Online NewsHour: Shields and Gigot Political Wrap -- October 18, 1996

PAUL GIGOT, Wall Street Journal: Well, the fallout, there’s already been some fallout because it’s new, and, therefore, it’s news, and the press is interested, and the press is paying attention to this, and digging up new stories every day, so you’re seeing the evening news in the newspapers, reporting something, a story every day that gives Bob Dole another thing to hook into it. And it gives--also gives him a hook to tie into all of the ethical problems that this administration has had and to remind voters of some of those. On this--the Indonesia contribution, in particular, I don’t think we know ultimately what the political fallout will be because the real damage politically would come if we find out that there was a quo for the quid, that something was given in return for the money. We don’t know that yet, and if there is something, if that does turn up, then I think there could be some real political fallout, maybe not before the election but in a second term.

ELIZABETH FARNSWORTH: Mark, do you think there could be some real political fallout?

MARK SHIELDS, Syndicated Columnist: Yes, I do. I think it’s interesting that this has seemed to capture imagination. I think Paul’s right, that the independent news reports do give it a life that, that it wouldn’t have had previously, that--if Sen. Dole were raising it, but, no, I mean, Mark Hannah said it at the turn of the century, the legendary Republican king maker, there are only two things that matter in politics, Elizabeth, and he said, money is the first, and I can’t remember the second, and, uh, this is, this is real. I mean, there’s no question about this. Nothing that kills curiosity more for hardy fund-raising than somebody shows up with $100,000.

You don’t ask him where he came from; you don’t ask him where he lives; and, uh, it is kind of intriguing, however, to see why money from Indonesian families has an influence of $400,000, where, as they pointed out in the previous segment with Margaret, $2 million contributions go sort of ho-hum ignored. I mean, there is a certain xenophobic quality, I think, the idea of foreign influence, but they’ve already gotten their pro quo. I remember the President’s picture when he visited Indonesia, that terrible, terrible sports shirt, and he put that on, he looked--made Mr. Blackwell’s Worst Dress List that day, so I think that was pro quo for the money.

ELIZABETH FARNSWORTH: Paul, this is part of a, of a new mode of campaigning, or at least somewhat new by Bob Dole. He’s been attacking the campaign contribution issue and using wedge issues, immigration, affirmative action in California.

ELIZABETH FARNSWORTH: Plus the character issue continually. Do you think this is going to work, going to make any difference?

MR. GIGOT: Well, if nothing else has worked, you might as well try something else, so I think it’s tied intimately into the biggest decision that the Dole people have made and are making in the last weeks, which is to go for California. And their judgment is that California, 1/5 of all the electoral votes you need, 56, if you’re behind in Michigan, you’re behind in Ohio, you’re behind in New Jersey, and you need all of those. You might as well go for California, you can invest your money there, and they feel they have a couple of issues there, in particular immigration, illegal immigration and then this ballot initiative, this California Civil Rights initiative which President Clinton opposes and which I think is going to become a very big issue in the next two weeks in this election.

The Republicans think that they can attach themselves to this, draw a distinction between the parties, and give voters in California a sense and, you know, most voters in this country, and this is the real Republican--but not paying any attention to this election. They’ve been falling asleep all around America. They want--Republicans want to give voters a stake and give their base vote a reason to come out because they want to remind ‘em why they don’t like Bill Clinton and what the risks of a second term are, and so if they can do that, they figure even if Bob Dole can’t maybe make up that dozen or fifteen point deficit, he can at least get closer, and then they can save the Congress.

ELIZABETH FARNSWORTH: Uh huh. Mark, do you have anything to add to that, that description of the strategy in California?

MR. SHIELDS: No. I think it’s a pretty accurate description. The Republican voters whom Bob Dole is trying to energize and galvanize at this point, Elizabeth, share two values alone, and they are first, a dislike and a disapproval of taxes and a disapproval of Bill Clinton. And I think those are the two that Bob Dole is trying to appeal to, and I think he will also--you can see a certain whiff of desperation in his closing statement the other night about a flag burning amendment, and a, a balanced budget amendment when he can’t give where he’s going to cut for his taxes, and a prayer amendment that’s sort of reaching, trying to get back to base. I think Paul is right. There--there’s sort of a sense of inevitability about the Dole campaign right now, but if they can, there are six House seats in California hang in the balance, both parties acknowledge could go either way, if they all go Democratic, then the chances of the Republicans holding onto the House are pretty darned slim.

ELIZABETH FARNSWORTH: And, Mark, what about the Clinton campaign, what kind of decisions are they making right now about the future?

