and Bill Bradley, I thought at the time he made a mistake at the debate in Hanover, at Dartmouth College, where he didn't react to Gore's charge on the cost of Bradley's health plan, simply said, "we disagree." And Bill Bradley said, "I'm running a different kind of campaign. I'm running a positive campaign." And people like that.
MARGARET WARNER: But it helps stop the Bradley momentum. MARK SHIELDS: That's right. MARGARET WARNER: How do you see it?
MARK SHIELDS: They are. MATTHEW REES: And I think that for Senator Bradley to have come out this past week and criticize Vice President Gore on the campaign finance abuses is a smart strategy. He does need to show that he's got some fight in him. It's clear if you look at '96, '92 and even 1988 when Vice President Gore...or when then Senator Gore was running, he will be a pit bull, an attack dog and he's learned something from Bill Clinton, which is he should do whatever he has to get elected. |
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| Narrowing the gap | ||||||||||||||
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MATTHEW REES: Well, the poll that's just out tonight, Time Magazine poll, shows that Senator McCain and Governor Bush are now in a statistical dead heat, which I think is the first time that's ever happened... MARGARET WARNER: In New Hampshire?
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| Rumors and innuendo | ||||||||||||||
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MARGARET WARNER: And then, Mark, the stories and op-eds also continue about Senator McCain and his temperament. Admiral Stockdale, another former POW, wrote an op-ed today in the New York Times defending McCain's stability. Explain briefly what that's about and whether you think there's something really going on here, why this story doesn't die.
MATTHEW REES: It just seems to me that if people are going to make a case against John McCain, it shouldn't be on his temperament, it should be on the issues. Republicans have been critical on tobacco, campaign finance, and they should stick with those issues. MARGARET WARNER: All right, gentlemen, we'll have to leave it there. Thank you both. |
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MARGARET
WARNER: For our end of the week political analysis, we turn to syndicated
columnist Mark Shields. And joining him tonight is Matthew Rees of The
Weekly Standard, sitting in for Paul Gigot. Welcome. Happy Thanksgiving.
MATTHEW
REES: Well, I think there was a bit of hemorrhaging going on in her
campaign. There was the problem in Israel where she didn't stand up
and protest when Mrs. Arafat had said that the Israelis are poisoning
Israeli children. Her poll rating system....
MARGARET
WARNER: So can she reverse the momentum, sort of overturn her recent
missteps, Mark, do you think by announcing? Is it sort of a fresh start
for her
I
mean, you think about great national candidates who have tumbled and
crumbled in New York. Gary Hart in '84 fell victim to New York's ethnic
politics. He was going to move the embassy to Jerusalem personally with
a Hertz truck, I mean, you know, hoping to appeal to New York's Jewish
voters concerned with Israel. But he was up against Walter Mondale,
who was a lot better at that particular indoor sport. Jimmy Carter crumbled
there in 1980 against Ted Kennedy. It's a tough, tough place, it really
is. If you can make it there, you can make it anywhere. Can she turn
this around? Sure. But, Margaret, understand this about this race, this
is unlike any other race in the country, even though it is simply Rudy
Giuliani against Hillary Clinton. You have two candidates whose negative
ratings are over 40 in each case. 
MATTHEW
REES: I think... I mean, Hillary has a few problems, one of them being
that she doesn't have as much of a record to run on as Mayor Giuliani
does. A lot of people obviously don't like Mayor Giuliani, but for a
Democrat to get elected in New York, as you know, they have to do extremely
well in New York City. Mayor Giuliani has a real base there in New York
-
MARGARET
WARNER: And then, Mark, what does she do about the elephant in the room
that we haven't even talked about, which is she's married to the President
of the United States who has his own positives and negatives?
But I do think, and as far as Rudy Giuliani is concerned, Rudy Giuliani
has a reputation, deservedly so, of being a pit bull, of always going
one step too far. He did it in the middle of her brouhaha in the Middle
East with Mrs. Sadat - I mean, Mrs. Arafat - excuse me. What you wanted
him to do was talk about the New York Jets, the New York Mets, anything.
