"For the first time in humanity, we are seeing, or we
may be seeing, pandemic influenza evolving in front of our eyes," WHO
Director-General Dr. Margaret Chan told a meeting of her U.N. agency's World
Health Assembly in Geneva.
But Chan says she is not raising the world swine flu alert
level just yet. The epidemic is in "a grace period" with the WHO
alert remaining at phase 5 out of a possible six for the last month. She told
the WHO's annual assembly that no one can say how long this period will last.
Chan says the danger now is that the swine flu virus could
mix with other flu strains and become more dangerous.
"Unlike the avian virus, the new H1N1 virus spreads
easily from person to person, spreads rapidly within a country once it becomes
established, and is spreading rapidly to new countries. We expect this pattern
to continue," she said.
Chan said H1N1 may pose a particular risk when it mixes with
the H5N1 avian flu virus, which is now "entrenched" in poultry in
several countries.
"No one can say how this avian virus will behave when
pressured by large numbers of people infected with the new H1N1 virus,"
she said.
Britain, Japan, China and other nations urged WHO to change
the way it decides to declare a pandemic, saying the agency must consider how
deadly the virus is, not just how fast it is spreading.
The debate arose as WHO began its annual meeting, a five-day
event attended by hundreds of health experts from the agency's 193 member
nations. The focus of the summit will be to discuss how to fight the virus with
vaccines and drugs, as well as what would trigger the WHO to declare a full
pandemic.
Also Monday, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
reported that the new strain is circulating in 48 U.S. states and has showed no
signs of abating, with five deaths and more than 5,000 confirmed cases. Around
the globe, the virus has been confirmed in 8,829 people in 40 countries,
killing 74 -- mostly in Mexico.
Experts have said more than 100,000 people are likely
infected with the virus, which appears mild but is still worrisome since most
patients are young adults, teens and children.
Last month, WHO raised its global pandemic alert level to 5
on a 6-point scale in response to the spread of H1N1 in North America, which
has had 95 percent of the nearly 9,000 confirmed infections to date.
WHO has said it is watching the situation in Japan closely,
but it was not clear yet whether the outbreak, the largest outside the
Americas, would trigger a move to level 6.
Under WHO rules, signs that the disease is spreading in a
sustained way in a second region of the world would prompt a declaration that a
full pandemic is under way. Other large clusters have been seen in Spain and
Britain.
A WHO designation of phase 6 flu would put countries on even
higher alert about the flu strain and give more impetus to pharmaceutical efforts
to fight it.
Chan and U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon will meet top
pharmaceutical executives on Tuesday to discuss their ability to make vaccines
to fight the strain. Delegates will seek an agreement on how samples of the
virus should be handled and shared with pharmaceutical companies.