Oct. 10, 2002 -- In a House race that has pitted a genial matriarch against a tough-talking self-styled man of the people, the voters of the newly drawn 5th District in Connecticut are faced with choosing between two seasoned incumbents previously perceived as holding similarly moderate platforms.

Connecticut lost a seat in the House after the 2000 census revealed population growth in the state had slowed. The newly drawn congressional map combined parts of Republican Nancy Johnson's 6th District in the northwest corner of the state with Democrat James Maloney's 5th District, its narrower neighbor to the south.

The new 5th district meshed roughly half of the voters from each of the candidate's former districts, although Johnson's camp is fond of pointing out that 55 percent come from her original 6th District. There are some 13,000 more registered Democrats than Republicans in the new district, but the area is not solidly in either partisan camp since 42 percent of voters in the new 5th are registered as independent. The unpredictable nature of this new constituent base has made the race for the political middle all the more critical as the leadership of the House teeters on a handful of seats.

Most political pundits immediately deemed the race a toss-up. But an independent poll released Oct. 8 by the University of Connecticut gave Johnson a commanding 16-point lead over Maloney. The poll showed that 50 percent of likely voters in the new 5th favored Johnson compared to 34 percent for Maloney, with another 18 percent still undecided.

Johnson, who has served 10 consecutive terms in the House representing the 6th District, has compiled a moderate voting record and is not afraid of straying from the Republican leadership. A prolific legislator, she has championed health care issues and was the first woman to be named to the influential Ways and Means Committee.

"I've never come home and said 'Republicans tell me to vote this way.'" Reuters quoted Johnson as saying. "I come home and say 'this is good for Connecticut and this is why.'"

A fundraising dynamo, Johnson's war chest is substantially larger than Maloney's. At the end of June, Johnson had over $2 million cash on hand to Maloney's $520,000, according to the Center for Responsive Politics.

Maloney, who has fared well in the blue-collar towns of central Connecticut with his blunt campaigning style, is a three-term congressman. The moderate Democrat offers a platform in many ways similar to Johnson on health care, environment and national defense issues. Maloney also has proudly bucked the Democratic leadership in the past, particularly in the tax cut arena.

Maloney's camp immediately called the UConn poll erroneous and instead referred to a separate poll conducted by a Democratic pollster. The Maloney poll shows the two candidates in a dead heat with 42 percent each in voter support and another 13 percent undecided.

"They didn't get it this time. It happens," Maloney said of the UConn poll, according to the Associated Press.

Aggressive campaign tactics including negative ads criticizing Johnson's record appear to be backfiring for Maloney who has seen bitter battles in the past for his congressional seat. He managed to surmount an 18 point poll lead when challenging Republican Gary Franks for the 5th district House seat in 1996, an election he went on to win 52 to 46 percent.

According to the UConn poll, 32 percent of voters thought Maloney's campaign has been negative compared to 18 percent who felt the same about Johnson, indicating that the negative tactics combined with the threat of a war with Iraq may be causing Maloney to lose part of his Democratic base.

UConn's associate poll director, David Yalof, told the Hartford Courant that the poll represents a "significant jump" for Johnson. "All we can say is that in the last two weeks, the tone of the campaign has turned negative, and this is obviously having an impact that is helping Johnson."