POLITICAL WRAP

October 29 , 1999
		Weekly Standard senior editor David Brooks and Boston Globe columnist Tom Oliphant discuss the Democratic and Republican town hall meetings.

Campaign Links Special Emphasis: What are the topics America's leaders need to address? Online Forum: What issues do you think should shape election 2000? Oct. 28, 1999: One-on-one with Patrick Buchanan Oct. 22, 1999: One-on-one with Bill Bradley Oct. 5, 1999: Al Gore's campaign moves to Tennessee Sept. 27, 1999: Dan Quayle drops out of the presidential race Sept. 23, 1999: A Steve Forbes campaign snapshot. Sept. 22, 1999: A look at the Patrick Buchanan campaign Sept. 9, 1999: The Post's Thomas Edsall on the Bradley campaign Sept. 1, 1999: The Post's Dan Balz on the McCain campaign Aug. 16, 1999: The Post's Dan Balz and Kevin Meridan the Iowa straw poll April 21, 1998: A Newsmaker interview with John McCain Nov. 28, 1996: John McCain on campaign finance reform Browse the NewsHour's coverage of the White House.	JIM LEHRER: Now, analysis of last night's Republican event as well as the Democrats' on Wednesday night. We get it from Boston Globe columnist Tom Oliphant, and David Brooks, senior editor at the Weekly Standard. Mark Shields and Paul Gigot are both off tonight. First, last night's Republican event. Tom, what struck you as the most important thing that happened? TOM OLIPHANT: The most... leaving Bush aside, for a second, leaving Governor Bush aside, John McCain has gone to ground in New Hampshire for the last month. Traveling all over the state, pushing very hard -- a different version of what he's been saying in the last several months; namely, that reform can be a conservative word. And people saw it last night I think in a larger audience for the first time and also saw somebody really working for it now. McCain is sometimes a laidback figure. But on Thursday night he was a wired figure. He was working for it. And I think after it was all over, most of the talk was about him. JIM LEHRER: You agree, David?
	The Republicans at Dartmouth
	DAVID BROOKS: Yes. I think it was. I would say the most important thing was that George W. (Bush) slept in his bed in Austin and didn't come up there, because there are two things the Republicans want answered from the debates. The first one is how lightweight is George W. Bush? Can he take the pressure? He wasn't there to answer that question. The second is something Tom referred to, which is that John McCain and George Bush, too, are trying to move the party away from New Gingrich and Dick Armey and Barry Goldwater - that whole movement of conservatism which was an antigovernment movement - that's something McCain and Bush are moving away from. What they talk about is limited but energetic government. They talk about using government in an affirmative way and a conservative way. They talk about restoring faith in public service. What they're doing is they're going back to a Teddy Roosevelt, Abraham Lincoln style of Republicanism. Teddy Roosevelt said I'm the hero of San Juan Hill; only you can trust me to reform government, to take the on those special interests. Well, who's saying that today? That's John McCain. So - just if I could finish, Steve Forbes came to the debate yesterday armed to the teeth to take this on. He was going to call it tax-and-spend conservatism. But because Bush wasn't there and because the way the questions were asked, he didn't get a chance to launch that argument but it's an argument the Republican Party has to have. TOM OLIPHANT: Indeed before the debate, the many people who are well paid by the Forbes campaign were circulating these rather large tomes documenting sins of spending and taxation by Governor Bush... JIM LEHRER: In Texas? TOM OLIPHANT: Yes, as governor. And then just not delivered. Whereas McCain came to that debate armed with stuff he was going to put out, which he then did. And I was struck, not just by him, but by some of the others about how thoroughly put together their campaigns are intellectually at this point. And that is a distinction with Governor Bush, I would argue at this point. JIM LEHRER: What do you mean, Tom? TOM OLIPHANT: Well, McCain on taxes I think would be a good example last night. He's saying, look, that thing that passed Congress and Clinton vetoed a month or two ago, half of it was just special interest garbage that weighed it down. If you have real reform, you won't have those special interest goodies in a tax cut bill; you'll have rate cuts for people. That was his message. Reform can work for conservatives. Governor Bush is still a ways away from even having a position on taxes. DAVID BROOKS: I'm not sure I agree with that. I think he has given speeches which were tremendously effective and intellectually coherent, Governor Bush. What he said he - I stand for governing conservatism -- not the opposition conservatism of Newt Gingrich and Dick Armey, not the no, no, no. He said I stand for using government. He and McCain both say that, but they say it in different spheres. Bush is more comfortable talking about education, charity, poverty programs, using government very specifically in those areas. McCain is less comfortable talking about that; he's more comfortable talking about national reform, international activism. JIM LEHRER: What about the fight that's going on to the right of those two men, essentially between Forbes and Bauer at this point? How did that appearance last night affect that, do you think? DAVID BROOKS: Well, the amazing thing, the first... let's talk about the context. This was a party run by the conservative movement, by the Goldwaterites three years ago. The two major candidates, the two top contenders are not in the tradition - McCain and Bush are not in that Goldwater tradition. Bauer and Forbes are fighting for that tradition. And I would say on the conservative buzz over the past year, over the past few weeks, has been the fall of Steve Forbes. He's been running for office for five years. He spent $60 million. He's at 4 percent nationally, he's almost nowhere in New Hampshire. He's slightly above Bauer and Keyes and Hatch, and so they're fighting over what is turning out to be a small rump. And I think Bauer is doing quite a good job in part because Forbes is bleeding -- just interest among his true believers is bleeding. TOM OLIPHANT: There is a substantive element, I think, to it as well. Bauer's economic version of flat tax is a little bit more populist, a little bit more aimed downscale. You could almost sense last night him aiming for whatever left of the Pat Buchanan vote in 1996. Listen to what he said on education... immigration rather - JIM LEHRER: That is a Pat Buchanan issue. TOM OLIPHANT: Indeed, very much so. But it's at the margins and you can feel it there. There is this incredible prosperity in New Hampshire. This is not an angry state the way it was eight years ago. And I think the politics on the Republican side reflects that.