He plunged right into it to try and take political advantage of it,
and, if anything, probably helped her a little bit by being... appearing
to be excessive, as he does so frequently.
MATTHEW
REES: I think certainly he can he can be a big help in terms of fundraising
He can certainly help with black voters. It is this difficult question:
How visible should he be and how much should he be doing behind the
scenes? Quite interesting that she chose to make this announcement when
he was not only not present, he was out of the country. I think it's
a real struggle because there are people who are concerned about this
Clinton fatigue. Does he take a prominent role? I think she really wants
to do this as much as she can by herself. 
MARGARET
WARNER: Okay, let's turn to the presidential race -- the Democrats first,
Mark. Now, the last time we looked in at the Democratic side of the
race, we were noticing that Al Gore had seemed to stop the slide, but
since then it's become a lot testier, hasn't it? It's a lot hotter.
John
McCain's running a positive campaign, George Bush is. And people do
like, that but at some point if you're going to vote for somebody, then
he's going to fight for what I believe. And I think the Gandhi approach
sort of wore a little thin. And it was time for Bill Bradley to hit
back and hit back he has. But the Gore -- Gore's just bang, bang, bang
every single day, and that's obviously a strategy is to drive up the
negatives, in an old Republican term made popular by the late Lee Atwater
to drive up the negative feelings toward Bradley. It doesn't help Gore,
it doesn't establish Gore's problem... or remedy his problems, not seen
as a strong leader, not seen as somebody who's independent. But he's...
MATTHEW
REES: I think it does. I mean, Al Gore is in a situation right now where
his unfavorables are just as high as his unfavorables. Bill Bradley's
favorables are much higher. 
MARGARET
WARNER: All right, now, the Republican side of the race, this is the
week that finally George W. Bush is going to actually be in a debate
in New Hampshire at the of the week. Where do you think the race stands
going into this week? 
MATTHEW
REES: In New Hampshire, and that of course is great news for Senator
McCain, suggesting once again that New Hampshire's voters are just as
irascible as ever. The news is not all good, though, for Senator McCain.
In South Carolina where he was supposed to be very strong, he trails
62-15. He's greatly lagging behind Governor Bush in terms of money.
Governor Bush probably has about ten times as much money. And then there's
just a question of...or the issue of Senator McCain may be peaking a
little bit too early. It would be nice if this statistical dead heat
were at the end of January, not at the end of November. 
MARK
SHIELDS: Well, I reported this story, Margaret, and written on it. And
I have no doubt and McCain people have no doubt that John McCain's political
foes within the Republican Party are behind it. It's very much similar
to the tactic used on Michael Dukakis in 1988, that the accusation that
he had had a nervous breakdown, totally fabricated, but once it's like
heroine in the bloodstream. What they've done in this case, and the
McCain people identify Senator Trent Lott, Senator Mitch McConnell and
they also... they see fingerprints directly to the Bush campaign, and
that's what was key about Admiral Stockdale's piece today in the New
York Times. He said he had a call from a friend close to the Bush
campaign who asked about John McCain's weaknesses, and tied to his time
as a prisoner of war. And this really is about as low as it gets. I
mean they were suggesting, well, this guy stayed in solitary confinement,
so he must be loony. That's the subtext of this message. 
And
I really... I find it personally offensive, and I find that John McCain
has 13 people on his Senate staff who have been with him over ten years.
None of them is a practicing masochist, there are no welts on their
persons, and that's rare on Capitol Hill, which has a revolving door
mentality and approach to people coming and leaving Senate staffs. If
he's such a foul-tempered person, how could he possibly lead the fight
for recognition by the United States of Vietnam and forgive his captors?
So, to me - and as well, there was a great story about David Ishfin,
you know, who was an antiwar Democratic student, went over there, made
pro-Hanoi comments. John McCain not only became his friend, he became
his counsel, his confidante, his comforter, his guide, delivered the
eulogy at his funeral. So I think it's dangerous stuff, and if it's
traced to the Bush campaign, which it has not been yet, or has not been,
then I think it's very dangerous for George Bush.