MR. SHIELDS: Well, I think the concern I heard expressed after Wednesday night in San Diego is essentially from veterans of the Dukakis campaign who thought that the President had been too passive; he hadn’t answered, he hadn’t answered Bob Dole’s charges, and they feared that the echo chamber in the press that support Dole, and Bob Dole, the Republicans, themselves, would be able to charge stonewalling and Fifth Amendment and bobbing and weaving.

I think there’s a sense that the President has to respond at some point, has to get a little sharper, uh, in his rebuttal of the, of the charges, uh, but you can see--I mean, Bob Dole is visiting states that historically, whether it’s Virginia, haven’t voted Democratic since Lyndon Johnson in 1964--there’s still a sense of, of confidence on the part of the Democrats that they’re going to try and reach states, Texas, that Bob Dole had previously had in his safe Republican column or had been, not in this election, but had been regarded as Republican almost in perpetuity.

ELIZABETH FARNSWORTH: Paul, is there any evidence that some Republican congressional candidates are running away from Dole?

MR. GIGOT: Well, I don’t know that they’re running away from Dole. I haven’t seen a lot of criticism of Dole. I’ve seen none really by Republican candidates. They’re running their own campaigns. They’ve adopted Tip O’Neill’s old dictum that all politics is local this year, and they’re focusing their campaigns on their opponents, on their specific accomplishments in Congress, and if Bob Dole comes through, for example, Dole is going to Kansas, where you would expect him to be a little popular on behalf of Sam Brownback, Senate candidate there, uh, he’s going up to New Hampshire later on behalf of a couple of candidates as well.

Um, what I think you’re seeing though is Bob Dole, the party man, emerge here. If he is going to lose, he is not going to lose and take out the Congress with him, so you’re seeing him try to talk about issues that are going to try to retain the Congress, and go to states and to races where he thinks they can make a difference, and, you know, in this fight within the Dole campaign and the Republican Party about whether or not you go for California, two of the biggest voices for going, arguing for going for California, were Newt Gingrich, Speaker of the House, and Haley Barbour, the chairman of the Republican National Committee. And they want to save the House.

ELIZABETH FARNSWORTH: And, Mark, are we also going to see President Clinton as a party man here?

MR. SHIELDS: Well, that’s a question that remains. I mean, the President has not--did not mention the Congress the other night, or a Democratic Congress, and he probably would be more effective if he simply selected races where he endorsed candidates, candidate Jones, without talking in cosmic terms of a, of a Democratic Congress, because Americans, as a wise man once said, hate gridlock, but love divided government. As far as California’s concerned, uh, I don’t know anybody who realistically thinks Bob Dole can carry California. He’s never been able to crack 40 in any poll out there, and we may be looking, Elizabeth, at something that’s never happened before in American history, and that is if Bob Dole doesn’t close the gap, two consecutive elections where a major party candidate, namely George Bush and Bob Dole, did not crack 40 percent, if that’s the case, then that’s going to--that’s going to lead to gnashing and introspection and well into 1998.

ELIZABETH FARNSWORTH: Now, Mark, for that to happen, the Democrats have to come out to vote which President Clinton--

ELIZABETH FARNSWORTH: --has been expressing some worry about in his speeches. Do you think there is some concern they won’t come out?

MR. SHIELDS: I think, I think there is. I mean, there’s a--there’s not an intensity or passion. That’s why I think the defining of the differences is important for Bill Clinton and the Democrats to do in the last few weeks. I do think that the emergence of Speaker Gingrich has been serendipitous for the Democrats because they’ve been running against him. I just left Madison, Wisconsin, where Scott Klug, the incumbent Republican congressman, is in good shape but he has a spot on the air, a television spot, uh, emphasizing his, that he is not Newt Gingrich, where Newt Gingrich’s face morphs into his, and he said, you know, anybody who thinks I’m Newt Gingrich has the wrong picture. Uh, and I think that, that may be enough for some Democrats to get them re-energized and re-interested in this race.

ELIZABETH FARNSWORTH: Okay, Paul, just one second left. Anything to say about that, about getting out the vote?

MR. GIGOT: Well, that’s, that’s the great fear of Republicans right now. It’s Democrats--the great fear is that Republicans seeing Bob Dole maybe not being able to win are so demoralized they don’t turn out, so that’s why they’re really trying to focus on issues that will get them out.

Program
Support
From:

POLITICAL WRAP

OCTOBER 18, 1996

TRANSCRIPT