	The front runner from Texas
	JIM LEHRER: Speaking in pure political terms now, what does the fact that George W. Bush was not there last night, what does that mean and how does that hurt Bush, if at all? TOM OLIPHANT: Well, this is the third or fourth element running in a story running for four weeks now. You don't come here enough. They say that in Iowa too; when you come, you don't say much. Your positions really aren't that fleshed out in the sense that they make sense to an individual voter. And you got to start working for it. Now he can change all that in a New York minute. But there has been... JIM LEHRER: A New Hampshire minute. TOM OLIPHANT: New Hampshire minute, it takes longer. That's about 95 seconds, I think, the last I heard. So he can change it. But the dynamic for the last month has been one thing after another and really for the last week all he communicated in New Hampshire was why he wasn't coming. JIM LEHRER: Does he hurt himself? DAVID BROOKS: Yes. I think he has. First, it's a sign is he too smug? And in New Hampshire, they're only allowed to be smug. No one else is allowed to be smug in New Hampshire. But, secondly because he needs practice. The guy has not been out debating. There were some weird questions last night about marijuana, industrial hemp or whatever. JIM LEHRER: And more are coming. DAVID BROOKS: You need practice. So, he needs some help on that. Finally, he is going to show up and debate finally, and when that comes, us media types are going to be there in force. And if he had shown up at all, no individual debate would be so important. But if he only shows up at a few, each one is mammoth. And a mistake there becomes catastrophic.
	The Democrats at Dartmouth
	JIM LEHRER: The Democrats -- your analysis of how Gore did the other night, David. DAVID BROOKS: I'm a little outside what I see the polls are today. I thought Bradley wiped the floor with him. I thought Bradley said - came out and said, I'm a grown-up guy. I'm sitting here telling you what I believe. Al Gore struck me, he took the focus group Viagra...and he just came out and said - JIM LEHRER: What? You said focus group Viagra? DAVID BROOKS: Yes. Somebody compared him to an animal that had been caged up, and they let him loose, and he was oozing empathy and doing these cheap tricks. I thought the trick of staying later after the cameras and going on for another 90 minutes, somebody said it looked like a kid who volunteers for more homework. I though it just looks artificial. And that plays into the line the Bradley people have been pitching, which is that he's the authentic candidate and Gore is the synthetic candidate. Bradley is dull but dignified; Gore is Cheese Whiz. And I think that debate to me, that underlined that Bradley line. JIM LEHRER: Tom. TOM OLIPHANT: That's a lot of certainty which I can't match. JIM LEHRER: Try. TOM OLIPHANT: A little bit more agnostic, perhaps. Maybe as a little clue to what I thought was happening. You know, everybody gets asked who's your favorite President. That's a standard one. I don't know if Bush is ready for it, but these guys get it all the time. JIM LEHRER: He better say Bush... (laughter among group)… TOM OLIPHANT: Exactly. That's easy. But Senator Bradley has always for some obscure reason excluded James K. Polk in his pantheon of heroes. And on Wednesday night James K. Polk was missing. And I'm thinking why is that? I think he is beginning to realize that he is the favorite in New Hampshire and perhaps in the Northeast, and he's adjusting to it a little bit awkwardly. And I think his own people had a little problem with his performance Wednesday night because they thought he might have been a little stiff and a little bit standoffish. JIM LEHRER: But is that the natural Bill Bradley? THOMAS PICKERING: Mostly. I didn't think he was as much engaged in the audience as he is in his meetings when you almost feel like you're having a conversation with him. It's that intimate and successful…a little less so Wednesday night. Gore, people could see what's going on for the last six weeks. It appears to have stabilized the situation in New Hampshire. One reason I shrink from David's certainty here.... DAVID BROOKS: I said I was outside the mainstream. TOM OLIPHANT: You know - I hear what you're saying and I think it's entirely valid. What holds me back is that I have experienced some of this Gore - these Gore meetings. They can go on for two or three hours. I mean, he stays until the last question is asked. It could be UFO's, it could be paving roads in northern New Hampshire. He'll just stay. And some people in the national press had an opportunity Wednesday night to actually see what this is like. You walked into that room afterwards. He sat there for two hours on the stage with his feet dangling over -- with his wife, just having a conversation. And it works. There is a personal connection that goes on. And it is a different kind of relationship between Gore and voters than there was, say in September. What's different is that this is a close race. It feels like Ford-Reagan in 1976. And that's what holds me back from saying one of them is pulling way out in front. JIM LEHRER: But are the two of you are talking from two different perspectives? You're talking about the way they project on television. You're talking about the way they project close-up - in other words, retail-wholesale. TOM OLIPHANT: Well, yes, except the coverage of Gore in New Hampshire and Iowa is more intimate, also and I think that accounts for some of the stabilizing that's gone on. JIM LEHRER: Do you agree, David, with what Tom said, that the race feels close? DAVID BROOKS: Oh, absolutely. I mean the polls are now within four or five points. And you can sense it in the way Gore is attacking. His people clearly think he's best on the attack. To me, again it's a little weird. It's like watching an eagle scout trying to mug somebody. I don't find him persuasive. But I think the thing they know is that he can't be defensive. And there's also the question of how much Bradley wants this. If the race gets nasty, Bradley's always been this aloof guy. Is he really going to fight back? TOM OLIPHANT: Example. JIM LEHRER: Save for another time. Thank you both, gentlemen.