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Ask
Joe Hoeffel and he will tell you, he has never had an easy campaign.  "I'm
a Democrat from a Republican community, a Republican county," Hoeffel said
last week. "Every election I have had I have had to work very hard to hold
the Democratic voters and to attract moderate and independent Republican voters.
And I think that has honed my skills, made me open to all sides of a debate."
Now
the three-term congressman is taking his hard-won campaign skills into the toughest
fight of his career; the 53-year-old hopes to unseat four-term U.S. Senator Arlen
Specter this fall.
Despite the
difficulties of ousting a senator who has been in office 24 years,
state party Chairman T.J. Rooney argues Joe Hoeffel has "a
tremendous opportunity to win this race."
"Joe
Hoeffel is a fighter. He knows what it's like to run in elections where he is
the underdog. He knows what it's like to scrape and to get out there," Rooney
said.
Hoeffel's
hopes have been bolstered by a bruising Republican primary that
left Specter badly bloodied. Specter,
a noted maverick that bolted his party in heated partisan fights
over President Clinton's impeachment and other matters, faced
an unexpectedly strong challenge from U.S. Rep. Pat Toomey.
Toomey,
who blasted Specter as a liberal who did not represent the Republican Party, gained
momentum and support as the primary campaign wore on. For political observers,
the Toomey's popularity further indicated Specter's mediocre support among voters.
"There
is something that I have written about called 'Specter Fatigue'
and that refers not to his age -- as I keep saying not the number
74 -- but the number 24, you know, for the amount of time he has
served," said G. Terry Madonna, of Franklin and Marshall
College's Center for Politics and Public Affairs.
"No
one will ever use the word 'Specter' and 'beloved' in the same sentence. No one
gets up in the morning and says 'Gee, I'm having lunch with Arlen Specter' and
look forward to it," Madonna added. In
the end, with the support of President Bush and the state's junior senator, Rick
Santorum, Specter beat back Toomey's challenge, eking out a 16,500-vote victory
out of more than a million cast. The fight cost the Specter campaign nearly $15
million and energized Democrats eager to topple the four-termer. "Anytime
you have to spend $15 million to win a primary, you know that there is a schism
out there somewhere and I don't think there are a lot of supporters of Congressman
Toomey that are going to be jumping out of their skin to send Arlen Specter back
to the United States Senate for six years," Democratic Chairman Rooney said.
"There are a lot of Republicans in Pennsylvania that feel he doesn't represent
their values." Hoeffel
points out that the president's support may affect Specter's appeal to moderates
in the state. "There
is no question that the president's endorsement won the primary victory for Senator
Specter and he has been showing his gratitude by voting with the president, dropping
any criticism of the president's record," Hoeffel said. "Senator Specter
used to be a moderate and a maverick, but he is neither of those any more. He's
just not the senator he used to be." Despite
the apparent troubles in the Specter campaign, Hoeffel still faces massive hurdles
to victory this November. The Hoeffel campaign, according to most experts, needs
$3-5 million to mount a winning campaign in the state. Also, the Philadelphia-area
congressman needs to build name recognition in other parts of the state. "He
will need money to make that happen," Nathan Gonzales, an analyst with the
Rothenberg Political Report, told the Philadelphia Inquirer. "In a state
like Pennsylvania, with one very expensive media market and lesser expensive markets,
it takes time to get known." So
far, the campaign has relied on media coverage and grassroots activism to fuel
its efforts. But party activists and political analysts say Hoeffel will need
to invest in television and radio advertising. "He
needs name recognition and he really needs to separate himself, to give us a reason
to make a change," said Tina Mengine, a delegate who works in the office of the
mayor of Erie. "Erie, as it stands, is probably not going to swing his way."  Hoeffel's
coffers are slowly filling; he raised more than a million dollars in the last
three months. However,
Republicans outpaced Hoeffel in fundraising, accruing $2.3 million in the same
three months. He also is trailing Specter in the polls, 51 to 36 percent according
to the latest Quinnipiac University poll released July 14.
But
two wildcards may still influence the outcome of the campaign.
One is the
evolving role Gov. Ed Rendell will play this fall. Election watchers
have said the popular Democratic governor, who cruised to an 8-point
victory in 2002, may not be an active force for Hoeffel.
"[Hoeffel]
ain't getting any help -- despite what they say and despite all that you will
read about -- from Ed Rendell. Ed Rendell and Arlen Specter are close. Rendell
got his first job from Arlen Specter," Madonna said. "Ed will do some
fundraisers for him and he will never say this, but he is not going to go out
and raise a million dollars for him and he could." Democrats
dismiss the allegation, saying Rendell, as the de facto leader of the state party,
is committed to seeing Hoeffel elected. The
party faithful also hope for additional help from an unexpected source, a third
party challenger who could siphon support from the embattled Specter. James
Clymer, the national chairman of the conservative Constitution Party, has begun
collecting signatures to run as an independent in the race. If he collects enough
to appear on the ballot, Rooney argues Clymer "will certainly have tremendous
appeal among those primary voters who supported Mr. Toomey." Despite
trailing Specter by 15 points, analysts and party activists insist that as Hoeffel
begins running ads statewide, the race will become increasingly competitive.
"Anybody
who underestimates Joe Hoeffel or suggests that that race is Arlen's
to loose, I think, is in for a surprise," state Democratic
Chairman Rooney said.
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By Lee Banville, Online NewsHour
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