Oct. 29, 2002 -- Voters in downstate Illinois are facing the final stretch of an unpredictable race between two incumbent congressmen for the newly drawn 19th district and if recent polls are any indication, the mostly blue collar constituency may be leaning towards three-term Republican John Shimkus over two-term Democrat David Phelps.

The "new 19," composed of roughly 34 percent of Phelps' old 19th and 60 percent of Shimkus' old 20th district, appears to lean Republican, having voted for President Bush in 2000 by 58 percent. That Republican lean, along with a robust campaign war chest, seems to be working in Shimkus' favor. A Public Opinion Strategies poll run last week for Republican camp gave him a 52 to 36 percent lead over Phelps.

For its part, the Phelps' campaign does not feel that the Republican polls reflect the state of the race on the ground. Crystal Litz, Phelps' campaign manager, told the Online NewsHour that the polls are "not in line with how anybody is viewing the race" and that Shimkus would not be resorting to recent "100 percent" negative campaign tactics if he really believed he was that far ahead.

Phelps, a conservative Blue Dog Democrat, agrees with Shimkus on several controversial issues including being opposed to abortion and anti-gun control. The candidates tend to part ways on other domestic issues such as tax cuts, social security and Medicare.

The two have also sparred over the rising costs of health care and prescription drugs, an issue Shimkus called the number one problem facing the country.

"We need to look at the pharmaceutical companies that might be gaming the system and keeping patents on their drugs longer than they need to in order to recover their costs," The Telegraph quoted Shimkus as saying on the issue that has dominated congressional races across the country.

Shimkus has had the more successful fundraising run, gathering over $1.4 million for his re-election to Phelps who has raised some $782,000. According to the Center for Responsive Politics, neither candidate is leaving a penny unspent as Shimkus had some $101,000 left as of October 16 and Phelps had approximately $168,000 on Sept. 30.

As part of a new campaign push, automated phone calls made on behalf of the Shimkus campaign began in late October, broadcasting a message that Phelps "supports higher taxes for families and small business" and that Phelps voted against President Bush's tax cut. The message ended by encouraging voters to call Phelps and tell him his "tax-and-spend" policies are out of touch with Illinois voters.

The Phelps' camp said the message was full of "lies and distortion" about the Democrat's record and said that their candidate supports tax breaks for families and small business. Phelps did vote against a recent economic stimulus plan out of concern that the majority of the benefits would go to large corporations.

"We are two weeks from the election and we have yet to see a positive commercial or hear a positive statement come from the Shimkus campaign," Congressman Phelps said of the telephone tactic in a statement. "At least I sang a song on one of my commercials... but all Mr. Shimkus has done is dance around his record. I hope I never get so desperate to win an election that I have to resort to spreading lies over the airwaves and to peoples homes on their answering machines."

The Shimkus campaign has said that the calls were funded by a third party and that, "every single thing in that phone message is 100 percent correct," Steve Tomaszewski, press secretary for Shimkus, told to the Illinois Leader.

Both candidates have engaged in aggressive media campaigns. Shimkus grabbed headlines with one of his early TV ads, which accused the Phelps campaign of allegedly stalking the candidate and his family. Shimkus claims that Phelps' staffers follow him and his family while secretly filming and photographing them at public events. He challenged Phelps to clean up his campaign, saying he thought the race between the two devout Christians would be different.

Phelps responded to the stalking allegations in an early September press conference saying, "I'm sure that John Shimkus did not mean to imply that I am personally stalking him. Still he hasn't apologized to me for his absurd claim."

The two men are scheduled to meet in a live televised debate on October 31.